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Thread: House/Senate Races 2020

  1. #21
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Here are the very close House seats:

    Democratic districts
    ============
    CA-39 R +0.4 84%
    IL-14 R +0.6 77%
    NY-3 R +1.5 71%
    PA-6 R +0.4 73%

    Vulnerable districts
    ============
    CA-48 R +0.6 92%
    IA-3 D +1.4 95%
    AZ-6 D +0.6 80%
    CA-25 D +1.0 82%
    TX-24 R +1.4 93%

    Republican Districts
    ============
    CA-8 R +1.4 55%

    That's 10 races. 7 Republican leaning, 3 Democrat leaning at the moment.

    If it stays as-is, then it's 218-217 Republican.

    However, good chance Republicans lose CA-39, IL-14, and PA-6. Decent chance Democrats lose CA-25 and AZ-6.

    So I agree with you. Looks 218-217 either way to me.

    UPDATE

    Democrats are taking PA-6 and one other I didn't expect in Democratic districts. A few others are close. If everything holds as-is, Democrats will keep 204 of the 209 "safe" Democratic races.

    IA-3 is likely to stay D, but Dems are going to hold 3 others where Republicans were leading when I analyzed this last night. IA-2 is a virtual tie right now. If it stays this way, Republicans will pick up 10-11 seats from "vulnerable Democrat" races, and Dems will keep 13-14.

    CA-25 is trending to the Republicans but still behind. AZ-6 has turned into a Republican lead. If this ends up being true, Republicans will hold 34 of the 37 "vulnerable Republican" seats, with Democrats picking up 3 (GA-7, NC-2, and NC-6).

    CA-8 looks relatively good. It appears Republicans will hold all 165 "safe" Republican races.

    This would mean that, at best for Republicans, Democrats will have 220 and Republicans will have 215. The most likely result will be 222-225 Dems.

  2. #22
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Republican leads which may slip away:

    CA-39
    Kim (R) leads Cisneros by 1500 votes with most remaining votes from areas of San Bernadino and LA Counties which have so far favored Cisneros. 88% reporting.

    CA-21
    Valadao (R) is up 2.8 points in this weird race where they did no counting yesterday, but most of the votes remaining are from Kern County, where Cox is far more popular.

    CA-48
    Steel (R) is only 2800 votes of incumbent Rouda, with 94% reporting.

    AZ-6
    Schewikert (R) has been dealing with an ethics scandal, which has made this formerly safe district close. Still, he has taken the lead after trailing, and will probably win.

    IA-2
    Meeks (R) has 196,773 votes to Hart's 196,487. Wow. Of the counties with votes to be counted, Hart has the edge, especially in Johnson County where she has a 40 point advantage, and is about the size of all of Meeks' remaining counties combined. However, it looks like most ballots counted have been absentee, which would favor Meeks for the remainder. Hmmm...




    Two close D-leading races:

    CA-25
    Garcia (R) trails Smith by 1800 votes, but is rapidly closing in. But time is running out.

    UT-4
    Owens (R) trails McAdams by 2600 votes, but with 29% of the votes uncounted, Owens could win if most of them aren't absentee. It appears that it might be more in-person votes remaining to be counted, but I'm not sure.

  3. #23
    this got buried in the biden thread, but think it's something that's worth seeing...

    Name:  spend.PNG
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    if my mafs is correct that's more than half of a billion dollars spent to keep republicans out of the senate...and if my count is right the dems went 2-6 in this...and a lot of those races weren't even close...

    add to this the $100M bloomberg spent trying to flip FL, OH, TX...

    looking at these numbers actually fucking hurts me that the dems can be so fucking bad at this...i fully understand that it's not about money, but with that being said if you have that much money to piss away you would fucking think you could hire the greatest minds in the country about all things elections 100x over to figure out how to beat the hell outta your opponent...

    on a side note, outside of incompetence it is stunning to me that $100+M was poured into SC, $90M into KY, and $70M into ME...i would at least think with spending like that in states that small you could just buy people's votes for cheaper...

     
    Comments
      
      MumblesBadly: Except for the “buying peoples votes” part, I agree.

  4. #24
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Yeah they basically lit $200m on fire attempting to beat Graham and McConnell, and not even coming close.

    They got arrogant. They thought this election would be a blue tidal wave. Instead, Biden just squeaked by, they lost several House seats, and they picked up 1-2 Senate seats (not enough for a majority).


  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    this got buried in the biden thread, but think it's something that's worth seeing...

    Name:  spend.PNG
Views: 200
Size:  54.4 KB

    if my mafs is correct that's more than half of a billion dollars spent to keep republicans out of the senate...and if my count is right the dems went 2-6 in this...and a lot of those races weren't even close...

    add to this the $100M bloomberg spent trying to flip FL, OH, TX...

    looking at these numbers actually fucking hurts me that the dems can be so fucking bad at this...i fully understand that it's not about money, but with that being said if you have that much money to piss away you would fucking think you could hire the greatest minds in the country about all things elections 100x over to figure out how to beat the hell outta your opponent...

    on a side note, outside of incompetence it is stunning to me that $100+M was poured into SC, $90M into KY, and $70M into ME...i would at least think with spending like that in states that small you could just buy people's votes for cheaper...
    They don't lack minds, or power, or money, they lack good ideas.

     
    Comments
      
      GambleBotsChafedPenis: Couldn't Agree More Rep

  6. #26
    Gold MrTickle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yeah they basically lit $200m on fire attempting to beat Graham and McConnell, and not even coming close.

    They got arrogant. They thought this election would be a blue tidal wave. Instead, Biden just squeaked by, they lost several House seats, and they picked up 1-2 Senate seats (not enough for a majority).

    Failure of the Lincoln Project who have pushed for mass funding of these moderate candidates. On the other hand, 26 of 30 of DSA candidates won.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Yeah they basically lit $200m on fire attempting to beat Graham and McConnell, and not even coming close.

    They got arrogant. They thought this election would be a blue tidal wave. Instead, Biden just squeaked by, they lost several House seats, and they picked up 1-2 Senate seats (not enough for a majority).

    We didn't do as well as we thought we could, that doesn't make it a fail. We got rid of Orange Cuck Fascist and that was the overwhelming number one goal.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by v12cl View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    this got buried in the biden thread, but think it's something that's worth seeing...

    Name:  spend.PNG
Views: 200
Size:  54.4 KB

    if my mafs is correct that's more than half of a billion dollars spent to keep republicans out of the senate...and if my count is right the dems went 2-6 in this...and a lot of those races weren't even close...

    add to this the $100M bloomberg spent trying to flip FL, OH, TX...

    looking at these numbers actually fucking hurts me that the dems can be so fucking bad at this...i fully understand that it's not about money, but with that being said if you have that much money to piss away you would fucking think you could hire the greatest minds in the country about all things elections 100x over to figure out how to beat the hell outta your opponent...

    on a side note, outside of incompetence it is stunning to me that $100+M was poured into SC, $90M into KY, and $70M into ME...i would at least think with spending like that in states that small you could just buy people's votes for cheaper...
    They don't lack minds, or power, or money, they lack good ideas.
    that's the thing that's maddening...you would think with all of that stuff you would be able to find better ways to spend the money to come up with better ideas...

  9. #29
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, I might as well let the cat out of the bag.

    The reason I was so obsessively tracking all of this is because I found a big value market on Predictit:

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-2020-election'

    On election night after the show, I spent many hours researching all of the house races, because I felt they were probably neglected by bettors there. Most people don't like focusing on the House betting because they are too low-profile, and if you don't live in the local area of each one, you know nothing going in.

    Anyway, I found that there was a huge under-value of the possibility that Republicans get close to a House victory but barely fall short (218-221). At one point I got shares for 2c. I also covered myself by buying 2c shares for Repubs winning the house (though I think that's unlikely), and also grabbed shares for 222-225.

    So if Democrats get 222-225 I win, if Dems get 218-221 I win big, if the Dems get fewer than 217 I also win pretty big, and if they get 226+, I lose. But my downside is MUCH smaller than my upside.

    This makes those two separate CA House raises (CA-21 and CA-25) that much more important to win.

    This morning people woke up to realize that there's value here, so the market shot up some, but it has regressed some. You might want to take a look at it.

  10. #30
    Thanks for letting us know early.
    he tries to fly under the radar with his gay big words - Big Bird

  11. #31
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Thanks for letting us know early.
    I couldn't. I wasn't maxed out yet, and if I posted this before, people here would have competed with me for the same shares.

  12. #32
    And Rick Sanchez gave you that inside info on the Polk Negreanu deal....

    Pretty selfish Druff.

    IDGAF since I donít bet on anything anymore....but throw your acolytes a bone brother.

  13. #33
    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Texter View Post
    And Rick Sanchez gave you that inside info on the Polk Negreanu deal....

    Pretty selfish Druff.

    IDGAF since I donít bet on anything anymore....but throw your acolytes a bone brother.
    Just because Rick Sanchez was a chump and gave away good private info doesnít mean that Druff should and not maximize the value of his own hard work. I mean, Druff is not a socialist or something. Amirite, Druff?
    _____________________________________________
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    We have a horrible choice between a super-shady, self-serving, lying criminal (Hillary Clinton) and an emotionally-unbalanced, shoot-from-the-hip authoritarian who lacks the intellectual curiosity to even want to learn the complexities that come with running a major nation like the US (Donald Trump).

  14. #34
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Republican leads which may slip away:

    CA-39
    Kim (R) leads Cisneros by 1500 votes with most remaining votes from areas of San Bernadino and LA Counties which have so far favored Cisneros. 88% reporting.

    CA-21
    Valadao (R) is up 2.8 points in this weird race where they did no counting yesterday, but most of the votes remaining are from Kern County, where Cox is far more popular.

    CA-48
    Steel (R) is only 2800 votes of incumbent Rouda, with 94% reporting.

    AZ-6
    Schewikert (R) has been dealing with an ethics scandal, which has made this formerly safe district close. Still, he has taken the lead after trailing, and will probably win.

    IA-2
    Meeks (R) has 196,773 votes to Hart's 196,487. Wow. Of the counties with votes to be counted, Hart has the edge, especially in Johnson County where she has a 40 point advantage, and is about the size of all of Meeks' remaining counties combined. However, it looks like most ballots counted have been absentee, which would favor Meeks for the remainder. Hmmm...




    Two close D-leading races:

    CA-25
    Garcia (R) trails Smith by 1800 votes, but is rapidly closing in. But time is running out.

    UT-4
    Owens (R) trails McAdams by 2600 votes, but with 29% of the votes uncounted, Owens could win if most of them aren't absentee. It appears that it might be more in-person votes remaining to be counted, but I'm not sure.

    Updates:

    PA-17 moved to the D side as Connor Lamb got a surge of votes via mail-ins.

    Garcia has moved slightly ahead of Smith in CA-25, and that one is looking more likely to go R now.

    Owens has moved ahead of McAdams in UT-4, making it now a little more likely Owens will win and flip the seat R.

    IA-2 is still at tossup.

    Valadao (R) is holding his lead in CA-21, but lots of votes left to be counted.

    Schweikert (R) is around 3 points ahead now in AZ-6, and it's looking very likely to hold R, despite the scandal.

    Steel (R) has widened her lead in CA-48, and they're 98% done counting votes. CA-48 looks like it will flip to R.

    CA-39 has no new info. That one remains very close.



    At the moment, Democrats seem to have locked up 220 seats.

    They may or may not get:
    CA-21 (underdog)
    CA-25 (underdog)
    IA-02 (slight underdog)
    CA-39 (no info)

    So it's looking like Republicans will pick up 11-15 seats, but still be a little short of a majority.

    If you have $ on Predictit, you probably want to fire D rep count bet I was talking about.

  15. #35

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Republican leads which may slip away:

    CA-39
    Kim (R) leads Cisneros by 1500 votes with most remaining votes from areas of San Bernadino and LA Counties which have so far favored Cisneros. 88% reporting.

    CA-21
    Valadao (R) is up 2.8 points in this weird race where they did no counting yesterday, but most of the votes remaining are from Kern County, where Cox is far more popular.

    CA-48
    Steel (R) is only 2800 votes of incumbent Rouda, with 94% reporting.

    AZ-6
    Schewikert (R) has been dealing with an ethics scandal, which has made this formerly safe district close. Still, he has taken the lead after trailing, and will probably win.

    IA-2
    Meeks (R) has 196,773 votes to Hart's 196,487. Wow. Of the counties with votes to be counted, Hart has the edge, especially in Johnson County where she has a 40 point advantage, and is about the size of all of Meeks' remaining counties combined. However, it looks like most ballots counted have been absentee, which would favor Meeks for the remainder. Hmmm...




    Two close D-leading races:

    CA-25
    Garcia (R) trails Smith by 1800 votes, but is rapidly closing in. But time is running out.

    UT-4
    Owens (R) trails McAdams by 2600 votes, but with 29% of the votes uncounted, Owens could win if most of them aren't absentee. It appears that it might be more in-person votes remaining to be counted, but I'm not sure.

    Updates:

    PA-17 moved to the D side as Connor Lamb got a surge of votes via mail-ins.

    Garcia has moved slightly ahead of Smith in CA-25, and that one is looking more likely to go R now.

    Owens has moved ahead of McAdams in UT-4, making it now a little more likely Owens will win and flip the seat R.

    IA-2 is still at tossup.

    Valadao (R) is holding his lead in CA-21, but lots of votes left to be counted.

    Schweikert (R) is around 3 points ahead now in AZ-6, and it's looking very likely to hold R, despite the scandal.

    Steel (R) has widened her lead in CA-48, and they're 98% done counting votes. CA-48 looks like it will flip to R.

    CA-39 has no new info. That one remains very close.



    At the moment, Democrats seem to have locked up 220 seats.

    They may or may not get:
    CA-21 (underdog)
    CA-25 (underdog)
    IA-02 (slight underdog)
    CA-39 (no info)

    So it's looking like Republicans will pick up 11-15 seats, but still be a little short of a majority.

    If you have $ on Predictit, you probably want to fire D rep count bet I was talking about.

    A) Is it possible for there to be no majority in the senate?

    B)Is it still possible for the Dems to still claim the majority at this point?

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by drufdajewgod View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post


    Updates:

    PA-17 moved to the D side as Connor Lamb got a surge of votes via mail-ins.

    Garcia has moved slightly ahead of Smith in CA-25, and that one is looking more likely to go R now.

    Owens has moved ahead of McAdams in UT-4, making it now a little more likely Owens will win and flip the seat R.

    IA-2 is still at tossup.

    Valadao (R) is holding his lead in CA-21, but lots of votes left to be counted.

    Schweikert (R) is around 3 points ahead now in AZ-6, and it's looking very likely to hold R, despite the scandal.

    Steel (R) has widened her lead in CA-48, and they're 98% done counting votes. CA-48 looks like it will flip to R.

    CA-39 has no new info. That one remains very close.



    At the moment, Democrats seem to have locked up 220 seats.

    They may or may not get:
    CA-21 (underdog)
    CA-25 (underdog)
    IA-02 (slight underdog)
    CA-39 (no info)

    So it's looking like Republicans will pick up 11-15 seats, but still be a little short of a majority.

    If you have $ on Predictit, you probably want to fire D rep count bet I was talking about.

    A) Is it possible for there to be no majority in the senate?

    B)Is it still possible for the Dems to still claim the majority at this point?
    In the event the senate is tied after run offs, the Vice President breaks ties. In the event youíre not American, this is House of Representatives heís talking about. Dems will still have majority

  18. #38
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Update:

    IL-14 is extremely close.

    IA-2 is suuuuuuuuuuuuuuper close, with a weird tallying anomaly switching the R up 282 to down 176. However, a small number of votes remain uncounted.

    CA-39 looks like it's going to win

    CA-21 is a weird race where the Republican is up 5k votes, but he lost in 2018 up 4k votes late in a near-identical scenario. I bailed out of it at 94c on PredictIt. I still think it will win.

    CA-25 is very close but I think it's going to squeak by R.

    UT-4 is razor thin but slightly favoring the D now.

    I need to hit at least 5 of these 6 in order to win my big payout.

  19. #39
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    For some reason, the world woke up this morning and suddenly realized that the Dems might only get 220-221 seats.

    Then they headed for Predictit and started buying up the 218-221 contract, and oddly, also the 214-217, 210-213, and 209 or fewer contracts. Some of America's best and brightest on that site, as previously noted by PLOL.

    Right now 218-221 is 35c, which is getting close to being overvalued. In fact, it may be overvalued already. I might be a nit and bail out of it soon and just take my guaranteed profit. But hanging on and winning over 20k on it would also be sweet. Tough one.

  20. #40
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    IL-14 has flipped back blue, but it's not over.

    Oberweis (R), up by 558, is now down by 584. Underwood (D), the incumbent, is back ahead, after previously being up 4k votes and watching that slip away.

    https://www.dailyherald.com/news/202...pdates-results

    However, it's far from over.

    Look at this part:

    The Lake County clerk's office plans updates on Tuesday and Nov. 17, and the McHenry County clerk is expected to release its final totals Nov. 18. Kendall and Will counties are waiting until Nov. 17. DeKalb is waiting until Nov. 18.
    Lake County's portion in this district is heavily Republican and might have as many as 40k votes still to be reported (!!)

    The other counties don't seem to have that many votes left to report, but there will be some.

    So we shall see what happens Tuesday.

    Underwood has been leading 55-45% in absentee ballots, though. Oberweis has so far killed it in Lake County (up by 30 points), so if he wins the remaining votes by even a small margin, he's probably got this. This is a bit confusing because Underwood won Lake County by 6 in 2018. However, Oberweis is a stronger candidate than the opponent Underwood faced two years ago.

    If Oberweis takes a decent lead on Tuesday when Lake County's votes are released, you'd be smart to load up on 218-221 on Predictit, as those odds will go way up. There is no market for IL-14 itself on Predictit, sadly. 218-221 is way down -- back to 5c, making me sorry I didn't dump a lot of mine at 35c and rebuy.

    If you can buy at 5c, you should. There's still a very decent chance Dems get 221 seats -- if both CA seats hold R, if Oberweis wins Lake County, and if either UT-4 or IA-2 goes R.

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