Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
Before I get off this thing and dream about my two CA Congressional races coming in, I want to take a look at the Senate.
Coming into the election, Republicans had 53 seats, and Democrats had 45, but also two independents (King and Sanders) who vote with them.
There were 35 Senate races, but 10 were safe Democratic and 11 were safe Republican, and those appear to have all held.
Republicans flipped one in Alabama.
Democrats flipped two -- Arizona and Colorado.
Of the remaining 11, Republicans seem to have probably won in AK, the Perdue race in GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, SC, and TX.
That leaves three:
Michigan: John James (R) leading, likely to lose for the same reason Trump is
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) leading, and very likely to stay ahead
Georgia: Runoff election between Warnock (D) and Loeffler (R) to be scheduled
Best case for Republicans: They win all 3, keeping 53 seats as they had before.
Best case for Democrats: They win all 3, for a net gain of 4 seats. This would give them a 49-49 tie, but Sanders/King would make it 51-49 D.
Most likely case: Tillis wins, James loses, and the GA runoff is hard to predict. But either way, Republicans hold onto a slim lead with 51 or 52.
Pretty huge, actually, given Biden's high likelihood to win right now.
Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.
It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.
So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.
Even if it isn’t, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
Here's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/
209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.
24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.
37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).
165 safe Republican seem to have all held.
If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.
However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.
There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Thanks Druff
I count it 218/217 currently as well
With 5 seats that Democrats are currently ahead in that Republican could still flip and 3 seats that Republicans are in that could flip back to Democrat.
Seems a bit more likely Democrats hold but my guess is that Pelosi might loser her Speaker role.
LoL if it’s 2 R Chambers and Biden starts going all Republican which he more or less is if you look at his voting record minus a couple key issues.
Here are the very close House seats:
Democratic districts
============
CA-39 R +0.4 84%
IL-14 R +0.6 77%
NY-3 R +1.5 71%
PA-6 R +0.4 73%
Vulnerable districts
============
CA-48 R +0.6 92%
IA-3 D +1.4 95%
AZ-6 D +0.6 80%
CA-25 D +1.0 82%
TX-24 R +1.4 93%
Republican Districts
============
CA-8 R +1.4 55%
That's 10 races. 7 Republican leaning, 3 Democrat leaning at the moment.
If it stays as-is, then it's 218-217 Republican.
However, good chance Republicans lose CA-39, IL-14, and PA-6. Decent chance Democrats lose CA-25 and AZ-6.
So I agree with you. Looks 218-217 either way to me.
While I’m glad Biden has (basically) won, the senate staying republican means that we’ll probably get four years of not much happening at all. And who doesn’t love status quo
Easy money. I was talking to a friend of mine, and he GUARATEED Susan Collins was going to lose Maine. I was like WTF, keep in mind he never went to Maine in his life. I was in Maine two years ago and Collins actually came into a diner we were at. I did not approach her obviously, but she was a rock star and everyone was doting on her. This whole fantasia syndrome where people were going to vote against her due to Brett Kavanaugh was ridiculous.
These House races are so tilting.
CA-21 and CA-25 just aren't updating.
CA-21 has 71% precincts reporting (!!), and that's what they've had since last night.
CA-25 has updated once today, from 81% to 86% reporting, and that's it. They also froze.
What are they doing in these places? Hello Bakersfield! Hello Newhall! Get your shit together!
I've got bets on this stuff and am tired of refreshing and getting no answers.
Damn yours is close. What was the odds?
They were just saying on CNN that Georgia works the same way. So with Perdue currently at 50.2%, it's pretty much a lock that we'll have two runoffs there.
Seeing how Georgia is about to flip blue in the presidential race, there's surely a decent chance at taking both seats.
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