Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
Republican leads which may slip away:
CA-39
Kim (R) leads Cisneros by 1500 votes with most remaining votes from areas of San Bernadino and LA Counties which have so far favored Cisneros. 88% reporting.
CA-21
Valadao (R) is up 2.8 points in this weird race where they did no counting yesterday, but most of the votes remaining are from Kern County, where Cox is far more popular.
CA-48
Steel (R) is only 2800 votes of incumbent Rouda, with 94% reporting.
AZ-6
Schewikert (R) has been dealing with an ethics scandal, which has made this formerly safe district close. Still, he has taken the lead after trailing, and will probably win.
IA-2
Meeks (R) has 196,773 votes to Hart's 196,487. Wow. Of the counties with votes to be counted, Hart has the edge, especially in Johnson County where she has a 40 point advantage, and is about the size of all of Meeks' remaining counties combined. However, it looks like most ballots counted have been absentee, which would favor Meeks for the remainder. Hmmm...
Two close D-leading races:
CA-25
Garcia (R) trails Smith by 1800 votes, but is rapidly closing in. But time is running out.
UT-4
Owens (R) trails McAdams by 2600 votes, but with 29% of the votes uncounted, Owens could win if most of them aren't absentee. It appears that it might be more in-person votes remaining to be counted, but I'm not sure.
Updates:
PA-17 moved to the D side as Connor Lamb got a surge of votes via mail-ins.
Garcia has moved slightly ahead of Smith in CA-25, and that one is looking more likely to go R now.
Owens has moved ahead of McAdams in UT-4, making it now a little more likely Owens will win and flip the seat R.
IA-2 is still at tossup.
Valadao (R) is holding his lead in CA-21, but lots of votes left to be counted.
Schweikert (R) is around 3 points ahead now in AZ-6, and it's looking very likely to hold R, despite the scandal.
Steel (R) has widened her lead in CA-48, and they're 98% done counting votes. CA-48 looks like it will flip to R.
CA-39 has no new info. That one remains very close.
At the moment, Democrats seem to have locked up 220 seats.
They may or may not get:
CA-21 (underdog)
CA-25 (underdog)
IA-02 (slight underdog)
CA-39 (no info)
So it's looking like Republicans will pick up 11-15 seats, but still be a little short of a majority.
If you have $ on Predictit, you probably want to fire D rep count bet I was talking about.