House/Senate Races 2020

[Dan Druff]

Here are the very close House seats:

Democratic districts
============
CA-39 R +0.4 84%
IL-14 R +0.6 77%
NY-3 R +1.5 71%
PA-6 R +0.4 73%

Vulnerable districts
============
CA-48 R +0.6 92%
IA-3 D +1.4 95%
AZ-6 D +0.6 80%
CA-25 D +1.0 82%
TX-24 R +1.4 93%

Republican Districts
============
CA-8 R +1.4 55%

That's 10 races. 7 Republican leaning, 3 Democrat leaning at the moment.

If it stays as-is, then it's 218-217 Republican.

However, good chance Republicans lose CA-39, IL-14, and PA-6. Decent chance Democrats lose CA-25 and AZ-6.

So I agree with you. Looks 218-217 either way to me.

UPDATE

Democrats are taking PA-6 and one other I didn't expect in Democratic districts. A few others are close. If everything holds as-is, Democrats will keep 204 of the 209 "safe" Democratic races.

IA-3 is likely to stay D, but Dems are going to hold 3 others where Republicans were leading when I analyzed this last night. IA-2 is a virtual tie right now. If it stays this way, Republicans will pick up 10-11 seats from "vulnerable Democrat" races, and Dems will keep 13-14.

CA-25 is trending to the Republicans but still behind. AZ-6 has turned into a Republican lead. If this ends up being true, Republicans will hold 34 of the 37 "vulnerable Republican" seats, with Democrats picking up 3 (GA-7, NC-2, and NC-6).

CA-8 looks relatively good. It appears Republicans will hold all 165 "safe" Republican races.

This would mean that, at best for Republicans, Democrats will have 220 and Republicans will have 215. The most likely result will be 222-225 Dems.