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Thread: House/Senate Races 2020

  1. #61
    Platinum duped_samaritan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    You're forgetting that Trump is not at the top of the ticket to motivate Republican voters to the polls. Without Trump on the ticket the Republicans wouldn't have done as well in the House and Senate because fewer of his cultists would have voted.
    I feel like Trump not being on the ticket will hurt the Democrats much more than Republicans. A state like Georgia especially.

  2. #62
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by duped_samaritan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    You're forgetting that Trump is not at the top of the ticket to motivate Republican voters to the polls. Without Trump on the ticket the Republicans wouldn't have done as well in the House and Senate because fewer of his cultists would have voted.
    I feel like Trump not being on the ticket will hurt the Democrats much more than Republicans. A state like Georgia especially.
    That could be. The message needs to get to Democratic voters in GA that the Senate hangs in the balance.
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  3. #63
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    218-221 D House Seats on Predicit is trading at 38c-39c right now, though at low volume.

    I have an assload of shares there. I've decided to be risk-averse and I'm trying to sell some of it. Sadly the volume is very low, so very little has moved.

    Too many ways this one can go bad.

    Basically, the Dems have 220 locked up. This includes IL-14, which is now considered a D win.

    The remaining contested seats:

    NJ-7 (uncalled for the D, lead rapidly vanishing, but D probably still has an edge)
    UT-4 (looking more likely to go R)
    IA-2 (47-vote difference, but vote-counting supposedly done. Likely to finish a narrow R victory)
    CA-25 (tossup -- tiny margin, unpredictable finish)
    CA-21 (R leads by 2400, but is rapidly losing ground. Tough to predict. Also a tossup)
    NY-3 (very slow at counting votes in this district, R leads by 4200 but many believe it will go blue by the end)

    For the 218-221 bet to win, Republicans need to take 5 of these 6 minimum. I could easily see them losing two here, especially with CA-25, CA-21, NY-3, and NJ-7 all very hard to predict.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    218-221 D House Seats on Predicit is trading at 38c-39c right now, though at low volume.

    I have an assload of shares there. I've decided to be risk-averse and I'm trying to sell some of it. Sadly the volume is very low, so very little has moved.

    Too many ways this one can go bad.

    Basically, the Dems have 220 locked up. This includes IL-14, which is now considered a D win.

    The remaining contested seats:

    NJ-7 (uncalled for the D, lead rapidly vanishing, but D probably still has an edge)
    UT-4 (looking more likely to go R)
    IA-2 (47-vote difference, but vote-counting supposedly done. Likely to finish a narrow R victory)
    CA-25 (tossup -- tiny margin, unpredictable finish)
    CA-21 (R leads by 2400, but is rapidly losing ground. Tough to predict. Also a tossup)
    NY-3 (very slow at counting votes in this district, R leads by 4200 but many believe it will go blue by the end)

    For the 218-221 bet to win, Republicans need to take 5 of these 6 minimum. I could easily see them losing two here, especially with CA-25, CA-21, NY-3, and NJ-7 all very hard to predict.
    seems like theres value in the 222-225 bet at around 63 then?

  5. #65
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    There's value in 63c for 222-225, yes. However, it's better to just take the Trump-related bets for 10+ cents guaranteed profit if they're still floating around out there.

    I made my first real Predictit mistake in this general election. I stupidly fell asleep with a 2100 share request for 10c for REPUBLICAN NO for CA-21. At the time, that was a good price for me. However, I never leave these offers open while sleeping because things can abruptly change and fuck me. (This is a good reason to trade on Predictit at night, because things are relatively stable news-wise.)

    Sure enough, some negative news came in for the D, and the price plummeted. Some lucky asshole got to bail out at 10c for something worth about 3c-4c, and I got fucked. Currently it's at 3c as even more bad news for the D came. I'm actually just holding it, in case things turn back. That race is weird.

    Anyway, here's the update for today:

    CA-25 Toss-up

    IA-2 No change during current ongoing hand recounts. Still likely R, but 47 vote margin is very precarious to hold.

    UT-4 R now has lead of over 2,000 votes, and not many left to count. Probably close to over.

    NY-3 is getting much tighter, with the D only 918 votes behind. Many are projecting it will end up blue, given the makeup of the votes left to count.

    CA-21 As mentioned above, this one is nearly over, with the R winning (goodbye $210 I spent while sleeping!)

    NJ-7 Despite the huge comeback of the R down 28,000 votes to only down 4300 votes, he's running out of remaining votes to be counted, and will probably lose.

    If NY-3 flips and NJ-7 doesn't come back, it's over for the 218-221 bet. CA-25 is also a factor, though moot if NY-3/NJ-7 both end up blue.

    226-229 would win if all 6 end up blue, but that is highly unlikely at this point. Maybe worth a flyer at 1c, but not much more than that, given the unlikelihood of IA-2/UT-4/CA-21 ending up all blue.

  6. #66
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Actually, don't even waste your money on 1c at 226-229. The chance of those three highly-likely R seats (CA-21, UT-4, and IA-2) all going blue is about zero point zero. And then you'd have to win the other 3. Probably longer than 1000-to-1 odds.

  7. #67
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Now NY-22 is back in play.

    Claudia Tenney (R) was leading Anthony Brindisi (D) by 28,000 votes after election day.

    However, the counting of absentees has more than halved that lead, and now it's a 13,000 difference, with possibly 35k votes left to count.

    NY is a fucking mess.

    https://wbng.com/2020/11/13/tenneys-...to-be-counted/

    This has sent prices for 218-221 plummeting to the single digits. So if you want in on that market, here's your chance.

    I wish people jumped at buying what I had up there this morning. I barely sold anything. Guess I should've priced it a bit lower, but I don't think the volume was there.

  8. #68
    I expect the Democrats to win both Senate races in Georgia on January 5th 2020.

    Which will make a 50 to 50 tie in the Senate.

    Vice President Kamala Harris will break that tie.

    Democrats will control the White House, House of Representatives and the Senate.

    Suck on that fake Republican conservatives.



     
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  9. #69
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    UPDATES:

    UT-4 has been called for the Republicans.

    NJ-7 seems to have fallen apart for the Republican, and has been called again for the Dems.

    IA-2 is still doing recounts, with the R holding a razor-thin lead of 47 votes.

    CA-25 has seen Garcia (R) expand the lead by over 400 votes, but it's still very close. Favors R but could still flip back.

    CA-21 strongly favors R but isn't over yet, with a bunch of votes left to count.

    NY-3 seems like it's over, with the D winning.

    NY-22 looks like the R is going to hold the lead, though still tons of votes to count. Probably over, though.


    Sadly, NJ-7 going D shuts me out of winning the 218-221 bet. I'll pretty much cash on my hedge (222-225) and nothing else. Disappointing. 222 looks like the most likely number, with 221 being near-impossible. 223-224 is also possible. 225+ is unlikely.

  10. #70
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    NY-22 is actually closer than I thought.

    https://www.syracuse.com/politics/20...ouse-race.html

    Cliffs:

    Tenney (R) was ahead 28k votes on election day, but has gotten killed in the mail-ins. Brindisi (D) has shaved it down to a 3500 vote deficit.

    Brindisi has won 72% of the 50k absentee votes (!!) counted thus far, and there's close to 9100 remaining to count. However, more than half of those are from Chenango County, where Tenney was up 26 points in election day votes counted. Chenango County has elected Democrats in state/local elections in the past 14 years, though not by wide margins.

    Brindisi needs to win 70% of the remaining uncounted ballots to win.

  11. #71
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Also, I am not a fan of Kelly Loeffler. I feel she's corrupt, and I wish the GOP had a better candidate.

    However, Raphael Warnock is awful, has always loved Fidel Castro, and can't say anything bad about the guy to this day. Wow.

     
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  12. #72
    I think she's gonna lose just because she is a woman.

    In Georgia, if you're black or a woman, some white guy probably owns you.


  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by TheXFactor View Post
    I think she's gonna lose just because she is a woman.

    In Georgia, if you're black or a woman, some white guy probably owns you.
    Her opponent is a black man.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by TheXFactor View Post
    I think she's gonna lose just because she is a woman.

    In Georgia, if you're black or a woman, some white guy probably owns you.
    Her opponent is a black man.
    Who has an old sermon circulating preaching “you can’t serve God and the military.”

    I mean I read the whole context and it was kind of a you can’t serve two masters spiel, but really bad in a sound bite in GA

  15. #75
    Is this the best Republicans have to offer?


  16. #76
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    NJ-7 goes D

    IA-2 still likely R but in its second recount: https://www.press-citizen.com/story/...ce/3770666001/

    CA-25 is pretty likely R

    CA-21 is pretty likely R

    NY-22 is pretty likely R

    IA-2, CA-25, NY-22 will probably be GOP winners by razor thin margins. Brutal beat for the Dems.

    222-213 is the likely final House count. GOP needs to flip just 5 seats in the midterms to take back the House.

     
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  17. #77
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Jersey always Votes for the Democrat, especially during Presidential elections. Jersey is super populated, couple big cities there, kinda NYC really. So Jersey is a very Blue State, especially during Presidential election times.

    Sometimes a Republican Governor can win in NJ as Christie did, but Presidential elections Jersey is a very Blue State....

    I dont think I truly realized all of that actually, till I was a bit older. Now have lived in the opposite now, 10 years. Jersey and Florida and def opposites lol. State Wise in ways it's funny to me some of it. But across the board I get it now.

    If I had to say which I'd prefer, or what State I think is better, wealthier etc. Its New Jersey hands down, you dont come to Florida to make your millions lol. Usually you already have them lol, and are moving to FL to Preserve them millions obviously ;-)..
    Last edited by garrett; 11-22-2020 at 04:04 AM.

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