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Thread: House/Senate Races 2020

  1. #1
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    House/Senate Races 2020

    Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?

     
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      MumblesBadly: Democrats underperformed bigly

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Before I get off this thing and dream about my two CA Congressional races coming in, I want to take a look at the Senate.

    Coming into the election, Republicans had 53 seats, and Democrats had 45, but also two independents (King and Sanders) who vote with them.

    There were 35 Senate races, but 10 were safe Democratic and 11 were safe Republican, and those appear to have all held.

    Republicans flipped one in Alabama.

    Democrats flipped two -- Arizona and Colorado.

    Of the remaining 11, Republicans seem to have probably won in AK, the Perdue race in GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, SC, and TX.

    That leaves three:

    Michigan: John James (R) leading, likely to lose for the same reason Trump is
    North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) leading, and very likely to stay ahead
    Georgia: Runoff election between Warnock (D) and Loeffler (R) to be scheduled

    Best case for Republicans: They win all 3, keeping 53 seats as they had before.

    Best case for Democrats: They win all 3, for a net gain of 4 seats. This would give them a 49-49 tie, but Sanders/King would make it 51-49 D.

    Most likely case: Tillis wins, James loses, and the GA runoff is hard to predict. But either way, Republicans hold onto a slim lead with 51 or 52.



    Pretty huge, actually, given Biden's high likelihood to win right now.

  3. #3
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.

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    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
    I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

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    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
    Not happening.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

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    Platinum duped_samaritan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
    Most of the media called the House for the Dems before midnight.

    I haven't been paying attention to it at all, but are you sure about that?

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
    Here's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/

    209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.

    24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.

    37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).

    165 safe Republican seem to have all held.

    If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.

    However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.

    There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
    I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.
    I don't see where you're getting that. Where is the other Senator going to come from? I don't see Tillis losing.

  9. #9
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.
    I don't see where you're getting that. Where is the other Senator going to come from? I don't see Tillis losing.
    Either Collins or the other GA. They only need 50 with a Democratic VP.

    A lot of Maine is strangely uncounted and it has ranked choice voting so if nobody gets 50% they start counting second choices.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.

    It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.

    So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.

    Even if it isnít, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
    Here's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/

    209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.

    24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.

    37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).

    165 safe Republican seem to have all held.

    If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.

    However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.

    There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.
    Thanks Druff

    I count it 218/217 currently as well

    With 5 seats that Democrats are currently ahead in that Republican could still flip and 3 seats that Republicans are in that could flip back to Democrat.

    Seems a bit more likely Democrats hold but my guess is that Pelosi might loser her Speaker role.

    LoL if itís 2 R Chambers and Biden starts going all Republican which he more or less is if you look at his voting record minus a couple key issues.

  11. #11
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here are the very close House seats:

    Democratic districts
    ============
    CA-39 R +0.4 84%
    IL-14 R +0.6 77%
    NY-3 R +1.5 71%
    PA-6 R +0.4 73%

    Vulnerable districts
    ============
    CA-48 R +0.6 92%
    IA-3 D +1.4 95%
    AZ-6 D +0.6 80%
    CA-25 D +1.0 82%
    TX-24 R +1.4 93%

    Republican Districts
    ============
    CA-8 R +1.4 55%

    That's 10 races. 7 Republican leaning, 3 Democrat leaning at the moment.

    If it stays as-is, then it's 218-217 Republican.

    However, good chance Republicans lose CA-39, IL-14, and PA-6. Decent chance Democrats lose CA-25 and AZ-6.

    So I agree with you. Looks 218-217 either way to me.

  12. #12
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post

    I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.

    I've not paid enough attention to whether runoffs are even possible in Ga (though based on your post they must be), but if so, they will tilt heavily Republican and yes, I'm willing to bet 4-5 figures on it right now.
    Walter is wrong.

    GOP has the Senate. It's not likely we will see 2 Georgia runoffs, and even if there are, Republicans very likely carry at least one of them, and perhaps both.

  13. #13
    Gold MrTickle's Avatar
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    While Iím glad Biden has (basically) won, the senate staying republican means that weíll probably get four years of not much happening at all. And who doesnít love status quo

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by MrTickle View Post
    While Iím glad Biden has (basically) won, the senate staying republican means that weíll probably get four years of not much happening at all. And who doesnít love status quo

    This was in large part the intended result from the Founders; forcing compromise. We just live in a much different world than they did and are playing with stakes they couldn't have comprehended.
    he tries to fly under the radar with his gay big words - Big Bird

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    SunWager just now:

    Nov 4th
    9:00 AM
    9:00a
    TRUMP - PRESIDENT
    BIDEN - PRESIDENT
    UPDATE LINES
    CONTINUE
    Game - 2020 Presidential Election
    Person to win the 2020 Presidential Election
    Trump - President
    +325
    Biden - President
    -500
    you and i have a little sweat



    Georgia (GA)
    11/4/20
    11:01 PM
    Georgia (GA)
    Republican Candidate -150
    Democratic Candidate +115
    Ha, it will end up R. But it is good for the Lullz.

    I was just looking back at my bets on SunWager -- is it me, or was i stealing candy from a baby here?

    Republicans - Senate (+148)

    I took that bet only a week or two ago.

    Seemed too easy in my mind.

     
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      Salty_Aus: Don't believe you. You rarely show screenshots of your winning wagers. Just cut and pasted text and its usually after an even is over.
      
      splitthis: Offset
    he tries to fly under the radar with his gay big words - Big Bird

  16. #16
    Plumber tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    you and i have a little sweat



    Georgia (GA)
    11/4/20
    11:01 PM
    Georgia (GA)
    Republican Candidate -150
    Democratic Candidate +115
    Ha, it will end up R. But it is good for the Lullz.

    I was just looking back at my bets on SunWager -- is it me, or was i stealing candy from a baby here?

    Republicans - Senate (+148)

    I took that bet only a week or two ago.

    Seemed too easy in my mind.
    Easy money. I was talking to a friend of mine, and he GUARATEED Susan Collins was going to lose Maine. I was like WTF, keep in mind he never went to Maine in his life. I was in Maine two years ago and Collins actually came into a diner we were at. I did not approach her obviously, but she was a rock star and everyone was doting on her. This whole fantasia syndrome where people were going to vote against her due to Brett Kavanaugh was ridiculous.
    Walter, the now relentless troll:

    From 2012: Having partisans run elections is insane. Having hundreds of different rules and procedures is insane

  17. #17
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    you and i have a little sweat



    Georgia (GA)
    11/4/20
    11:01 PM
    Georgia (GA)
    Republican Candidate -150
    Democratic Candidate +115
    Ha, it will end up R. But it is good for the Lullz.

    I was just looking back at my bets on SunWager -- is it me, or was i stealing candy from a baby here?

    Republicans - Senate (+148)

    I took that bet only a week or two ago.

    Seemed too easy in my mind.
    Down to -125...

    nc on the senate

  18. #18
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    These House races are so tilting.

    CA-21 and CA-25 just aren't updating.

    CA-21 has 71% precincts reporting (!!), and that's what they've had since last night.

    CA-25 has updated once today, from 81% to 86% reporting, and that's it. They also froze.

    What are they doing in these places? Hello Bakersfield! Hello Newhall! Get your shit together!

    I've got bets on this stuff and am tired of refreshing and getting no answers.


  19. #19
    Damn yours is close. What was the odds?

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    A lot of Maine is strangely uncounted and it has ranked choice voting so if nobody gets 50% they start counting second choices.
    They were just saying on CNN that Georgia works the same way. So with Perdue currently at 50.2%, it's pretty much a lock that we'll have two runoffs there.

    Seeing how Georgia is about to flip blue in the presidential race, there's surely a decent chance at taking both seats.

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