Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
Anyone have a 3 sentence or less summary of the senate?
Before I get off this thing and dream about my two CA Congressional races coming in, I want to take a look at the Senate.
Coming into the election, Republicans had 53 seats, and Democrats had 45, but also two independents (King and Sanders) who vote with them.
There were 35 Senate races, but 10 were safe Democratic and 11 were safe Republican, and those appear to have all held.
Republicans flipped one in Alabama.
Democrats flipped two -- Arizona and Colorado.
Of the remaining 11, Republicans seem to have probably won in AK, the Perdue race in GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, SC, and TX.
That leaves three:
Michigan: John James (R) leading, likely to lose for the same reason Trump is
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) leading, and very likely to stay ahead
Georgia: Runoff election between Warnock (D) and Loeffler (R) to be scheduled
Best case for Republicans: They win all 3, keeping 53 seats as they had before.
Best case for Democrats: They win all 3, for a net gain of 4 seats. This would give them a 49-49 tie, but Sanders/King would make it 51-49 D.
Most likely case: Tillis wins, James loses, and the GA runoff is hard to predict. But either way, Republicans hold onto a slim lead with 51 or 52.
Pretty huge, actually, given Biden's high likelihood to win right now.
Just a quick sidebar conversation because everyone has been wrapped up in the Presidential race.
It is possible now that Democrats lose the House.
So could be Biden, with two Republican chambers.
Even if it isn’t, it will be like 218/217 Democrats.
Not happening.Originally Posted by abrown83
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Most of the media called the House for the Dems before midnight.
I haven't been paying attention to it at all, but are you sure about that?
Here's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/
209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.
24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.
37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).
165 safe Republican seem to have all held.
If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.
However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.
There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.
Thanks DruffHere's a good picture of the US House race: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elect...ts/house-2020/
209 were rated "safe Democrat", yet 7 are in play.
24 were rated "Vulnerable Democrat", and 14 of those have the Republican leading.
37 were rated "Vulnerable Republican", and 5 of those have Democrats leading (including CA-25, which I think will stay R when it's all counted).
165 safe Republican seem to have all held.
If we just go by who is leading and give it to them (which isn't going to happen), Dems have 217 and Repubs have 218, as abrown said.
However, it's far more complicated than that, because both sides will probably turn some of these around by the time it's all over. But yeah, the Dems oddly underperformed with the House.
There's a very good chance the Republicans have both the House and Senate in January 2023. Republicans will squeak by with the Senate here, in all likelihood, and have an outside shot at the House.
I count it 218/217 currently as well
With 5 seats that Democrats are currently ahead in that Republican could still flip and 3 seats that Republicans are in that could flip back to Democrat.
Seems a bit more likely Democrats hold but my guess is that Pelosi might loser her Speaker role.
LoL if it’s 2 R Chambers and Biden starts going all Republican which he more or less is if you look at his voting record minus a couple key issues.
Here are the very close House seats:
Democratic districts
============
CA-39 R +0.4 84%
IL-14 R +0.6 77%
NY-3 R +1.5 71%
PA-6 R +0.4 73%
Vulnerable districts
============
CA-48 R +0.6 92%
IA-3 D +1.4 95%
AZ-6 D +0.6 80%
CA-25 D +1.0 82%
TX-24 R +1.4 93%
Republican Districts
============
CA-8 R +1.4 55%
That's 10 races. 7 Republican leaning, 3 Democrat leaning at the moment.
If it stays as-is, then it's 218-217 Republican.
However, good chance Republicans lose CA-39, IL-14, and PA-6. Decent chance Democrats lose CA-25 and AZ-6.
So I agree with you. Looks 218-217 either way to me.
UPDATE
Democrats are taking PA-6 and one other I didn't expect in Democratic districts. A few others are close. If everything holds as-is, Democrats will keep 204 of the 209 "safe" Democratic races.
IA-3 is likely to stay D, but Dems are going to hold 3 others where Republicans were leading when I analyzed this last night. IA-2 is a virtual tie right now. If it stays this way, Republicans will pick up 10-11 seats from "vulnerable Democrat" races, and Dems will keep 13-14.
CA-25 is trending to the Republicans but still behind. AZ-6 has turned into a Republican lead. If this ends up being true, Republicans will hold 34 of the 37 "vulnerable Republican" seats, with Democrats picking up 3 (GA-7, NC-2, and NC-6).
CA-8 looks relatively good. It appears Republicans will hold all 165 "safe" Republican races.
This would mean that, at best for Republicans, Democrats will have 220 and Republicans will have 215. The most likely result will be 222-225 Dems.
What the Fuck has happened to you?
Where do you get your news?
Let me guess, from the same people that told you Seth Rich was a thing & to take hydroxychloroquine.
How many times do you need to be lied to, before you stop believing someone?
That is a question for all Trump losers, but no one has lost more respect IMO, in the Trump ERA, on PFA, than this guy.
Are you in QAnon, now or what?
San Francisco crowned the ‘world’s best’ city to live: survey
https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/...o-live-survey/
What the Fuck has happened to you?
Where do you get your news?
Let me guess, from the same people that told you Seth Rich was a thing & to take hydroxychloroquine.
How many times do you need to be lied to, before you stop believing someone?
That is a question for all Trump losers, but no one has lost more respect IMO, in the Trump ERA, on PFA, than this guy.
Are you in QAnon, now or what?
Jimmy, abrown83 just took a quick look at the House results, which at the time suggested that 218-217 Republicans was possible. I agreed that while not likely, it was possible, and that 217 for Republicans was most likely their best-case ceiling.What the Fuck has happened to you?
Where do you get your news?
Let me guess, from the same people that told you Seth Rich was a thing & to take hydroxychloroquine.
How many times do you need to be lied to, before you stop believing someone?
That is a question for all Trump losers, but no one has lost more respect IMO, in the Trump ERA, on PFA, than this guy.
Are you in QAnon, now or what?
Now that it's played out some and some races flipped with the late counting, the final tally should end up somewhere between 225-210 and 220-215. So yes, Democrats will hold the House, but this has been an incredibly disappointing election for the Dems aside from Biden winning.
Note that three "safe D" districts are flipping!!
It's often hard to figure out where some of these races are going, especially with late vote counting, because you need to understand the voter makeup (and counting procedures) in each of these districts, in order to know who will come back and who won't. I've been following this closely, and even I'll admit I'm guessing somewhat, especially with the non-California races. (At least in California, I understand the areas and the voters well.)
In short, nothing abrown83 said at the time was unreasonable, and there's a possibility he will only be 3 seats off with his prediction.
is this a thing or is there too much to go on in GA (think that's the one that still in question)...
D House, R Senate is very likely.
I don't see the Dems winning both seats there, which is what they'd need in order to get the Senate.
Obviously the top one is most likely, but it’s probably more profitable to buy no or yes on the individual races as they approach as opposed to locking up your money until Jan 5th.is this a thing or is there too much to go on in GA (think that's the one that still in question)...
I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
I don't see where you're getting that. Where is the other Senator going to come from? I don't see Tillis losing.I'll give you one with 2 sentences to spare: It will come down to the GA runoffs.
Either Collins or the other GA. They only need 50 with a Democratic VP.I don't see where you're getting that. Where is the other Senator going to come from? I don't see Tillis losing.
A lot of Maine is strangely uncounted and it has ranked choice voting so if nobody gets 50% they start counting second choices.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
They were just saying on CNN that Georgia works the same way. So with Perdue currently at 50.2%, it's pretty much a lock that we'll have two runoffs there.
Seeing how Georgia is about to flip blue in the presidential race, there's surely a decent chance at taking both seats.
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