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Thread: *** OFFICIAL DANIEL NEGERANU / DOUG POLK HEADS UP (and sidebetting) THREAD ***

  1. #1
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    *** OFFICIAL DANIEL NEGERANU / DOUG POLK HEADS UP (and sidebetting) THREAD ***

    The Daniel Negreanu & Doug Polk match is coming up on November 4.

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1321606464981536768

    Anyway, I'm interested in the sidebetting situation. The going-rate odds have ranged between Negreanu +500 and Negreanu +400.

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1321556563648081920


    I have thought about it and decided I would like to bet on Daniel. I think he is good enough to be better than a big dog of that level.

    Anyone interested in betting the other side?

    I am offering anyone -425/+425 (you bet 425 to win 100 on Polk). $100 minimum, maximum to be determined.

    I already offered this on Twitter and have one possible taker (not a PFA person).

    Please do NOT use this thread to undercut my line. You can do that on your own site or social media account.

    Feel free to use this thread to discuss the match itself, or give commentary as it goes on.

  2. #2
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Interesting that Negreanu, who is about 2-3 years younger than me, looks like he's taken my approach regarding COVID.

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1321507033904865280


    A million fucking bucks deposited to WSOP.com. Amazing.

    Anyway, if Daniel really is doing roids like some suspect, I don't blame him for hiding from this virus. Of course, given that I'm hiding and not doing roids, I don't blame him either way.

  3. #3
    Nova Scotia's REAL #1 Webcam DJ sonatine's Avatar
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    when is new high stakes poker eps airing because they are out of their fucking minds if they think im spending $40 for 90 days access just so i can watch these two maul each other financially.

     
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      shoeshine box: ??$40$?? GTFOH ...two con artists playing the ppl!.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs


  4. #4
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Dumb. Ruins a lot of the entertainment value here.

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1322018480707661827

  5. #5

    Exclamation

    IMO...and I dealt many hands to both.

    These odds they offer, you are forced to bet Negs or no bet.

    IMO> Polk -180/ Negs +160...

    If you got 4, 5 -1. even 2 or 3-1. you doing Okay.
    Polk will prob win as the LA dodgers did ,but I got to take Atl. and TB at +175.

    Polk being backed by BIG FLA. $$$$$ ala J.Mercier, IMO.

    Negs using his own $$ I bet you.or sold a lotta piece$..

    Im so crazy & my mind is slightly? warped to say, "I think they say"> "Negs/Doug we refund each other and whack up the Live stream 40$ a head?????"

  6. #6
    I have 1% of this. Should be a hell of a sweat

    glhf everyone

  7. #7
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I booked a 2125/500 where I get the 2125 if Daniel wins, and he gets 500 if Doug wins.

    Not anyone from here (to my knowledge).

    Sorry, Srsly, but I gotta root for Daniel now.

     
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      shoeshine box: fantastic bet.you won making it! gd job.

  8. #8
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Still taking more action if anyone wants Doug.

    I can do this because of the odds which makes the risk on my side much lower.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I booked a 2125/500 where I get the 2125 if Daniel wins, and he gets 500 if Doug wins.

    Not anyone from here (to my knowledge).

    Sorry, Srsly, but I gotta root for Daniel now.
    No worries Druff, none of this is personal for me.

    I can tell you a few things that might dissaude you from betting further. But if after hearing it you're still open to more action I'm up for another 2000/500.

  10. #10
    Srsly Sirius, pm me the info or post here so I know how much money to load on Doug.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Still taking more action if anyone wants Doug.

    I can do this because of the odds which makes the risk on my side much lower.
    Druff Iím game to make a bet with you at +425 for a sweat. PM me for amount?

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    when is new high stakes poker eps airing because they are out of their fucking minds if they think im spending $40 for 90 days access just so i can watch these two maul each other financially.
    I was interested in this match. Now I am not.

    Carry on.


    Edit
    Upon further reflection, I can’t imagine a universe where Druff would spend $40 either
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-30-2020 at 09:26 AM.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Still taking more action if anyone wants Doug.

    I can do this because of the odds which makes the risk on my side much lower.
    Druff Iím game to make a bet with you at +425 for a sweat. PM me for amount?
    Btt Druff?

  14. #14
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    SrslySirius scared me.

    He told me (privately) various reasons why he felt Doug was a bigger favorite than I gave him credit to be. While Srsly is obviously biased, his reasoning made sense, and I started to feel a lot less confident about my bet.

    Credit to Srsly for telling me this stuff instead of just taking action from me, which of course would have been fair if he wanted to do it. That was honorable of him.

    I'm only exposed $500, and my upside is over $2k, so whatever. I still don't hate it because of the long odds. I didn't place the bet believing I was a favorite to win.

    However, I don't think I want to take on any more exposure. However, if the bet amount is relatively small, I'll take your bet anyway, Sheesfaced. Let me know what you're thinking.

  15. #15
    Daniel Negreanu is a steroid using loser who goes on tilt very easily.

    More rake is better.


  16. #16
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    i'll take dnegs @ 4-1 if any one of dummies want action as well. in fact i'll take less
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  17. #17
    Anyone have the current rules for the match?

  18. #18
    Doug is a pretty big favorite to win the match, but what would the line be on how much he wins? They are to play a minimum of 12,500 hands at 200/400 stakes with 100bb stacks minimum. The losing player can ask to extend the match to 25,000 hands. I believe that Doug will 100% ask to extend if he is losing while there is not a high chance Daniel will ask to extend. So you can come at a line by estimating how many bbs Doug would win per 100 hands. If Doug wins 2bb / 100 hands he will come ahead 100k, if he wins 10bb / 100 he will come ahead 500k. You can use the simple equation of x*400*12500/100 to estimate Doug's win where x is the bb won per 100. This is ignoring the potential rake in the game.

    I think the games will be raked by wsop.com, the rake for 25/50 hu on wsop.com caps at 2.25$ a hand. There is currently no rake amounts listed for 200/400 (no flop no drop though, so maybe it will work out to 1$ a hand). If they could get a time rake obviously that would be much better for them. Rake online has been terrible for years but that is entirely another issue. So rake could take a small amount of the profits of the match. Let's estimate the rake to take 50$ / 100 hands so now plugging that into the equation you subtract the original by 50*12500/100. If you estimate a different amount change the 50$, there is a limit that it would obviously cap at, but it is not completely known. I'd guess the rake for the 12,500 hands played could be anywhere from as low as 6,000 to as high as 20,000. Daniel had wanted to play for play money on ggpoker avoiding the rake entirely but Doug insisted on using wsop.com (which has no play money options anymore).

    Now of course a balanced line depends on what action the bets decide, Doug seemingly set the line for himself at -400 to win the match but at standard line odds of -110 it isn't known what the line from the public would be. Doug has claimed he could net over 1 million from the event, but I believe that includes side action so let's say Doug thinks he will win 250k on average. I think the betting public would take the over on that while the sharper betters would probably take the under. Maybe srslysirius has some private info he could offer here to help. Would be interested to hear what people think and what they would estimate a good line to be. In fact having typed all this I will offer my current pfa freeroll money (I think its at least 25$) into a contest in which the closest to the amount won on the match would get. So if you read this far you now have some extra incentive to give your line! So if you include the phrase 'back up the money truck' or 'let me get five big macs' in your response with your line you will be eligible for this contest. Closest to the amount wins, (not price is right rules, no repeat guesses) You would have to of course reply before play commences.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    SrslySirius scared me.

    He told me (privately) various reasons why he felt Doug was a bigger favorite than I gave him credit to be. While Srsly is obviously biased, his reasoning made sense, and I started to feel a lot less confident about my bet.

    Credit to Srsly for telling me this stuff instead of just taking action from me, which of course would have been fair if he wanted to do it. That was honorable of him.

    I'm only exposed $500, and my upside is over $2k, so whatever. I still don't hate it because of the long odds. I didn't place the bet believing I was a favorite to win.

    However, I don't think I want to take on any more exposure. However, if the bet amount is relatively small, I'll take your bet anyway, Sheesfaced. Let me know what you're thinking.
    Thatís totally fair; I respect that. I honestly have no clue what a fair line is was just looking for a sweat so I donít want you to feel obligated to take my action at all. Iíd do up to $1000 on Polk but willing to do less. Happy to escrow my end with you beforehand too b/c I obviously trust you to pay out. So totally up to you if you want more action, just let me know. Iím good either way.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    i'll take dnegs @ 4-1 if any one of dummies want action as well. in fact i'll take less
    Mulva Iíll give you some action. How much you wanting to bet?

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