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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #121
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    First poll to crack and hedge back to 2016 turnout.

    DM Register, Iowa.

    Will be interesting to see how many more across the country do it too.

    That’s what happened in 2016 for all those that forgot, Clinton constantly showed up 6-10 until the polls the final three days all magically swung 3 points towards Trump.

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    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    First poll to crack and hedge back to 2016 turnout.

    DM Register, Iowa.

    Will be interesting to see how many more across the country do it too.

    That’s what happened in 2016 for all those that forgot, Clinton constantly showed up 6-10 until the polls the final three days all magically swung 3 points towards Trump.
    Fact check: True.

    Though in 2016 we know what the catalyst was. The Comey letter dropped 3 days before the election and the polls swung towards Trump. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be now, but this should be the poll that worries Biden the most at the moment. Every pollster on the planet is about to drop their final poll in the next couple days, so we'll see what it is.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.

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    This should send shivers down any trumptards spine

  4. #124
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.

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    This should send shivers down any trumptards spine

    I see this map as the most likely result.

    The market sees this as the most likely result.

    Race is over and most people, including insiders in DC, know it.

    Only thing that’s going to “send shivers” down anyone’s back is if the exit poling doesn’t go the way as expected in Wi/Mi.

    Then it’s going to be an uncomfortable afternoon for Biden.

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    Diamond dwai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    This should send shivers down any trumptards spine

    I see this map as the most likely result.

    The market sees this as the most likely result.

    Race is over and most people, including insiders in DC, know it.

    Only thing that’s going to “send shivers” down anyone’s back is if the exit poling doesn’t go the way as expected in Wi/Mi.

    Then it’s going to be an uncomfortable afternoon for Biden.


    you people never learn

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post


    I see this map as the most likely result.

    The market sees this as the most likely result.

    Race is over and most people, including insiders in DC, know it.

    Only thing that’s going to “send shivers” down anyone’s back is if the exit poling doesn’t go the way as expected in Wi/Mi.

    Then it’s going to be an uncomfortable afternoon for Biden.


    you people never learn
    he's a trump supporter..

  7. #127
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post


    you people never learn
    he's a trump supporter..

    1. Easy with the slander BD. I’m not a “trump guy”.

    2. DWAI - not sure what I said here except the 100% truth. According to polls and oddsmakers this race is over. If we start to get different results in the central north that would change things but it would be unexpected.

     
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      big dick: My bad I thought you were

  8. #128
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    he's a trump supporter..

    1. Easy with the slander BD. I’m not a “trump guy”.

    2. DWAI - not sure what I said here except the 100% truth. According to polls and oddsmakers this race is over. If we start to get different results in the central north that would change things but it would be unexpected.
    What are the sportsbooks giving on NC? I know it’s basically a flip on predictit. With the early vote metrics and extended deadline, it feels like it’s going Biden. It feels a safer buffer than AZ from everything I’ve seen. There are 3 or 4 states in a similar spot, but NC with a Dem governor feels safest of the coinflips.

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post


    1. Easy with the slander BD. I’m not a “trump guy”.

    2. DWAI - not sure what I said here except the 100% truth. According to polls and oddsmakers this race is over. If we start to get different results in the central north that would change things but it would be unexpected.
    What are the sportsbooks giving on NC? I know it’s basically a flip on predictit. With the early vote metrics and extended deadline, it feels like it’s going Biden. It feels a safer buffer than AZ from everything I’ve seen.
    Biden is roughly -130-140 in AZ and around -120 in NC

     
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      BCR: Thx

  10. #130
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I think FL, NC, AZ, and NE-02 will go blue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  11. #131
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    First poll to crack and hedge back to 2016 turnout.

    DM Register, Iowa.

    Will be interesting to see how many more across the country do it too.

    That’s what happened in 2016 for all those that forgot, Clinton constantly showed up 6-10 until the polls the final three days all magically swung 3 points towards Trump.
    Fact check: True.

    Though in 2016 we know what the catalyst was. The Comey letter dropped 3 days before the election and the polls swung towards Trump. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be now, but this should be the poll that worries Biden the most at the moment. Every pollster on the planet is about to drop their final poll in the next couple days, so we'll see what it is.
    Comey letter was 11 days ahead of the election in 2016 and for sure played a part in the outcome.

    There is an outlier in the poll, IA-01 district shows +9 Trump, in a D held House District. If that's anywhere near true, Wisconsin and Michigan on election night might be interesting. My guess that part of the data could be bad and maybe it is really Trump +5 in the Statewide.

    The pollsters changed up their tactics this time. Even heading into election day there were a lot of "undecided voters" in 2016. Which were really Trump voters hiding. This time most of the polls haven't given the voters an undecided choice. The DM Register poll gave them "Undecided" and "Won't Say". That totaled 7% which my guess is that's the embarrassed Trump supporter. I think there's only two ways the polling data is wrong this time. Trump voters are flat out lying to the pollsters (which I think is very possible) or the sampling is off (which I think is for sure true but maybe only 2-3% towards Ds which still puts Biden as a comfortable winner).

  12. #132
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    This is the country burns to the ground map.

    Which won't happen cause VA is too gone, but there might be another way to get there with AZ and the NE and ME districts.

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  13. #133
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I wouldn't put too much stock into Iowa. It has increased redness in recent years, as has Ohio.

    Obviously good news for Trump to be pulling away in the latest poll, but similar to Hillary overperforming in Colorado and Nevada (two states trending more blue), it doesn't mean much.

    It might mean that Trump isn't going to get beaten in a landslide, though. It will get really interesting if somehow Trump can win PA, because then Biden will have to sweat out having to grab Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and NC. And if somehow Trump wins Arizona, then Biden really has to sweat.

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    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It might mean that Trump isn't going to get beaten in a landslide, though. It will get really interesting if somehow Trump can win PA, because then Biden will have to sweat out having to grab Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and NC. And if somehow Trump wins Arizona, then Biden really has to sweat.
    there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

    if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

    make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

    i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


    ...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver
    Last edited by mulva; 11-01-2020 at 12:32 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  15. #135
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It might mean that Trump isn't going to get beaten in a landslide, though. It will get really interesting if somehow Trump can win PA, because then Biden will have to sweat out having to grab Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and NC. And if somehow Trump wins Arizona, then Biden really has to sweat.
    there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

    if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

    make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

    i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


    ...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver
    Based on early voting returns it looks very likely Trump wins FL. Most states are 60-40 Democrat early voting/absentee, FL is basically 50/50.

    Another state I think Trump has wrapped up is TX. People talking about the huge early returns in Texas don’t realize that 90% of that is in person early voting. I think that isn’t the same as Democrat absentee ground game.

     
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      rum dick: Nice call

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It might mean that Trump isn't going to get beaten in a landslide, though. It will get really interesting if somehow Trump can win PA, because then Biden will have to sweat out having to grab Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and NC. And if somehow Trump wins Arizona, then Biden really has to sweat.
    there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

    if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

    make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

    i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


    ...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver
    Did you really call trump trumpy?

    You're a bigger kool aid drinker than I thought. Imagine being a grown man and having a pet name for another grown man and a man you haven never even met and a man who wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire
    The LOW IQ is strong in this one

    Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than trump does of winning PA

    Arizona is NEARLY gone for trump


    trumpy has about same chance of winning PA as Biden does winning Ohio


    I saw a poll other day that show Missouri trumpy +5

    BLUE WAVE INCOMING


    OH and thanks for letting everyone know trump can't win without florida

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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post

    there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

    if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

    make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

    i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


    ...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver
    Based on early voting returns it looks very likely Trump wins FL. Most states are 60-40 Democrat early voting/absentee, FL is basically 50/50.

    Another state I think Trump has wrapped up is TX. People talking about the huge early returns in Texas don’t realize that 90% of that is in person early voting. I think that isn’t the same as Democrat absentee ground game.
    if the R's are defending texas and ga that means you're getting you're ass kicked in

    Do you know that 16 million people nationwide who did not vote in 2016 already voted in 2020?
    You think these people who sat out 2016 but barged out the door to vote this year are voting trump?

    I wouldn't doubt 10 of those 16 million are Biden backers

    Although Texas has a large rural population, the majority of Texans live in urban areas (or metropolitan statistical areas). In 2010, 84.7 percent of the Texas population lived in urban areas, and 75.4 percent lived in urban areas with 50,000 or more people.

  18. #138
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Biden is even winning that stupid single ev in Nebraska

    trump has to have that 1 vote if he's winning the super close 270-268 map
    that's why he was there the other day

    then he goes ahead and leave those stupid people who went to his rally stranded int eh cold for hours and a bunch of them ended up in the hospital

    i'm sure he lost a few votes because of it
    Last edited by big dick; 11-01-2020 at 03:57 AM.

  19. #139
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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  20. #140
    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    It will get really interesting if somehow Trump can win PA, because then Biden will have to sweat out having to grab Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and NC. And if somehow Trump wins Arizona, then Biden really has to sweat.
    Biden can win without PA, but he becomes an underdog if he loses (he definitely can't get blown out there). However, if Biden loses PA he cannot win Ohio. It's basically impossible. If Biden wins PA by 6+, then he'll probably barely win OH. If he wins by less in PA, then he'll lose OH. However, Biden can lose a state like PA and still win a state like AZ. That is possible. This has to do with demographic correlations between the states.


    You can see this here:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...p/?cid=abcnews


    You can see they give Biden a 50% chance in OH. But now plug in PA for Trump. Now his odds in OH go from 50% to 4%. But if you look at AZ it goes from 72% to 40%.

    Also, I agree in regards to Iowa. Trump won Iowa by almost 10 points in 2016. So in a vacuum, a Trump +5 in Iowa poll is not bad. If Biden swings 5 points in the midwest that's good news for him. Also, the poll is likely an outlier. Sort of like the opposite of the Wisconsin +17 poll, which was also likely just an outlier. Good pollsters will sometimes have outliers. In fact, that can be the mark of a good pollster. What's bad is when a pollster has a poll that looks like an outlier so instead of publishing it, they bury it or they play with the numbers to get it closer to what the median is. No reputable pollster wants to publish an outlier when they know it's more likely that their poll is an outlier as opposed to a poll that is capturing a legitimate swing. Well, you can see the problem with this. It's possible their poll wasn't an outlier and now they just buried it and perhaps 3 other pollsters did the same, so we never even get a sense that there was a swing. This is called 'herding', where you try to get your poll to look more like what the average is saying so your polling company doesn't look like a fool.

    So you still want to look at averages, not cherry pick your favorite polls. But you don't want pollsters to dump the polls that have the potential to be cherry picked. That would produce bad averages.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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