Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.
And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
I think your perspective of the Presidential election mostly from a betting perspective is great, a fun read. And I don't think I really ever actually knew, that much about you, and your a smart dude, with a real unique perspective on things actually. Anyway I been liking the PLOL betting posts/perspective this year for sure man...
I think Biden is a live dawg and if you can get good plus odds on Biden, its at least a sweat come election night....
Minneapolis-St Paul is where that white cop killed that black dude which kind of started this whole mess we have today in ways, so the belief is there will be some sort of Democratic/Liberal uprising and win in and around MN. If MN goes Biden blue and it could, that is another way I could see Trump in bad shape election night. But this is fun stuff, election night it will all unfold lol..
Again: It won't, because it isn't real.
Anybody who believes this was already voting for Trump because they have been groomed to swallow anything the right wing lie machine spews out in much the same way that OSA has groomed himself to swallow the filthy loads spewed out by one anonymous grindr date after another.
Nobody who lives in reality believes it, because at the risk of repeating myself, it isn't real.
SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798
PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
are u gonna be able to pay me moron??
https://www.270towin.com/maps/RAYQX
Trump traded up to a 36% chance that he will pardon himself a couple days ago. This is... too high. If Biden wins, this market will probably see another spike and I will likely be moving some money into this market post-election (on the NO side).
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
There's also this market, "Will Trump complete his first term". I think the conspiracy theory here is Trump will resign and let Mike Pence pardon him. The "yes" side here is pretty free money:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
Some other pardon/clemency markets:
Giuliani (13%)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...re-end-of-2020
Manafort (49%)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
Flynn (35%)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
All of these markets expire on January 20th
^^^ Excellent post right there.
I agree with all of it.
The only downsides:
- These are all favorite bets, so the withdrawal fees (on top of the profit fees) will kill you if you need to deposit to make these bets
- They don't resolve until January 20, which kinda blows
But I have to think all of these are free money. If I could parlay them all, I would. (Maybe it would be considered a correlated parlay, but it's a moot point since you can't anyway.)
I would watch out with Biden bets for Arizona.
I'm not sure if Arizona is ready to flip yet. Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, which is a fairly big margin, and he was forecasted as a "tossup" almost all pollsters. They got Arizona very wrong.
Of course, if you think Trump is going to lose there, this is the time to fire, as you can get almost even money (53 cents for Biden right now on PredictIt, which is the lowest it's been in several months. I should have bet Biden NO at 30c on October 7, which I considered, but chickened out.
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