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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #81
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    burisma could squash or eliminate biden.....peeps are looking for option 2345
    No it can't, because it's not real.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  2. #82



    I am making the following changes to my forecast:
    Pennsylvania Safe D -> Lean D
    Wisconsin Safe D -> Lean D
    Arizona Lean D -> Tilt D
    Ohio Tossup -> Tilt R
    Montana Senate Tilt R -> Lean R
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-23-2020 at 11:41 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post



    I am making the following changes to my forecast:
    Pennsylvania Safe D -> Lean D
    Wisconsin Safe D -> Lean D
    Arizona Lean D -> Tilt D
    Ohio Tossup -> Tilt R
    Montana Senate Tilt R -> Lean R
    Plop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?

    Also do you still feel MN D is free money?

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post



    I am making the following changes to my forecast:
    Pennsylvania Safe D -> Lean D
    Wisconsin Safe D -> Lean D
    Arizona Lean D -> Tilt D
    Ohio Tossup -> Tilt R
    Montana Senate Tilt R -> Lean R
    Plop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?

    Also do you still feel MN D is free money?
    Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

    And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.

     
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      Sheesfaced: Thanks
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  5. #85
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post

    Plop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?

    Also do you still feel MN D is free money?
    Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

    And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.

    I think your perspective of the Presidential election mostly from a betting perspective is great, a fun read. And I don't think I really ever actually knew, that much about you, and your a smart dude, with a real unique perspective on things actually. Anyway I been liking the PLOL betting posts/perspective this year for sure man...


    I think Biden is a live dawg and if you can get good plus odds on Biden, its at least a sweat come election night....

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post

    Plop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?

    Also do you still feel MN D is free money?
    Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

    And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
    aight PLOP emptied the the rest of my predictit account on MN...ill fire more bullets with you if sports cooperate this weekend...

    let's fucking get this money!

     
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      PLOL: leggo

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post

    Plop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?

    Also do you still feel MN D is free money?
    Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

    And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
    Newb question but for MN makes more sense to buy republican no than buy Dem yes correct?

    N/M disregard its obviously yes
    Last edited by Sheesfaced; 10-23-2020 at 12:50 PM.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

    And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
    Newb question but for MN makes more sense to buy republican no than buy Dem yes correct?
    That's correct, you should bid Rep NO for 69 cents. 68 cents if you're feeling greedy. Looking at the order book the 69s should get filled fairly quickly. The 68s will be a longer wait.

     
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      Sheesfaced: Yep I was confused for a sec. thx
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  9. #89
    Platinum garrett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sheesfaced View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.

    And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
    Newb question but for MN makes more sense to buy republican no than buy Dem yes correct?

    Minneapolis-St Paul is where that white cop killed that black dude which kind of started this whole mess we have today in ways, so the belief is there will be some sort of Democratic/Liberal uprising and win in and around MN. If MN goes Biden blue and it could, that is another way I could see Trump in bad shape election night. But this is fun stuff, election night it will all unfold lol..

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    burisma could squash or eliminate biden.....peeps are looking for option 2345
    Over 50,000,000 people and 1/3 of the overall electorate already voted. When, exactly, is burisma going to come back to bite biden again? 2024?

    I sure hope trump doesn’t bring it up at the debates.

  11. #91
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    burisma could squash or eliminate biden.....peeps are looking for option 2345
    Over 50,000,000 people and 1/3 of the overall electorate already voted. When, exactly, is burisma going to come back to bite biden again? 2024?

    I sure hope trump doesn’t bring it up at the debates.
    Again: It won't, because it isn't real.

    Anybody who believes this was already voting for Trump because they have been groomed to swallow anything the right wing lie machine spews out in much the same way that Onestep has groomed himself to swallow the filthy loads spewed out by one anonymous grindr date after another.

    Nobody who lives in reality believes it, because at the risk of repeating myself, it isn't real.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post

    Over 50,000,000 people and 1/3 of the overall electorate already voted. When, exactly, is burisma going to come back to bite biden again? 2024?

    I sure hope trump doesn’t bring it up at the debates.
    Again: It won't, because it isn't real.

    Anybody who believes this was already voting for Trump because they have been groomed to swallow anything the right wing lie machine spews out in much the same way that Onestep has groomed himself to swallow the filthy loads spewed out by one anonymous grindr date after another.

    Nobody who lives in reality believes it, because at the risk of repeating myself, it isn't real.
    just like Russia right?

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post



    I am making the following changes to my forecast:
    Pennsylvania Safe D -> Lean D
    Wisconsin Safe D -> Lean D
    Arizona Lean D -> Tilt D
    Ohio Tossup -> Tilt R
    Montana Senate Tilt R -> Lean R




    u in the red yet moron??

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??
    Holding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave

    Name:  
Views: 
Size:


    Portfolio Value $18,124.69
    Gain/Loss + $3,800.42



    u cant be up more than $300 gimpy

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??
    Holding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave

    Name:  
Views: 
Size:


    Portfolio Value $18,124.69
    Gain/Loss + $3,800.42



    u cant be up more than $300 gimpy
    A little over $600 but does any of that really matter if you're just sitting on your positions for the next 11 days. It literally just shows unrealized G/L
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  16. #96
    are u gonna be able to pay me moron??


    https://www.270towin.com/maps/RAYQX

  17. #97
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    are u gonna be able to pay me moron??


    https://www.270towin.com/maps/RAYQX
    You posting a map you created is very convincing.

     
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      garrett: lol
      
      thesidedish: Wasn't funny at all, mr special needs
      
      PLOL: we have a bet and he took the side of trump getting 300+ EVs lol
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  18. #98
    Trump traded up to a 36% chance that he will pardon himself a couple days ago. This is... too high. If Biden wins, this market will probably see another spike and I will likely be moving some money into this market post-election (on the NO side).
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
     
    Lol
    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-10-24 at 12.48.51 PM.png
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    There's also this market, "Will Trump complete his first term". I think the conspiracy theory here is Trump will resign and let Mike Pence pardon him. The "yes" side here is pretty free money:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term


    Some other pardon/clemency markets:
    Giuliani (13%)
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...re-end-of-2020

    Manafort (49%)
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term

    Flynn (35%)
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term


    All of these markets expire on January 20th

     
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      Dan Druff: very good post
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-24-2020 at 09:52 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  19. #99
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    ^^^ Excellent post right there.

    I agree with all of it.

    The only downsides:

    - These are all favorite bets, so the withdrawal fees (on top of the profit fees) will kill you if you need to deposit to make these bets

    - They don't resolve until January 20, which kinda blows


    But I have to think all of these are free money. If I could parlay them all, I would. (Maybe it would be considered a correlated parlay, but it's a moot point since you can't anyway.)

  20. #100
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I would watch out with Biden bets for Arizona.

    I'm not sure if Arizona is ready to flip yet. Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, which is a fairly big margin, and he was forecasted as a "tossup" almost all pollsters. They got Arizona very wrong.

    Of course, if you think Trump is going to lose there, this is the time to fire, as you can get almost even money (53 cents for Biden right now on PredictIt, which is the lowest it's been in several months. I should have bet Biden NO at 30c on October 7, which I considered, but chickened out.

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