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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Yes bitch

    Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.

    so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
    I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post


    so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
    I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.

    ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit

  3. #63
    PLOP help a brotha out here...

    this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...

    Name:  trumppop.PNG
Views: 147
Size:  67.5 KB

    EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...

  4. #64
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Yeah it’s amazing how much pull Wisconsin gets in that 538 map.

    If you fill in all the “cut the shit” states It shows 88/12 Biden.

    CTS states plus Wis for Biden and it goes to 97/3

    CTS states and Wis for Trump and it flips all the way to 27/70 (opens up a tie).

    No other state gets that pull

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    PLOP help a brotha out here...

    this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...

    Name:  trumppop.PNG
Views: 147
Size:  67.5 KB

    EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...
    Markets are capped at 5,000 traders. So in order to trade that market you need to have traded at least 1 share at some point to be a participant. But yeah, it's free money. It's not a stale price, it's just people being silly.

    Biden is trading at 10% to drop out before November 1st. Just go take the free 10 cents and then when it expires on November 1st move the money into another election market.
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ore-November-1

    There's a lot of "free money" markets out there if you don't have the stomach to gamble on swing states.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Yeah it’s amazing how much pull Wisconsin gets in that 538 map.

    If you fill in all the “cut the shit” states It shows 88/12 Biden.

    CTS states plus Wis for Biden and it goes to 97/3

    CTS states and Wis for Trump and it flips all the way to 27/70 (opens up a tie).

    No other state gets that pull
    I mean if you give Michigan to Trump, his odds go up to 85%. If you give PA to Trump he goes to 72%. Give him WI and it goes to 73%. It's because PA/WI/MI are pretty heavily correlated. The model thinks of those 3, MI is the most difficult. So it assumes that if he wins MI he's heavily favored to win WI and PA. It also means you're likely winning FL, AZ and thus the election.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.

    ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit
    Booked.

    For the record:
    I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push

    I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.

    We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.

    Good luck
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post


    ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit
    Booked.

    For the record:
    I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push

    I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.

    We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.

    Good luck

    no excuses not to pay, all scams have to be accepted as a paid result or ban

     
    Comments
      
      PLOL: yes, of course
      
      Rick Sanchez: gl bro

  9. #69
    Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.

    Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.

     
    Comments
      
      Sheesfaced: lol
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.


    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.

    Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.


    and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger

  11. #71
    Sanlmar, there's a new SSG podcast out. It's a worthwhile listen. You can find it here:
    https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...mart-hysteria/

    Edit: Lol, I just listened and I got a shout-out towards the end at 46:25

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Thx. You would crush any market or game you set your mind to. Deserve a shout out.
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-21-2020 at 02:05 PM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.

    Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.


    and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger

    Are you upset dish that you weren't the kid with the big dick in HS? lol
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.


    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post



    and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger

    Are you upset dish that you weren't the kid with the big dick in HS? lol

    quit being a perv moron. i was about to call him the new hongthonger anyways, figured i could use ur post too

  14. #74
    found out this morning i could parlay trump + senate winner on sportsbook so naturally took some, gonna be banking 1000s


    Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 1,150.00Result: Pending
    2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
    Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
    2020 Election US Senate Winner - Arizona
    Martha McSally (R) vs Mark Kelly (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTMartha McSally (R) +400


    Bet $ 287.49 to win $ 1,056.21Result: Pending
    2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
    Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
    2020 Election US Senate Winner - Iowa
    Joni Ernst (R) vs Theresa Greenfield (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTJoni Ernst (R) -115


    Bet $ 280.00 to win $ 717.87Result: Pending
    2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
    Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
    2020 Election US Senate Winner - Georgia
    David Perdue (R) vs John Ossoff (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTDavid Perdue (R) -235

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    found out this morning i could parlay trump + senate winner on sportsbook so naturally took some, gonna be banking 1000s


    Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 1,150.00Result: Pending
    2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
    Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
    2020 Election US Senate Winner - Arizona
    Martha McSally (R) vs Mark Kelly (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTMartha McSally (R) +400


    Bet $ 287.49 to win $ 1,056.21Result: Pending
    2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
    Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
    2020 Election US Senate Winner - Iowa
    Joni Ernst (R) vs Theresa Greenfield (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTJoni Ernst (R) -115


    Bet $ 280.00 to win $ 717.87Result: Pending
    2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
    Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
    2020 Election US Senate Winner - Georgia
    David Perdue (R) vs John Ossoff (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTDavid Perdue (R) -235
    I like it. This is really dumb on your book's part. You should take advantage
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  16. #76
    LOL what book is that? Can you parlay states? I can't believe they would let you do that for correlated props

  17. #77
    Nova Scotia's REAL #1 Webcam DJ sonatine's Avatar
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    listen, dish, your instinct is going to be to try to fondle balls when youre sucking your mandatory tranny dicks.

    be warned; there probably arent any balls.

     
    Comments
      
      Onestep: hahahahaha
      
      Walter Sobchak: LOL
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs


  18. #78
    Thread delivers

    So many people have already voted.

    There are so few undecided in a very polarized race, as well.

    I didn’t watch debate because my vote is non refundable.

    Thus, I will be intrigued to follow how Plop trades this. Will there really be any volatility?
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-23-2020 at 10:10 AM.

  19. #79
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by badguy23 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Well if my options are +101 Greenfield, -114 Ernst. Then I'm going with Greenfield but I don't love it.

    If we're talking general election, I'm comparatively bullish on Trump in Iowa relative to states like Georgia, Ohio, and possibly even Texas. Texas and Georgia are very urban (and urbanizing more rapidly), while Iowa is overwhelmingly rural and not all that dynamic. But it depends on the price you can get. I bet Trump in Iowa at -150 on Bovada last week but I believe the line has moved up. I would not pay -200 for it.

    Iowa is a state I generally advise laying off of.
    You heard it here first!!!

    Greenfield is the pick in Iowa

    Who the fuck wears a suit while riding a tractor and pitching straw lol
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  20. #80
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    An electoral college tie would be the end of the country.
    Average Democrat citizen night of the election:

    Oh a tie - so it goes to the house. Seems fair.

    House has a big majority of Democrats - Biden would win. Seems fair given the scenario.

    Oh not all electoral college voters are legally bound to vote the way the stare did so trump could still win. I hope everybody does the right thing.

    OK good everyone pledged to uphold the state vote - so it does go to the house, Biden Wins.

    What do you mean each state in the house gets one vote? Majority within the state gets the one vote?

    What do you mean The GOP has the by State Majority????????

    Fucking Trump wins??? WHAT THE FUCK.

    At least we get VP Biden again.
    Once again, we are helplessly hoping that our absolutely retarded system does not come back to fuck us.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

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