lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance
lol..@ every poll i see or read.
lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.
put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
U.S. Presidential Election Props
Second Presidential Debate Total Viewers
Under 67½ Million -150
Over 67½ Million +110
Under is money?
Unwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.
Reasonable number have already voted.
Minds already made up @ this late date.
The novelty of the two together has expired
Yeah, football, I guess.
If you don’t know then I sure don’t. Just a thought.
Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.
Yeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.
I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
PokerFraudAlert...will never censor your claims, even if they're against one of our sponsors. In addition to providing you an open forum report fraud within the poker community, we will also analyze your claims with a clear head an unbiased point of view. And, of course, the accused will always have the floor to defend themselves.-Dan Druff
538 just released an interactive electoral map. Have you played around with this yet PLOP?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/
What makes this different from a typical election map is that every state is in probabilistic flux. Once you pick a state for either candidate, that probability becomes 100% and it reruns the 40k simulations based on their model.
clicking just TX, OH and IA, states trump won in 2016 by at least 8% puts him at 32% FFS
plop, u need to bail man
sorry are we still cosplaying that texas is blue or nah?
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
I agree that he probably wins all of those states, but they're by no means a lock, especially FL and GA. Guaranteeing those states while leaving states like MI as tossups will of course be a great outcome for Trump. Basically this is like getting it all in on the flop with 40% equity, agreeing to run it 6 times, and your opponent generously spots you the first 2 runs.
If you lock in FL, GA, OH, and IA for Trump, but you also lock in obvious Dem strongholds WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, NY, IL, and VA for Biden (all states that he is 90%+ to win), then Trump's probability goes down to 44%. This is because Trump technically had some equity in those states, just as Biden had some in FL/GA/OH/IA.
damn click on wisconsin though, if that goes red, trump will win
(like i've said from the beginning by the way)
Did CO and VA have senate races that were within a couple points in 2018 and massive demographic shifts making them redder by the day? Even Druff acknowledges the Texas (and Georgia) problem for Republicans. He just thinks it's a 2024 problem.
But no, I don't have a "shit ton" on Texas. I have like $750. I wish I had more at +325 odds, but don't think I'll see that line again.
There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 3 guests)