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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #41
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance

    lol..@ every poll i see or read.

    lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.





    put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  2. #42
    U.S. Presidential Election Props
    Second Presidential Debate Total Viewers
    Under 67Ĺ Million -150
    Over 67Ĺ Million +110

    Under is money?

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    U.S. Presidential Election Props
    Second Presidential Debate Total Viewers
    Under 67Ĺ Million -150
    Over 67Ĺ Million +110

    Under is money?
    I honestly have no idea. Last debate was 73 million. What's the reasoning for lower numbers this debate? Is it competing with football or something?
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post
    lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance

    lol..@ every poll i see or read.

    lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.





    put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
    Facts don't care about your feelings.

     
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      Walter Sobchak: this
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    U.S. Presidential Election Props
    Second Presidential Debate Total Viewers
    Under 67Ĺ Million -150
    Over 67Ĺ Million +110

    Under is money?
    I honestly have no idea. Last debate was 73 million. What's the reasoning for lower numbers this debate? Is it competing with football or something?
    Unwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.

    Reasonable number have already voted.

    Minds already made up @ this late date.

    The novelty of the two together has expired

    Yeah, football, I guess.


    If you don’t know then I sure don’t. Just a thought.


    Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I honestly have no idea. Last debate was 73 million. What's the reasoning for lower numbers this debate? Is it competing with football or something?
    Unwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.

    Reasonable number have already voted.

    Minds already made up @ this late date.

    The novelty of the two together has expired

    Yeah, football, I guess.


    If you donít know then I sure donít. Just a thought.


    Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.
    Yeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.

    I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Unwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.

    Reasonable number have already voted.

    Minds already made up @ this late date.

    The novelty of the two together has expired

    Yeah, football, I guess.


    If you donít know then I sure donít. Just a thought.


    Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.
    Yeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.

    I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
    How's your Florida position looking?

    At this point, what's your total electoral college prediction?
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyde View Post
    I am a nice human being who enjoys being upbeat and affable with others

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Yeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.

    I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
    How's your Florida position looking?

    At this point, what's your total electoral college prediction?
    I'm upside down a bit in Florida. I am holding until expiration unless something changes there.

    I still have FL, NC, and AZ going for Biden. I have IA, OH, and TX going for Trump but I'm still bullish on Biden in TX (and OH to a lesser extent) relative to his price.
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    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  9. #49
    538 just released an interactive electoral map. Have you played around with this yet PLOP?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

    What makes this different from a typical election map is that every state is in probabilistic flux. Once you pick a state for either candidate, that probability becomes 100% and it reruns the 40k simulations based on their model.

     
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      PLOL: ty, good shit

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    538 just released an interactive electoral map. Have you played around with this yet PLOP?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

    What makes this different from a typical election map is that every state is in probabilistic flux. Once you pick a state for either candidate, that probability becomes 100% and it reruns the 40k simulations based on their model.

    pretty sweet. and all i had to do was click FL, GA (lock), OH (lock) and IA (lock) for Trump and hes over 50% chance, ya'll are in denial this isnt the sequel #DISH$TRUCK2

  11. #51
    clicking just TX, OH and IA, states trump won in 2016 by at least 8% puts him at 32% FFS


    plop, u need to bail man

  12. #52
    Nova Scotia's REAL #1 Webcam DJ sonatine's Avatar
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    sorry are we still cosplaying that texas is blue or nah?
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs


  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    538 just released an interactive electoral map. Have you played around with this yet PLOP?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

    What makes this different from a typical election map is that every state is in probabilistic flux. Once you pick a state for either candidate, that probability becomes 100% and it reruns the 40k simulations based on their model.

    pretty sweet. and all i had to do was click FL, GA (lock), OH (lock) and IA (lock) for Trump and hes over 50% chance, ya'll are in denial this isnt the sequel #DISH$TRUCK2
    I agree that he probably wins all of those states, but they're by no means a lock, especially FL and GA. Guaranteeing those states while leaving states like MI as tossups will of course be a great outcome for Trump. Basically this is like getting it all in on the flop with 40% equity, agreeing to run it 6 times, and your opponent generously spots you the first 2 runs.

    If you lock in FL, GA, OH, and IA for Trump, but you also lock in obvious Dem strongholds WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, NY, IL, and VA for Biden (all states that he is 90%+ to win), then Trump's probability goes down to 44%. This is because Trump technically had some equity in those states, just as Biden had some in FL/GA/OH/IA.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    clicking just TX, OH and IA, states trump won in 2016 by at least 8% puts him at 32% FFS


    plop, u need to bail man
    click Pa for democrats and see what happens even if you give trump every state you mentioned

  15. #55
    damn click on wisconsin though, if that goes red, trump will win

    (like i've said from the beginning by the way)

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    damn click on wisconsin though, if that goes red, trump will win

    (like i've said from the beginning by the way)
    LOL WTF

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  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    sorry are we still cosplaying that texas is blue or nah?
    Yes bitch

    Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-21-2020 at 10:36 AM.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  18. #58
    The map is fake news. It won't let me pick Hawaii or New York for Trump (which is what the highly reliable Northpol Model has).
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    sorry are we still cosplaying that texas is blue or nah?
    Yes bitch

    Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.

    so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Yes bitch

    Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.

    so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
    Did CO and VA have senate races that were within a couple points in 2018 and massive demographic shifts making them redder by the day? Even Druff acknowledges the Texas (and Georgia) problem for Republicans. He just thinks it's a 2024 problem.

    But no, I don't have a "shit ton" on Texas. I have like $750. I wish I had more at +325 odds, but don't think I'll see that line again.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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