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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #381
    A lot of movement in the cabinet markets recently. I scooped up some more NO shares for Pompeo and Ben Carson this morning at 84c. Great value!

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  2. #382
    Here's an interesting market that I haven't messed with yet. I'm tempted to fire on all the Nos down to Dec22, which is effectively like betting "Yes Dec22 or later" at 16c. Emily Murphy is a Trump stooge who won't even answer what condition she is waiting for to do her job. She just might go the distance.

    If I do it won't be for max bet, as this is actually gambling and not free money. It's better to bet on outcomes that have already happened!

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  3. #383
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    A lot of movement in the cabinet markets recently. I scooped up some more NO shares for Pompeo and Ben Carson this morning at 84c. Great value!

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    Carson went to 23 cents a few hours ago, lol. Maybe Sleepy Joe will keep him on?

    Once the states start paying out, I'll be moving more money into the cabinet markets.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  4. #384
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post

    Once the states start paying out, I'll be moving more money into the cabinet markets.
    Cabinet markets?

    What a delightful hobby. My mind is blown

    At some point you have to describe your discipline to keep your mind unadulterated by sosh noise and infotainment like Fox & CNN

  5. #385
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post

    Once the states start paying out, I'll be moving more money into the cabinet markets.
    Cabinet markets?

    What a delightful hobby. My mind is blown

    At some point you have to describe your discipline to keep your mind unadulterated by sosh noise and infotainment like Fox & CNN
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      Crowe Diddly: tremendous
      
      ToasterOven: lolsssssssssssssssssssssss
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  6. #386
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post


    Might wanna recheck that. Biden 90-105k will be 40c in a few days. Get in early guys.
    Let's check in to see how Onestep's other pick is going. Is it at 40 cents yet?

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    Oh.... yikes. Down to 13.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-Pennsylvania
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    Final check-in on OneStep's stellar prediction. Now at 2 cents. Yikes. Thankfully Onestep's reputation is pretty well known to where I don't think anybody is dumb enough to listen to his picks.

    Just a heads up, you may want to short SWBI. Onestep has a large long position on it. Could be a good opposite pick.

     
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      big dick: HE DESERVES TO BE POOR
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  7. #387
    just curious, anybody had any sportsbook pay them out yet?

    still waiting on mine...not expecting anything until it's officially official, but just wanted to see if anybody else is in the same boat...

  8. #388
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    just curious, anybody had any sportsbook pay them out yet?

    still waiting on mine...not expecting anything until it's officially official, but just wanted to see if anybody else is in the same boat...
    Iím owed 4K still

  9. #389
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    Here's an interesting market that I haven't messed with yet. I'm tempted to fire on all the Nos down to Dec22, which is effectively like betting "Yes Dec22 or later" at 16c. Emily Murphy is a Trump stooge who won't even answer what condition she is waiting for to do her job. She just might go the distance.

    If I do it won't be for max bet, as this is actually gambling and not free money. It's better to bet on outcomes that have already happened!

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    WOW, I really wasn't expecting this. Nov 23 or earlier was the least likely in my opinion and was also the concensus on PI. But here we are. I'm glad I never bet on this.



    I can no longer find the market for this though. Does PI close and pay these out so fast? Is there any way to look at closed markets?

  10. #390
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    just curious, anybody had any sportsbook pay them out yet?

    still waiting on mine...not expecting anything until it's officially official, but just wanted to see if anybody else is in the same boat...
    I’m owed 4K still
    Betonline has not paid

    I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying

  11. #391
    Picked up some NO shares at 38 cents in the market "Will Trump file to run before the end of 2021". I think it's pretty overpriced in the 60s. I think it's pretty likely that Trump either announces he'll run for president in 2024 or says he's "looking in to it very strongly". But I think it's unlikely that he actually goes through with filing with the FEC, which is what needs to happen for these shares to resolve YES. Trump always wants to build up suspense and string the media along for as long as possible with "will he/won't he talk". It's what he used to always do with his presidential runs. Why would he kill that suspense by filing right away?

    I don't know if he will ultimately run for president, but I see filing to run in 2021 as a pretty big dog. Now please don't compete with me on price too hard because I'm still building a position. If the price crashes, I will dump the shares. I think this is a market that will see a lot of pumps every time Trump goes on TV saying he's very seriously considering a 2024 run because of the disaster job Biden is doing. Buy NO shares on the pumps and then dump them when the market crashes. Rinse. Repeat. Profit.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...he-end-of-2021
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  12. #392
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    I’m owed 4K still
    Betonline has not paid

    I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying
    Certification does not equal official results. Georgia certified their results, and yet they're now doing a recount (which will change nothing). Books won't pay out until litigation ends.

    Last edited by PLOL; 11-24-2020 at 03:27 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  13. #393
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Betonline has not paid

    I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying
    Certification does not equal official results. Georgia certified their results, and yet they're now doing a recount (which will change nothing). Books won't pay out until litigation ends.


    You canít blame them. God fucking forbid they paid everyone out and then there was a reversal or some court decree.

    Be something if the predictit folks closed up shop and declared bankruptcy.

  14. #394
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  15. #395
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    Recount in Iowa has become a mess, and now it's about 50-50 as to which candidate will win IA-02. Glad I bailed out of that one at near-peak value.

    NY-22 remains very close, but is more likely to stay R.


    Oh, and the Michigan market for Trump/Biden opened up (as of last night, at least), and now you can get in and buy shares at 91c Trump NO. Free money if you have cash sitting around on the site, and you don't plan to use it for something else.

  16. #396
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    Iím owed 4K still
    Betonline has not paid

    I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying
    One of the many sacrifices I make for your freedom.


  17. #397
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    We have hit the stage where Biden bettors are now upset and looking for compensation because they have missed the runup in BTC

  18. #398
    Mybookie is paying out bets... on both sides.

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  19. #399
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Mybookie is paying out bets... on both sides.


    This is brilliant. They have already doubled or better most of the BTc deposits so they doubled up money on both candidates and where Biden was 1:2 they really cleaned up.

    about 1 out of 9 will be able to roll over the freeplay.

    Talk about walking away happy for almost everyone..... but in truth it’s the book that really cleaned up.

  20. #400
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    How is this possible? Seriously, I'm not a big bettor. Are these people pouring money into Trump winning right now on November 26th?

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