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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #21
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Tuesday Nov 03 - 2020 Presidential Election
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be next elected President in 2020 Election
    D Trump elected President
    +135
    D Trump not elected President
    -180
    Tuesday Nov 03 - 2020 Presidential Election - Electoral College
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Arizona for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Arizona
    +113
    D Trump wont win Arizona
    -150
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Florida for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Florida
    -120
    D Trump wont win Florida
    -110
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Georgia for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Georgia
    -170
    D Trump wont win Georgia
    +127
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Iowa for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Iowa
    -230
    D Trump wont win Iowa
    +168
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Michigan for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Michigan
    +200
    D Trump wont win Michigan
    -280
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Minnesota for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Minnesota
    +225
    D Trump wont win Minnesota
    -320
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in N Carolina for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins N Carolina
    -110
    D Trump wont win N Carolina
    -120
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Ohio for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Ohio
    -220
    D Trump wont win Ohio
    +160
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Pennsylvania for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Pennsylvania
    +200
    D Trump wont win Pennsylvania
    -280
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Texas for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Texas
    -400
    D Trump wont win Texas
    +270
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Wisconsin for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Wisconsin
    +200
    D Trump wont win Wisconsin
    -280
    11:00p ET Donald Trump to be the Electoral College vote winner in Nevada for 2020 Presidential Election
    D Trump wins Nevada
    +240
    D Trump wont win Nevada
    -350

  2. #22
    15 days left and Trump is starting a new battle with Dr Fauci, one of the most popular members of his administration. This is... not good political strategy. He should be focusing all his energy crafting his Biden corruption connection. He literally just can't help himself.

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    But in all fairness, it was an epicly terrible pitch by Fauci

    Edit:
    He's just too scatterbrained to have a chance of turning this around.

    Last edited by PLOL; 10-19-2020 at 12:07 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  3. #23
    Residential Neighborhood badguy23's Avatar
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    I just got this video sent to me it's Fckvwls neighbors in Arizona..




    Jewdonk sent me this btw

    Slow it down PLOP
    Last edited by badguy23; 10-19-2020 at 03:15 PM.

  4. #24
    Platinum Krypt's Avatar
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    any value in going long Greenfield (D) +101 in Iowa? Her opponent is a cringe moron who couldn’t answer a basic commodity question.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Krypt View Post
    any value in going long Greenfield (D) +101 in Iowa? Her opponent is a cringe moron who couldn’t answer a basic commodity question.
    Iowa senate race is very much a coin flip. I would pass, unless you just want to gamble.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  6. #26
    Residential Neighborhood badguy23's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Krypt View Post
    any value in going long Greenfield (D) +101 in Iowa? Her opponent is a cringe moron who couldn’t answer a basic commodity question.
    Iowa senate race is very much a coin flip. I would pass, unless you just want to gamble.

    Well we bet on Tulane at times so we def like to gamble!!

    Sorry we aint all zoomed up like the LOLstocks show.

    What's the pick in Iowa Plop?


  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by badguy23 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Iowa senate race is very much a coin flip. I would pass, unless you just want to gamble.

    Well we bet on Tulane at times so we def like to gamble

    What's the pick in Iowa Plop?
    Well if my options are +101 Greenfield, -114 Ernst. Then I'm going with Greenfield but I don't love it.

    If we're talking general election, I'm comparatively bullish on Trump in Iowa relative to states like Georgia, Ohio, and possibly even Texas. Texas and Georgia are very urban (and urbanizing more rapidly), while Iowa is overwhelmingly rural and not all that dynamic. But it depends on the price you can get. I bet Trump in Iowa at -150 on Bovada last week but I believe the line has moved up. I would not pay -200 for it.

    Iowa is a state I generally advise laying off of.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  8. #28
    Residential Neighborhood badguy23's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by badguy23 View Post


    Well we bet on Tulane at times so we def like to gamble

    What's the pick in Iowa Plop?
    Well if my options are +101 Greenfield, -114 Ernst. Then I'm going with Greenfield but I don't love it.

    If we're talking general election, I'm comparatively bullish on Trump in Iowa relative to states like Georgia, Ohio, and possibly even Texas. Texas and Georgia are very urban (and urbanizing more rapidly), while Iowa is overwhelmingly rural and not all that dynamic. But it depends on the price you can get. I bet Trump in Iowa at -150 on Bovada last week but I believe the line has moved up. I would not pay -200 for it.

    Iowa is a state I generally advise laying off of.
    You heard it here first!!!

    Greenfield is the pick in Iowa


     
    Comments
      
      PLOL: badguy is god
      
      Sanlmar: badguy will heal this country
      
      Krypt: legend

  9. #29
    Getting here is no cake walk, but here's where the map gets /really/ difficult for Trump.

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    From here, Trump needs to win Pennsylvania or Michigan. Winning Wisconsin would actually result in a 269/269 tie. I know everybody wants to wet their panties and have flashbacks to 2016, but Michigan is extremely safe this year. Biden will likely win by 8-10 points. Even if there's a strong tightening, Biden is shown doing crack with his son and wets his adult diapers on the debate stage on Thursday, Biden will still win it by 3-5 points. In Pennsylvania, similar deal. Biden will win by 6-8 points. The last time Trump led in a poll of Pennsylvania was a Trump +1 poll in late July. Since then there has been 72 polls of Pennsylvania. Biden has led in 71 of them and was tied in one. This is including FOUR Trafalgar polls that show Biden ahead. Trafalgar is the most right-leaning pollster and even they are trying to cover their ass in PA.

     
    The election we deserve scenario:

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    What to watch for on election day as the returns come in: As the late Tim Russert would say, Florida. Florida. Florida. If Biden wins Florida, it's basically over. The good news is, we /should/ know the Florida results relatively quickly. Reasons why FL would not be called on night of the election: The vote count is close enough to where the late-arriving mail-in ballots could swing the results, or the vote is close enough to warrant a recount. If Biden wins Florida, Trump now needs to win all of PA + WI + MI. While technically possible sine these states aren't that highly correlated with Florida, this is an extremely unlikely path for Trump to take.
     
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    If Trump wins Florida, the next state you would watch for the returns coming in would be PA. Unfortunately this will be a state where the vote count will come in extremely slowly. In fact, it's likely that the first returns of PA that you see will show Trump leading. This is because the in-person vote being counted first will be more Trump-leaning. The Biden mail-in ballots will be more slow to count. Keep this in mind before you start a conspiracy that the election in PA is rigged because Trump's lead keeps diminishing over time.

    Since the returns in PA will be a huge fail on election night, you may want to focus on watching MI and then WI instead.

    Trump's most likely path to victory:
     
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    What keeps me up at night: Honestly, Biden getting Covid. If Biden gets Covid in the next couple weeks I will need to do some heavy trading and it will be a huge pain in my ass. Secondarily, high-quality pollsters showing a Trump surge in PA. But I just don't see that happening. But I guess the Fake New Media has to sell us a close election to keep their ratings up.


    If I was bullish on Trump: Here's the market I would be buying:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...r-the-election

    It's very undervalued relative to Trump's price elsewhere. At 33 cents, it's one of the best value Trump buys you can find. It should be trading at a premium to Trump's EC price. Instead it's trading at a discount.


    Two more weeks. Tick tock.

     
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      Sanlmar: Must study this word for word.
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-20-2020 at 10:35 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  10. #30
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    An electoral college tie would be the end of the country.

     
    Comments
      
      PLOL: Fact check: True
      
      Walter Sobchak: Might be the end of the country anyway

  11. #31
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    An electoral college tie would be the end of the country.
    Average Democrat citizen night of the election:

    Oh a tie - so it goes to the house. Seems fair.

    House has a big majority of Democrats - Biden would win. Seems fair given the scenario.

    Oh not all electoral college voters are legally bound to vote the way the stare did so trump could still win. I hope everybody does the right thing.

    OK good everyone pledged to uphold the state vote - so it does go to the house, Biden Wins.

    What do you mean each state in the house gets one vote? Majority within the state gets the one vote?

    What do you mean The GOP has the by State Majority????????

    Fucking Trump wins??? WHAT THE FUCK.

    At least we get VP Biden again.

  12. #32
    Some of the greatest minds trade on PredictIt. Which candidate did PredictIt users buy the most shares of to be president? Did they buy shares of Trump? No. Biden? No.

     
    Did you guess Clinton? Then you are correct. Almost 70,000 more shares were bought for Clinton to be elected president, today alone. She truly is the gift that keeps on giving.

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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  13. #33
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??
    Holding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave

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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Portfolio Value $16,251.32

    Gain/Loss + $2,227.05


    how u sittin, ploptrash??
    Holding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave

    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-10-20 at 2.45.41 PM.png
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Size:  41.3 KB

    u should get out and book the win



  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Some of the greatest minds trade on PredictIt. Which candidate did PredictIt users buy the most shares of to be president? Did they buy shares of Trump? No. Biden? No.

     
    Did you guess Clinton? Then you are correct. Almost 70,000 more shares were bought for Clinton to be elected president, today alone. She truly is the gift that keeps on giving.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-10-20 at 2.36.13 PM.png
Views: 89
Size:  47.9 KB



  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by thesidedish View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Some of the greatest minds trade on PredictIt. Which candidate did PredictIt users buy the most shares of to be president? Did they buy shares of Trump? No. Biden? No.

     
    Did you guess Clinton? Then you are correct. Almost 70,000 more shares were bought for Clinton to be elected president, today alone. She truly is the gift that keeps on giving.

    Name:  Screen Shot 2020-10-20 at 2.36.13 PM.png
Views: 89
Size:  47.9 KB


    lol

    Domain was bought August 11th btw. It's called domain squatting. Ask the Seminoles about that.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  18. #38
    Also registered: BernieHarris2020.com, SandersHarris, and ObamaHarris (I guess that's Michelle running)

    It's literally just randos trying to buy $9 lottery tickets

    IT’S HAPPENING!!
    Last edited by PLOL; 10-20-2020 at 03:07 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post

    Domain was bought August 11th btw. It's called domain squatting. Ask the Seminoles about that.
    Bows and arrows vs PLOP.

    Forgot that story.

  20. #40
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    burisma could squash or eliminate biden.....peeps are looking for option 2345
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



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