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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #341
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by adamantium View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Hard to say because the election isn't over (apparently), but should be closing in on 25k.
    Nice, thats like dish territory money
    If you mean how much he lost, that's probably a low estimate.

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  2. #342

    Exclamation

    PLOL ,et al...

    Here you go Fellas! After the 3rd 4th email Promo from them I had to..a free 50.! FROM 10 TO 25 TO 50...SIGN UP DONT DEPOSIT, LOG IN A FEW TIMES.. lol
    So. I put a deuce(200)+50=250.. this is what I mimicked from Plop:

    Shares Traded!
    Pennsylvania presidential vote margin?
    Bought 100 in Biden by 75K to 90K
    47˘


    if I can you ca,,take a whack.


    here used the change I had left, being you gotta leave $ in there 30 days anyway...

    Shares Traded!
    Which party will win NV in 2020?
    Bought 200 in Democratic
    93˘
    Last edited by shoeshine box; 11-13-2020 at 01:09 AM.

  3. #343
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    PLOL ,et al...

    Here you go Fellas! After the 3rd 4th email Promo from them I had to..a free 50.! FROM 10 TO 25 TO 50...SIGN UP DONT DEPOSIT, LOG IN A FEW TIMES.. lol
    So. I put a deuce(200)+50=250.. this is what I mimicked from Plop:

    Shares Traded!
    Pennsylvania presidential vote margin?
    Bought 100 in Biden by 75K to 90K
    47˘


    if I can you ca,,take a whack.


    here used the change I had left, being you gotta leave $ in there 30 days anyway...

    Shares Traded!
    Which party will win NV in 2020?
    Bought 200 in Democratic
    93˘
    Your PA vote margin at 47c is looking pretty good. It's not free money, there's actually a chance it goes up to the next bracket, but I like your chances.

    With NV, I would actually sell that (at the same price you bought). Try not to buy yes shares (in anything really). Let's take a look at NV:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5601

    Now look under Trump and click on "buy no". Now change the buy price from 92 to 91 (or 90 if you're feeling greedy). You'll be able to very easily get shares through at 91 cents. You're now betting that Trump won't win Nevada. Before you were betting that Biden will win Nevada. What's the difference? There's no difference other than you can pay 2-3 cents less with the NO shares. However, let's try to find some contracts that you can buy for less than 91 cents that are still free money.

    There's this contract:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ona-or-Georgia

    You can buy NO shares for around 80-81 cents. This is free money. Though you may want to be a little more greedy and wait for it to spike again and try to buy it for like 75 cents. But we can still find some better priced contracts (that require a little more work).

    Let's take a look at this contract:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

    You can actually buy Biden to win GA for less than 80 cents here. Here's how you do it: Buy NO shares in every bracket that shows Trump winning. So let's look at the second to last bracket (Trump 7.5k - 10k). Click on "buy no" and bid 97 cents. Let's say you buy 100 shares, this will cost you $97. This will easily go through btw, no need to pay 98. Well this seems like a crappy deal to pay $97 to only make $3. But we're not done. Now go to the last bracket (Trump by 10k+). Now let's bid 89 for NO shares in this bracket. Let's say we take 100 shares again. How much will this cost us? Well, you might expect this to lock up $89, but actually this is NOT what happens. What will happen is $11 gets released to us. So now instead of having $97 locked up, we have $86 locked up and we have NO shares in two different brackets. This means if either bracket resolves to yes, we lose the $86. If they both resolve to "no" (which they will), then we make $14. We're essentially creating a parlay. This is called "linked margin", btw, and it's a very beautiful thing.

    Okay, now let's keep doing down the line. Let's bid 100 shares at 97 cents for Trump 5k-7.5k. Again, when this order goes through we'll get $3 released to us. Now we have $83 locked up. Let's go to 2.5k-5.k and bid 100 shares at 98 cents. $2 will get released to us, and now we have $81 locked up. Keep doing this for all the Trump brackets and I would even take the first 3 Biden brackets (7.5k and under). Do this for all of them and it should cost you around $75 to buy 100 NO shares in all those brackets. We're now making $25 when all those resolve to NO (actually $22.50 after rake). This is a 30% ROI for something with essentially no risk. Not bad. But it requires a little bit of work.
    Last edited by PLOL; 11-13-2020 at 10:28 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  4. #344
    Btw, I believe this is currently the BEST value (free money) market for new people. I don't believe they've hit the 5k trader cap yet. It is the cheapest way to bet on Biden winning.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ent-5150452653


    You can bet on Biden to win the election for around 75 cents by just buying NO shares in every GOP bracket (see post above for explanation). You can also take the NO shares in all the Dem brackets except for Dems 60-99. This should cost you around 70 cents, depending on how patient you are. At most it'll cost you 77 cents. Again, this is a much better value than buying YES shares in Dem 60-99, which would cost you ~84 cents, and it's exactly the same thing. Try to find a sportsbook that will still let you bet on Biden at -300. You can't, it's impossible. And yet it can still be done on PredictIt.


    Note: Sometimes it makes sense to just hit whatever the asking price is, instead of setting your own bid. Like look at GOP 100-149. There's 21k shares asking 98 cents. Now look at 97 cents, there's 42k shares bidding 97 cents. So you can go in and bid 97 cents and stand behind those 42k shares and wait to get filled. Or you can just pay the 98 cents and get those shares right away. Generally speaking, I like to set my own bid and pay a penny or two less than the ask. In that bracket, I'm probably just going to pay 98 cents. I don't want those 21k 98cent shares to get filled and then have the price to move to 99. This is more likely to happen than the price moving to 96cents (because 42k shares at 97 would have to get bought out before it can move to 96). You can look at the order book to try and guess where the price is likely to move, and how much you should pay. If you're a newbie, this takes a little getting used to but you'll get the hang of it pretty quickly. It'll probably involve you making a few mistakes first. That's OK. Overpaying by a few cents here and there isn't the end of the world. If you're buying a bunch of NO shares, you're almost always still getting a better price than buying YES shares in a single bracket, even if you overpaid by a penny in a few brackets.
    Last edited by PLOL; 11-13-2020 at 10:43 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  5. #345
    The Trump legal team has essentially conceded Arizona btw. There will be no recount (which isn't legally possible) or ballot challenges (which is pragmatically dubious).

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/trum...r&par=sharebar

    Also, Biden is going to win PA by more than 1%. DEAL WITH IT.

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    Last edited by PLOL; 11-13-2020 at 12:01 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  6. #346
    Onestep informed me that he was buying YES shares in the "Will Wisconsin have a recount" market based on some article he found from February (lol). In response, and after careful contemplation, I will be taking the NO side in this market. We need to teach this political gambling fish another lesson.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6968
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  7. #347
    Florida:
    Florida won't even be particularly close this year. Trump has lost the senior vote. About a billion Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria. Gillum was a trash candidate in 2018. Trump is doing better with Cubans compared to 2016, but it won't be enough. Not quite "Safe D", but heavily "Lean D"


    is this true though?

  8. #348
    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Florida:
    Florida won't even be particularly close this year. Trump has lost the senior vote. About a billion Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria. Gillum was a trash candidate in 2018. Trump is doing better with Cubans compared to 2016, but it won't be enough. Not quite "Safe D", but heavily "Lean D"


    is this true though?
    Guess it's better to bash me after a big win than a big loss. Think I got 48 of 50 states. I missed NC and FL. I even bet on Trump in IA, and Daines in MT and Graham in SC. Hispanics moved further to the right in South Florida than anticipated.

    How'd the Trump bettors do? Yikes... Shout out to OneStep and Sidedish

    Edit: Glad you enjoyed the live show btw. Enjoyed seeing your comments in the chat

     
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      dwai: obv just messing with you
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  9. #349
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Onestep informed me that he was buying YES shares in the "Will Wisconsin have a recount" market based on some article he found from February (lol). In response, and after careful contemplation, I will be taking the NO side in this market. We need to teach this political gambling fish another lesson.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6968
    We are about 48 hours away from teaching this fish a lesson. While you're at it, remember to take your free money in this market:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-in-Wisconsin

    Traders are giving trump a 17% chance of winning Wisconsin... even though there's only a 30% chance of a recount there. LOL.

    Today the Trump team has been legally conceding, withdrawing their lawsuits in WI, GA, MI, and AZ (after taking losses in pretty much every suit they've brought). But I don't think Trump will ever concede with his mouth. He'll be talking about a "rigged election" until the day he dies.
    Last edited by PLOL; 11-16-2020 at 01:16 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  10. #350
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Florida:
    Florida won't even be particularly close this year. Trump has lost the senior vote. About a billion Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria. Gillum was a trash candidate in 2018. Trump is doing better with Cubans compared to 2016, but it won't be enough. Not quite "Safe D", but heavily "Lean D"


    is this true though?
    Guess it's better to bash me after a big win than a big loss. Think I got 48 of 50 states. I missed NC and FL. I even bet on Trump in IA, and Daines in MT and Graham in SC. Hispanics moved further to the right in South Florida than anticipated.

    How'd the Trump bettors do? Yikes... Shout out to OneStep and Sidedish

    Edit: Glad you enjoyed the live show btw. Enjoyed seeing your comments in the chat


    If only Someone Was there to tell you to be careful in Florida.

     
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      PLOL: Daly is god

  11. #351
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    PLOL ,et al...

    Here you go Fellas! After the 3rd 4th email Promo from them I had to..a free 50.! FROM 10 TO 25 TO 50...SIGN UP DONT DEPOSIT, LOG IN A FEW TIMES.. lol
    So. I put a deuce(200)+50=250.. this is what I mimicked from Plop:

    Shares Traded!
    Pennsylvania presidential vote margin?
    Bought 100 in Biden by 75K to 90K
    47˘


    if I can you ca,,take a whack.


    here used the change I had left, being you gotta leave $ in there 30 days anyway...

    Shares Traded!
    Which party will win NV in 2020?
    Bought 200 in Democratic
    93˘
    Your PA vote margin at 47c is looking pretty good. It's not free money, there's actually a chance it goes up to the next bracket, but I like your chances.

    Might wanna recheck that. Biden 90-105k will be 40c in a few days. Get in early guys.
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.


    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  12. #352
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Florida:
    Florida won't even be particularly close this year. Trump has lost the senior vote. About a billion Puerto Ricans moved to Florida after Maria. Gillum was a trash candidate in 2018. Trump is doing better with Cubans compared to 2016, but it won't be enough. Not quite "Safe D", but heavily "Lean D"


    is this true though?
    Republicans rigged Florida with massive voter fraud. STOP THE STEAL!

     
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      Onestep: derailing thread
      
      PLOL: retard offset
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  13. #353
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Onestep informed me that he was buying YES shares in the "Will Wisconsin have a recount" market based on some article he found from February (lol). In response, and after careful contemplation, I will be taking the NO side in this market. We need to teach this political gambling fish another lesson.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6968
    We are about 48 hours away from teaching this fish a lesson. While you're at it, remember to take your free money in this market:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-in-Wisconsin

    Traders are giving trump a 17% chance of winning Wisconsin... even though there's only a 30% chance of a recount there. LOL.

    Today the Trump team has been legally conceding, withdrawing their lawsuits in WI, GA, MI, and AZ (after taking losses in pretty much every suit they've brought). But I don't think Trump will ever concede with his mouth. He'll be talking about a "rigged election" until the day he dies.
    Trump can have a recount in WI if he wants one, but he has to pay $7.9M for it. Up front.

    He is asking for donations to help fund it and "fight voter fraud" but the money is all going to his new PAC so he and his family can grift it.

    The most blatant ways to steal money are all perfectly legal.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  14. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Your PA vote margin at 47c is looking pretty good. It's not free money, there's actually a chance it goes up to the next bracket, but I like your chances.

    Might wanna recheck that. Biden 90-105k will be 40c in a few days. Get in early guys.
    No. You're an idiot

     
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      big dick: being an idiot is the least of his problems
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  15. #355
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post


    Might wanna recheck that. Biden 90-105k will be 40c in a few days. Get in early guys.
    No. You're an idiot

    Guys, what my grumpy friend is trying to say is don't get caught holding the bag. Pick up 500 of 90-105k. Not saying its gonna win. I'm saying that you can make 2x your money when it inflates to 40c+.
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.


    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  16. #356
    If you do the opposite of whatever onestep is doing on predictit, you will make a tremendous amount of money.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  17. #357
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    If you do the opposite of whatever onestep is doing on predictit, you will make a tremendous amount of money.

    Math doesn't lie, buddy
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.


    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post

    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

  18. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    If you do the opposite of whatever onestep is doing on predictit, you will make a tremendous amount of money.
    Actually I've made a fortune shadowing sidedish's opposite picks.

  19. #359
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onestep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    If you do the opposite of whatever onestep is doing on predictit, you will make a tremendous amount of money.

    Math doesn't lie, buddy
    It also doesn't bow to guns.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  20. #360
    NC finally settled...

    slowly but surely the money is coming in...

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