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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #321

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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

    Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol

    PLOL> Hello, I follow yr writings On Predictit,I got a acct..No deposit yet..I got a feel for the site.
    Can you tell a Simple fella how to bet the Past I regard to Betting BIDEN to win the presidency.
    I am gathering you bet .87 and if it cashes you get a Buck, yes?.
    Trump you wager .15 and get a 1.00...,is this correct?
    So many bets for World leaders.

    The Vig for Cashouts after 30 days is 5%.
    You MUST leave Action up for 30 days.No early cash out.
    Ok I got that.
    So I ask you et al.,
    If I bet 870 and Biden holds I Rcv 1000. Then Cash out and Pay 50$?
    Thank you one and all for any Help, laugh, goof,gripe,tripe,it all amuses me.. I have been freerolling Life for 2 years and am Blessed,Amen. Ty G-D. Shalom.

     
    Comments
      
      Dead Money: This guy. He’s pure love, innocence and degeneracy & he’s brilliant
    Last edited by shoeshine box; 11-10-2020 at 10:27 PM.

  2. #322
    Someday, many weeks from now, my account will be credited and Iíll have long forgotten why.

    In contrast, my account balance vanished instantly the night of Nov 3rd, 2016.

  3. #323
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post

    Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

    I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

    The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.
    Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

    The basic rationale is that there has been irrational Trump/conservatism hatred over the last 4 years, and the media/left hasn't hesitated to resort to sleazy/dishonest tactics in order to make Trump/Republicans look bad.

    Once you've lost all trust of basic institutions because they're controlled by the other side, it becomes much easier to believe that something really shady has taken place to steal Trump's victory.

    The optics of the "found votes" which switched the election late from Trump to Biden also didn't help matters.

    I make no excuses for those who are in denial about Trump's loss, but this is the unfortunate consequence of 4 years of constant rhetoric like "Trump is evil, racist, and bad, and is an existential threat to humanity unless we get him out of office!" That basically sets the tone of "anything goes" regarding getting rid of him, and people start to lose faith that their side is being treated fairly.

    I can tell you this is the logic being used by many on the right, because I've been talking to many of them privately, and trying to convince them that Trump legitimately lost, and that it's time to move on. That's what they say back to me, and I can't exactly deny that the left saw it as a moral imperative to use nearly any means to get him out of office, because that part is 100% true. I just don't think he was cheated here.
    You don't think it's at all connected to Trump claiming victory, filing numerous lawsuits, openly questioning the validity of the electoral process for months on end, deploying Rudy Giuliani to scream fraud in a dilapidated parking lot, the secretary of state saying Trump won, every GOP leader sans RINO senators taking a pass, right wing media gaslighting its consumer base, etc.?

     
    Comments
      
      adamantium:
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyde View Post
    I am a nice human being who enjoys being upbeat and affable with others

  4. #324
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

    Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol

    PLOL> Hello, I follow yr writings On Predictit,I got a acct..No deposit yet..I got a feel for the site.
    Can you tell a Simple fella how to bet the Past I regard to Betting BIDEN to win the presidency.
    I am gathering you bet .87 and if it cashes you get a Buck, yes?.
    Trump you wager .15 and get a 1.00...,is this correct?
    So many bets for World leaders.

    The Vig for Cashouts after 30 days is 5%.
    You MUST leave Action up for 30 days.No early cash out.
    Ok I got that.
    So I ask you et al.,
    If I bet 870 and Biden holds I Rcv 1000. Then Cash out and Pay 50$?
    Thank you one and all for any Help, laugh, goof,gripe,tripe,it all amuses me.. I have been freerolling Life for 2 years and am Blessed,Amen. Ty G-D. Shalom.
    Hi, no do not pay 87 cents for yes shares. When Trump's trading at 15 cents, that means you can buy "No" shares for 85 cents. But you can Biden for even less then that. If you can get into the electoral college MoV market you can buy Biden to win the presidency for like 70 cents. You do this through linked margin by just buying NO shares all the Trump brackets. See my explainer in the first post on buying no shares, and linked margin. Keep in mind there's a cap of 5k traders in any given market and some markets have hit that cap. The main market you see on the front page "who will win the election", you cannot trade in that market. But there are equivalent markets out there still that a newbie can trade in.

     
    Comments
      
      shoeshine box: TY,i shall peruse it further.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  5. #325
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Someday, many weeks from now, my account will be credited and I’ll have long forgotten why.

    In contrast, my account balance vanished instantly the night of Nov 3rd, 2016.


    You'll remember. You're smart enough to not repeat mistakes, speculatively or ideologically.

    (jk, your ideology is fiscal not moral)
    Last edited by Crowe Diddly; 11-10-2020 at 10:10 PM.

  6. #326
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post

    Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

    I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

    The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.
    Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

    The basic rationale is that there has been irrational Trump/conservatism hatred over the last 4 years, and the media/left hasn't hesitated to resort to sleazy/dishonest tactics in order to make Trump/Republicans look bad.

    Once you've lost all trust of basic institutions because they're controlled by the other side, it becomes much easier to believe that something really shady has taken place to steal Trump's victory.

    The optics of the "found votes" which switched the election late from Trump to Biden also didn't help matters.

    I make no excuses for those who are in denial about Trump's loss, but this is the unfortunate consequence of 4 years of constant rhetoric like "Trump is evil, racist, and bad, and is an existential threat to humanity unless we get him out of office!" That basically sets the tone of "anything goes" regarding getting rid of him, and people start to lose faith that their side is being treated fairly.

    I can tell you this is the logic being used by many on the right, because I've been talking to many of them privately, and trying to convince them that Trump legitimately lost, and that it's time to move on. That's what they say back to me, and I can't exactly deny that the left saw it as a moral imperative to use nearly any means to get him out of office, because that part is 100% true. I just don't think he was cheated here.
    The “believe it or not” is that you feel this way. I know you are sincere. I will be curious how your opinions mights change with the fullness of history a year or two from now.

    I think you are the product of fractured social media. I do not believe you read any books written by some of the players who left Trump’s team. Cohen’s Disloyal, for instance.

    I am not the least bit surprised Republicans fared pretty well otherwise. I’m pleased.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 11-10-2020 at 09:54 PM.

  7. #327
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

    Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol
    It went to 16 cents lol. Tomorrow I am going to be requesting a FOIA against PredictIt and will be demanding they disclose the name(s) of whoever bought at 16 cents. I will then be contacting the authorities and making sure they are placed in a 72 hour involuntary hold.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Because you care.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  8. #328
    dear PLOP,

    thank you for letting me come in and vacuum up pennies that are turning into benjis...

    warm regards,
    GBCP

    Name:  wayne.gif
Views: 137
Size:  1.08 MB

     
    Comments
      
      PLOL: members helping members

  9. #329
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Trump to win the popular vote trading at 11%. Lol. It's a market that should already be settled at 0 and people are paying 11 cents for it.
    um ok it's time to refinance the house

  10. #330
    Trump to win Pennsylvania by more than 3% went to 17 cents yesterday. Somebody's betting that there's greater than a 17% chance that Trump wins PA by MORE than 3%. At this point, being on the sidelines is inexcusable.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-Pennsylvania
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  11. #331
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Trump to win Pennsylvania by more than 3% went to 17 cents yesterday. Somebody's betting that there's greater than a 17% chance that Trump wins PA by MORE than 3%. At this point, being on the sidelines is inexcusable.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-Pennsylvania
    Can anybody even explain this specific delusion? Biden will win PA by over 1%, but somebody is betting that the final result is off by more than 4 percentage points? And they're willing to bet that outcome has a 17% chance of happening???
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  12. #332

    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post


    PLOL> Hello, I follow yr writings On Predictit,I got a acct..No deposit yet..I got a feel for the site.
    Can you tell a Simple fella how to bet the Past I regard to Betting BIDEN to win the presidency.
    I am gathering you bet .87 and if it cashes you get a Buck, yes?.
    Trump you wager .15 and get a 1.00...,is this correct?
    So many bets for World leaders.

    The Vig for Cashouts after 30 days is 5%.
    You MUST leave Action up for 30 days.No early cash out.
    Ok I got that.
    So I ask you et al.,
    If I bet 870 and Biden holds I Rcv 1000. Then Cash out and Pay 50$?
    Thank you one and all for any Help, laugh, goof,gripe,tripe,it all amuses me.. I have been freerolling Life for 2 years and am Blessed,Amen. Ty G-D. Shalom.
    Hi, no do not pay 87 cents for yes shares. When Trump's trading at 15 cents, that means you can buy "No" shares for 85 cents. But you can Biden for even less then that. If you can get into the electoral college MoV market you can buy Biden to win the presidency for like 70 cents. You do this through linked margin by just buying NO shares all the Trump brackets. See my explainer in the first post on buying no shares, and linked margin. Keep in mind there's a cap of 5k traders in any given market and some markets have hit that cap. The main market you see on the front page "who will win the election", you cannot trade in that market. But there are equivalent markets out there still that a newbie can trade in.

    TY for the in depth reply, I see it is a bit intricate for me, I got the dough but not the swing of it.seems like a mid 5 figure investment. yes? DEF re reading 1st page a few times also. ty. S>S.

  13. #333
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    For those of you who say, "My vote never counts", behold the Iowa District 2 Congressional race.

    The Republican is current ahead by 40 votes, out of about 400,000 cast.

    Yes, 40. Not 40,000, not 4,000, not 400... but 40.

    This might be the final total, too: https://www.kcrg.com/2020/11/10/two-...mes-to-an-end/

    I bought 1100 shares of this at an average of 8c each when it was a close race, but oddly everyone thought the Democrat was going to win. I wish I bought more. The only reason I stopped at 1100 (which cost less than $100 total) was because volume was low, and I got too cheap to pay for the higher priced shares, even though I also thought they were good value. I put up an offer for 9c at a large volume, but nobody bit, and then it went up the next day.

    A very similar story occurred with UT-4, where I got it for 4c, but I got even fewer shares. That one is also favoring the Republican now.

    Since 40 votes is such a LOL margin, and since errors could still be found (or straggler mail-in votes coming in), I think I might bail out of this right now. People are buying YES for 90c, so I think I'll take it, and reinvest in some of PLOP's free-money markets.

  14. #334
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Looks like I'm probably bubbling the house race though. Right now the most likely number of Democratic reps is 222. This is because of IL-14, which has turned very much in favor of the Democrat Underwood.

    As mentioned above, IA-2 looks like it will probably be a very slight R victory, and UT-4 is leaning red as well. CA-25 is a toss-up at the moment, while CA-21 is leaning red.

    CA-39 is over. The Democrat conceded already.

    So throwing $ on NO for 226-229 is pretty smart at this point, since all four IA-2, UT-4, CA-25, and CA-21 would have to lose for it to go to 226, barring some shock in some other races which technically aren't called yet. But of course, the price matters. It's probably a better use of $ to bet on the sure things PLOL posted.

  15. #335
    If you have money on PI, this should be your goal. Paying 72 cents for Biden to win Georgia, lol.



    Last edited by PLOL; 11-12-2020 at 10:38 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  16. #336
    Some new markets:
    PA vote count. Biden is leading by 54k votes right now and the remaining votes are leaning Biden. He's likely to win PA by greater than 1%. I would try to pick up NO shares in the impossible brackets. Around 70k is likely (Note: this info could become outdated)
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-Pennsylvania


    Will Trump win MI/WI/NV (this is impossible btw, but may want to wait for a bigger maga surge before buying NO shares)
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...nsin-or-Nevada

    Will there be a recount in AZ. Recounts in AZ are only done if it's within 300 votes, so this is free money but I'm not paying 87 cents for any contract right now:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...unt-in-Arizona


    There's also a great market for Druff to be in. "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court Justices at any point in 2021"? He can put his money where his mouth is and get 11 to 1 against his greatest fear. This is not happening btw:
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-point-in-2021

    There's also a bunch of markets for who will be in Biden's cabinet (or I guess Trump's cabinet if you're a conspiracy theorist)
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...etary-on-Mar-1
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...etary-on-Mar-1
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...Labor-on-Mar-1
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...neral-on-Mar-1
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...fense-on-Mar-1
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...etary-on-Mar-1
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...etary-on-Mar-1

     
    Comments
      
      Walter Sobchak: The Lord's work here folks
    Last edited by PLOL; 11-12-2020 at 11:14 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  17. #337
    My napkin PA math. Biden leads by 54k right now. If I'm understanding correctly, there's around 44k mail-in ballots left to be counted. Somebody smarter than me can do a county by county breakdown of the outstandings, but they've been breaking about 70/30 Biden. This would give Biden an additional ~17.5k lead, putting him at ~71.5k lead total in PA.

    Disclosure: I took a small shot in the 75k-90k bracket at 17 cents. 60k-75k is much more likely, but 17 cents is pretty cheap when it's likely to be towards the top of that bracket.

    Trump 15k+ is now up to 10 cents. I'd like to emphasize that this is not possible. Bet accordingly

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6969

    Edit: My bracket is surging now. I think my 70/30 guesstimate was a little low. 78.5/20.5 Biden has been the provisional average thus far. 75k-80k is probably a pretty good target. At least that's what the market is starting to price in. I'm HODL'ing
    Last edited by PLOL; 11-12-2020 at 12:49 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  18. #338
    Speedster Out of Clemson adamantium's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    My napkin PA math. Biden leads by 54k right now. If I'm understanding correctly, there's around 44k mail-in ballots left to be counted. Somebody smarter than me can do a county by county breakdown of the outstandings, but they've been breaking about 70/30 Biden. This would give Biden an additional ~17.5k lead, putting him at ~71.5k lead total in PA.

    Disclosure: I took a small shot in the 75k-90k bracket at 17 cents. 60k-75k is much more likely, but 17 cents is pretty cheap when it's likely to be towards the top of that bracket.

    Trump 15k+ is now up to 10 cents. I'd like to emphasize that this is not possible. Bet accordingly

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6969

    Edit: My bracket is surging now. I think my 70/30 guesstimate was a little low. 78.5/20.5 Biden has been the provisional average thus far. 75k-80k is probably a pretty good target. At least that's what the market is starting to price in. I'm HODL'ing
    how much did you win this election? 40K was if everything went your way?
    #joeexotic

  19. #339
    Quote Originally Posted by adamantium View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    My napkin PA math. Biden leads by 54k right now. If I'm understanding correctly, there's around 44k mail-in ballots left to be counted. Somebody smarter than me can do a county by county breakdown of the outstandings, but they've been breaking about 70/30 Biden. This would give Biden an additional ~17.5k lead, putting him at ~71.5k lead total in PA.

    Disclosure: I took a small shot in the 75k-90k bracket at 17 cents. 60k-75k is much more likely, but 17 cents is pretty cheap when it's likely to be towards the top of that bracket.

    Trump 15k+ is now up to 10 cents. I'd like to emphasize that this is not possible. Bet accordingly

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6969

    Edit: My bracket is surging now. I think my 70/30 guesstimate was a little low. 78.5/20.5 Biden has been the provisional average thus far. 75k-80k is probably a pretty good target. At least that's what the market is starting to price in. I'm HODL'ing
    how much did you win this election? 40K was if everything went your way?
    Hard to say because the election isn't over (apparently), but should be closing in on 25k.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  20. #340
    Speedster Out of Clemson adamantium's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adamantium View Post

    how much did you win this election? 40K was if everything went your way?
    Hard to say because the election isn't over (apparently), but should be closing in on 25k.
    Nice, thats like dish territory money
    #joeexotic

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