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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #301
    Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

    I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?

  2. #302
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

    I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?
    One or more of:
    1. Gamblers looking for a long shot.
    2. Wishful thinking Trump supporters.
    3. People overestimating the likelihood of success because they don't understand the situation.

    Trump will overturn the result of zero states. It won't even be close.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  3. #303
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

    I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?
    Recounts and lawsuits won't do anything. Recounts can move a couple hundred votes, at most. The lawsuits have no chance of winning, but that's not the point. The point of the lawsuits isn't to reverse the outcome of states, the purpose is to erode public confidence in elections so they are prepared to accept an electoral college coup. Faithless electors are the only shot Trump has, and it's the angle his legal team is pursuing.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  4. #304
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

    I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?
    Recounts and lawsuits won't do anything. Recounts can move a couple hundred votes, at most. The lawsuits have no chance of winning, but that's not the point. The point of the lawsuits isn't to reverse the outcome of states, the purpose is to erode public confidence in elections so they are prepared to accept an electoral college coup. Faithless electors are the only shot Trump has, and it's the angle his legal team is pursuing.
    This is also impossible.

    Every year there are one or two faithless electors who cast a protest vote for someone other than their pledged candidate. They do this because they know the outcome and they know their protest vote changes nothing. This is why one Trump elector voted for Kasich and 2-3 Hillary electors voted for a Native American political activist in 2016.

    Electors are not just random people who are waiting for the state to tell them "go vote for Trump" or "go vote for Biden" and then you have to hope they cast their vote as instructed. When you cast a vote for Biden, Trump or whoever, what you are really voting for is a slate of electors that has been chosen ahead of time. Each party chooses a slate of electors. These are people who are involved in their parties and are honored by the party by being chosen as an elector, and they can't wait to go cast their vote for their preferred candidate. So the notion that 37 or more of them will be pledged for Biden but will change their votes to Trump is ludicrous. It cannot happen.

    Trump supporters have also been pushing an idea for the state legislatures to vote and award their electoral votes to Trump instead of Biden. Also not possible. The Supreme Court has already ruled that once the state gives its voters the power to determine the state's electors, they can't substitute their own preference. I suppose the Supreme Court could reverse itself. But even if it does, again, you're looking at 4-5 states Trump would have to convince to do this. No state legislature is going to tell its voters "fuck you, you voted for Biden but we're giving our electoral votes to Trump." These state legislators by and large believe in democracy and in voting and they're not going to toss aside the system that we've had for 240 years just to elect who they want. They have to face their own voters every few years, why would they commit political suicide for Trump? Many of them are insulted that Trump is telling them they don't know how to run an election. Most of the states they're targeting are run by Republicans and Trump is saying they fucked it all up. They didn't. The leader of Pennsylvania's senate has already specifically announced that the state legislature will NOT overturn its own voters, ain't no way ain't no how.

    Every state recounts if it's close enough. Trump is entitled to ask for recounts in other states too, but he has to pay for them. So let them recount. The margins are big enough it's not going to change the result in even one state, and certainly not in 4-5 states.

    Trump's only hope is that the Supreme Court goes rogue and invents some crazy reason why hundreds of thousands of legally cast votes have to be invalidated. Trump has no evidence and no legal backing for such a request. The Supreme Court is not going to commit suicide either. It could actually come before the Court a few times. There could be some procedural matters litigated before the larger legal questions. But when it comes down to the larger legal questions, depending on the exact question before the Supreme Court, I expect he will lose 9-0, and 7-2 at a minimum.

    tl;dr: Trump has zero chance, and anyone who understands the system can easily see this.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  5. #305
    If you're an elector, how much would it take for you to vote against the popular vote winner? Because I'd do it for like $50k. Just saying.

     
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  6. #306
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    If you're an elector, how much would it take for you to vote against the popular vote winner? Because I'd do it for like $50k. Just saying.
    This would come out before the votes are cast and would guarantee him a trip to the iron bar hotel.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  7. #307
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    If you're an elector, how much would it take for you to vote against the popular vote winner? Because I'd do it for like $50k. Just saying.
    This would come out before the votes are cast and would guarantee him a trip to the iron bar hotel.
    I won't tell if you don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  8. #308
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    house dems 226-229 is sweetening...trading at 26...

    is this even possible?
    The short answer is "probably not".

    Dems have 218 locked up now, so you can fire "NO" everything 217 and fewer very safely, as well as YES on "Will Democrats control the House" (or the corresponding YES/NO on the other side).

    Dems are highly ikely to get CA-34, which will make 219.

    They are also very likely to get NY-18 and NY-19, making 221.

    Democrats are now leading in IL-14 (looked good for awhile for GOP, now looking like it will stay blue).

    Republicans are leading in the following:
    CA-39
    CA-21
    NY-2
    NY-3
    NY-11
    NY-22
    NY-24

    The five NY should hold for the GOP, and the two CA ones are probably also winning, though CA-21 flipped late in 2018, so that one is tricky.

    It's a virtual tie in IA-2 (separated by like 30 votes right now) and UT-4. Those can go either way.

    CA-25's lead has gone back and forth, but at the moment, the Democrat is up by 1300. Still a number of votes still to be counted though.

    In short, the Dems could get 226 if they score 5 of the following six, which would have to be CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, IL-14, and UT-4, and IA-2. Since CA-39 is probably winning for the GOP, they'd have to sweep the rest, which isn't all that likely, but I wouldn't bet the farm against it.

    My big underdog bet on 221 or fewer is looking like it's pretty unlikely to hit, since I would have to get back IL-14 and also win all the CA races, along with UT-4 and IA-2. Ugh.

     
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  9. #309
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Can someone explain how Trump is 15 c?

    I could see him forcing a recount and maybe gaining one state back, but multiple? Isn't that a 1/1000 or greater shot?
    Iíd like to put on my game face here and pull together a scenario where Itís Biden bettors who wanted to sell out early so they werenít holding the bag on a predictit fail.... but I got nothing.

  10. #310
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

    Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.

    Anyway, between that and people scared of Trump somehow stealing the election, there's enough buyers and sellers to push the Trump price this high, which is ludicrous.

    I bought some Biden positions for about 89-90c, and I'm going to wait it out until it's settled, and pick up the free money.

  11. #311
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

    Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.

    Anyway, between that and people scared of Trump somehow stealing the election, there's enough buyers and sellers to push the Trump price this high, which is ludicrous.

    I bought some Biden positions for about 89-90c, and I'm going to wait it out until it's settled, and pick up the free money.
    You live in reality and so you know the score. Maybe you can convince a few people around here who are currently embarrassing themselves.
    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

  12. #312
    The mother of all MAGA markets. This one is worth depositing for.
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ona-or-Georgia
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  13. #313
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    The mother of all MAGA markets. This one is worth depositing for.
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ona-or-Georgia
    Honestly, you may want to wait until you can buy in the 60s. Maga money is relentless.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  14. #314
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

    Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.
    Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

    I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

    The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.
    Last edited by Rick Sanchez; 11-10-2020 at 08:20 PM.

  15. #315
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Trump is 15c because there are deluded Trump supporters who seriously believe that the legal challenges will "cancel the fraudulent votes" and rightfully hand the victory to Trump.

    Despite being an outspoken conservative here, notice that I haven't engaged in such rhetoric. While I think some fraud probably did occur, I highly doubt it was prevalent enough to make a difference in any of these states. The margins of Biden simply weren't small enough. If there were two key states decided by 500 votes, I'd be singing a different tune. But there aren't.
    Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

    I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

    The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.
    Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

    The basic rationale is that there has been irrational Trump/conservatism hatred over the last 4 years, and the media/left hasn't hesitated to resort to sleazy/dishonest tactics in order to make Trump/Republicans look bad.

    Once you've lost all trust of basic institutions because they're controlled by the other side, it becomes much easier to believe that something really shady has taken place to steal Trump's victory.

    The optics of the "found votes" which switched the election late from Trump to Biden also didn't help matters.

    I make no excuses for those who are in denial about Trump's loss, but this is the unfortunate consequence of 4 years of constant rhetoric like "Trump is evil, racist, and bad, and is an existential threat to humanity unless we get him out of office!" That basically sets the tone of "anything goes" regarding getting rid of him, and people start to lose faith that their side is being treated fairly.

    I can tell you this is the logic being used by many on the right, because I've been talking to many of them privately, and trying to convince them that Trump legitimately lost, and that it's time to move on. That's what they say back to me, and I can't exactly deny that the left saw it as a moral imperative to use nearly any means to get him out of office, because that part is 100% true. I just don't think he was cheated here.

  16. #316
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez View Post

    Most Republicans recognize this I have to think. It seems that the party has fractured into traditional conservatives and Team Retard. The latter seems like a bigger group than it really is, because the party is being held hostage so you see a lot of otherwise sensible Republicans saying shit they don't really believe.

    I mentioned in another thread the ridiculous joint statement by senators Loeffler and Perdue throwing Georgia's Secretary of State under the bus. There's a good example of politicians being pressured to proclaim major fraud when they know there obviously isn't any.

    The same is true of media pundits. Tucker Carlson is a notable exception, but he's good about mixing in some anti-liberal hysteria to balance out the reasonable points.
    Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.

    The basic rationale is that there has been irrational Trump/conservatism hatred over the last 4 years, and the media/left hasn't hesitated to resort to sleazy/dishonest tactics in order to make Trump/Republicans look bad.

    Once you've lost all trust of basic institutions because they're controlled by the other side, it becomes much easier to believe that something really shady has taken place to steal Trump's victory.

    The optics of the "found votes" which switched the election late from Trump to Biden also didn't help matters.

    I make no excuses for those who are in denial about Trump's loss, but this is the unfortunate consequence of 4 years of constant rhetoric like "Trump is evil, racist, and bad, and is an existential threat to humanity unless we get him out of office!" That basically sets the tone of "anything goes" regarding getting rid of him, and people start to lose faith that their side is being treated fairly.

    I can tell you this is the logic being used by many on the right, because I've been talking to many of them privately, and trying to convince them that Trump legitimately lost, and that it's time to move on. That's what they say back to me, and I can't exactly deny that the left saw it as a moral imperative to use nearly any means to get him out of office, because that part is 100% true. I just don't think he was cheated here.
    Stop explaining. Just tell them they're right and they should deposit on PredictIt where they'll make a lot of money off these theories.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  17. #317
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Believe it or not, there are some reasonable conservatives who believe the election was stolen.
    How can they be reasonable when they abandon reason?

    How can it be reasonable when there is no reasonable evidence?

    For it to be reasonable, there has to be reason. When the "reason" is transparent and laughable and without any of the evidence of the thing they believe to be true, how can it be reasonable, and how can those believing it be reasonable people?

  18. #318
    In hindsight, the phrase should have been "otherwise reasonable people" IMO.

  19. #319
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

    Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol

     
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  20. #320
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

    Somebody just filled my NO shares for Trump 10K+ here for 86 cents. This is a desperate cry for help from somebody. With linked margin, I'm going to end up buying Georgia for like 75 cents lol

    Years from now a political historian is going to ring you up and interview you. What were the days like following Trump’s loss. The denial, the sorrow and the profit.

    The look on your face during the election night broadcast.

    It’s all chronicalled for posterity from beginning to end.

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