I'll start off.
Let's take CA-25 House district, an overlooked race for betting.
CA-25 is a purple district, which encompasses the southern California cities of Simi Valley (northeastern Ventura County), Santa Clarita (Newhall/Valencia/Canyon Country/Saugus/etc), and Lancaster/Palmdale (Antelope Valley).
It came to national attention when
freshman Congresswoman Katie Hill was embroiled in a weird sex scandal, which saw her accused of having romantic/sexual relationships with both a female campaign worker AND a male staffer.
Hill resigned, most likely because the relationship with the male staffer was illegal (due to a 2018 anti-sexual-harassment law), and she might have faced all kinds of legal issues if she didn't resign.
A special election was held, where Republican Mike Garcia crushed Democrat Christy Smith by something like 13 points. However, turnout was low, whereas turnout will be very high this time around. Furthermore, turnout skewed Republican in the special election, because those voters were more motivated to show up, given that it had been a Democrat who resigned in disgrace.
The two are now facing each other months later, in a second election -- this time with Smith challenging Garcia's bid for reelection.
Mike Garcia is actually a good candidate:
1) He's the better candidate with a good resume
2) He's Hispanic
3) The district is more red than blue, and Katie Hill was more of an anomaly who managed to overperform. Keep in mind that, before the scandal, Katie was considered a quickly rising star in the Democratic Party.
4) He's the incumbent (albeit only for a very short time).
I have spent substantial time in 2 of the 3 areas of this district (Simi Valley and Santa Clarita), and know it well.
The Democrats in these places are not your typical California coastal leftists. They're more of the working class variety, especially in Lancaster/Palmdale. These type of Democrats don't care about social justice or making over the country into something different. They simply want jobs and a better life.
Lancaster/Palmdale is over 1/4 Hispanic, so that should help Garcia against his white Democratic opponent.
There's also still some remaining bitterness in the area regarding the Katie Hill situation. Katie never apologized for her behavior, never really took responsibility for her mistakes, and has since gone on to a career of playing professional victim, complete with a movie deal (not joking).
Swing voters in this district feel duped. They voted for a charismatic, young, energetic Democrat who said all the right things, and they ended up getting a salacious sex scandal in return. While this isn't Christy Smith's fault, I have to imagine that Republicans who pulled the lever for Hill last time aren't going to do it for a Democrat this time. This is part of the reason Smith lost so badly last time.
Is this a lock? No. It mostly hinges on turnout. But look at this:
https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322687819169505280
After it looked terrible for Garcia in the early voting statistics, now Republicans actually have had more voters than Democrats in CA-25! Wow!
And you can get "DEMOCRATS NO" for slightly better than even money right now!
I only wish I saw this a few days ago, when PredictIt hadn't caught on yet, and it was trading at 36c. Right now it's at 48c (I got it at 47c).
I still think it's excellent value. Garcia is going to crush this if more Republicans are showing up to the polls in CA-25, which looks likely.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-25th-district
You're welcome.