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Thread: *** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

  1. #181
    Here's a cheat sheet for how quickly you can expect results in every state, and in which direction the initial count will be skewed. For instance, Florida will likely show Biden with a large lead, even if he loses the state or wins it by a narrow margin.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  2. #182
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Here's a cheat sheet for how quickly you can expect results in every state, and in which direction the initial count will be skewed. For instance, Florida will likely show Biden with a large lead, even if he loses the state or wins it by a narrow margin.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
    I'm surprised you aren't taking this info and punishing sportsbooks or people on predict it who are reading into early results.

    Say if Florida shows huge Biden early on, buy some Trump and sell for a profit at some point?

  3. #183
    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Here's a cheat sheet for how quickly you can expect results in every state, and in which direction the initial count will be skewed. For instance, Florida will likely show Biden with a large lead, even if he loses the state or wins it by a narrow margin.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
    I'm surprised you aren't taking this info and punishing sportsbooks or people on predict it who are reading into early results.

    Say if Florida shows huge Biden early on, buy some Trump and sell for a profit at some point?
    I expect sportsbooks to take their lines offline before the polls close. Dunno if any do live betting.

    This is a good idea in theory, and it would've worked in 2016. However, I think this info is much more public this time around so people may not rush to buy Biden if they see him up in Florida and North Carolina initially. However, if they do, it would be a good time to sell Biden or buy Trump. But also that assumes the site will be functional.

    Also, PSA, PredictIt will go offline for "maintenance" between 4am and 5am on November 4th. This is a huge fail on their part. In 2016 the race got called at 2:29am. Very possible the race gets called while the site is down for maintenance this year.


    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  4. #184
    I made my greatest bet again Brandon Mifsud. He bet me that somebody other than Trump or Biden will win.... at even odds. If either Trump or Biden wins, I win the bet. And he made this bet like a month ago. Free $100 lol (and he sent first).

    Now he's trying to give me +115 that I can't predict every state on PredictIt that's trading at 89c+. Dunno what true odds are, but pretty sure I'm a pretty big favorite. Have to nail this map exactly right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  5. #185
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I made my greatest bet again Brandon Mifsud. He bet me that somebody other than Trump or Biden will win.... at even odds. If either Trump or Biden wins, I win the bet. And he made this bet like a month ago. Free $100 lol (and he sent first).

    Now he's trying to give me +115 that I can't predict every state on PredictIt that's trading at 89c+. Dunno what true odds are, but pretty sure I'm a pretty big favorite. Have to nail this map exactly right.

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    My jaw would hit the floor if any of these are wrong.

  6. #186
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    But I don't think he is


    That's my point


    If Biden loses the popular vote Then CA would have to play a pivotal role in him doing so.


    Personally I never lay huge odds on any bet but that's just me . I'd rather find a +ev bet where I'm the one with the large payday if the unexpected happens

    disclaimer- I'm a professional poker player and a decent gambler but not a professional sports bettor
    The chance of him winning the popular vote is high, but not as high as winning CA, which is a lock. It's greater than 99% that he wins California.

    This is a weird election for many reasons. Turnout will likely be a lot higher. You'd think the turnout would favor Biden, but it's not certain. It's possible that this "silent majority" really exists, and they'll show up for Trump. It's much more likely Biden wins the popular vote, yes, but it's not the same as CA, where Biden is so far ahead that he basically can't lose.
    I know it's not the same but laying 100-1 and 8-1 are def not the same

  7. #187
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    I made my greatest bet again Brandon Mifsud. He bet me that somebody other than Trump or Biden will win.... at even odds. If either Trump or Biden wins, I win the bet. And he made this bet like a month ago. Free $100 lol (and he sent first).

    Now he's trying to give me +115 that I can't predict every state on PredictIt that's trading at 89c+. Dunno what true odds are, but pretty sure I'm a pretty big favorite. Have to nail this map exactly right.

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    wow u would know that scammer

  8. #188
    good for u tho, the only bets you'll win so u can send me $250

  9. #189
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    Walter, the now relentless troll:

    From 2012: Having partisans run elections is insane. Having hundreds of different rules and procedures is insane

  10. #190
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    That +115 odds on every state trading 89%+ is excellent.

    Tell the guy I'll take any action on this that you don't want.

  11. #191
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    LETS GO TRUMP

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  12. #192
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I think a lot of hidden value exists in Congressional and Senate races if you know what you're doing.

    For example, I saw value in Kysrten Sinema (Krypt's favorite bisexual politician) in 2018, and made some $ there.

    PLOL (or anyone else), thoughts?

    I wish I jumped on Joni Ernst when I meant to do so, but I forgot.

    BTW Predictit is super slow tonight, as usual when there's high traffic. Tomorrow it should be a disaster.

  13. #193
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I'll start off.

    Let's take CA-25 House district, an overlooked race for betting.

    CA-25 is a purple district, which encompasses the southern California cities of Simi Valley (northeastern Ventura County), Santa Clarita (Newhall/Valencia/Canyon Country/Saugus/etc), and Lancaster/Palmdale (Antelope Valley).

    It came to national attention when freshman Congresswoman Katie Hill was embroiled in a weird sex scandal, which saw her accused of having romantic/sexual relationships with both a female campaign worker AND a male staffer.

    Hill resigned, most likely because the relationship with the male staffer was illegal (due to a 2018 anti-sexual-harassment law), and she might have faced all kinds of legal issues if she didn't resign.

    A special election was held, where Republican Mike Garcia crushed Democrat Christy Smith by something like 13 points. However, turnout was low, whereas turnout will be very high this time around. Furthermore, turnout skewed Republican in the special election, because those voters were more motivated to show up, given that it had been a Democrat who resigned in disgrace.

    The two are now facing each other months later, in a second election -- this time with Smith challenging Garcia's bid for reelection.

    Mike Garcia is actually a good candidate:

    1) He's the better candidate with a good resume

    2) He's Hispanic

    3) The district is more red than blue, and Katie Hill was more of an anomaly who managed to overperform. Keep in mind that, before the scandal, Katie was considered a quickly rising star in the Democratic Party.

    4) He's the incumbent (albeit only for a very short time).

    I have spent substantial time in 2 of the 3 areas of this district (Simi Valley and Santa Clarita), and know it well.

    The Democrats in these places are not your typical California coastal leftists. They're more of the working class variety, especially in Lancaster/Palmdale. These type of Democrats don't care about social justice or making over the country into something different. They simply want jobs and a better life.

    Lancaster/Palmdale is over 1/4 Hispanic, so that should help Garcia against his white Democratic opponent.

    There's also still some remaining bitterness in the area regarding the Katie Hill situation. Katie never apologized for her behavior, never really took responsibility for her mistakes, and has since gone on to a career of playing professional victim, complete with a movie deal (not joking).

    Swing voters in this district feel duped. They voted for a charismatic, young, energetic Democrat who said all the right things, and they ended up getting a salacious sex scandal in return. While this isn't Christy Smith's fault, I have to imagine that Republicans who pulled the lever for Hill last time aren't going to do it for a Democrat this time. This is part of the reason Smith lost so badly last time.

    Is this a lock? No. It mostly hinges on turnout. But look at this:

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1322687819169505280


    After it looked terrible for Garcia in the early voting statistics, now Republicans actually have had more voters than Democrats in CA-25! Wow!

    And you can get "DEMOCRATS NO" for slightly better than even money right now!

    I only wish I saw this a few days ago, when PredictIt hadn't caught on yet, and it was trading at 36c. Right now it's at 48c (I got it at 47c).

    I still think it's excellent value. Garcia is going to crush this if more Republicans are showing up to the polls in CA-25, which looks likely.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-25th-district


    You're welcome.

  14. #194
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Next, let's look at Montana Senate.

    It's a tale of two Steves -- Daines (R) and Bullock (D).

    Of note is the latest poll by Change Research, which only has a C- rating on 538, but part of the criticism stems from it leaning too much Dem. However, despite that lean, their latest poll shows Daines up 4.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/montana/

    Additionally, Trump is expected to carry Montana fairly easily (if you don't believe it, you can get better than 10:1 on Predictit!) This speaks well for Daines' edge, as he isn't likely to lose due to an anti-Trump voting surge.

    I got BULLOCK NO at 63c, which is -170. I don't love laying that price, but I really don't see Daines losing here. You can get him right now at 64c.

  15. #195
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    daines is -255 @ bookmaker

  16. #196
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Next, let's look at Montana Senate.

    It's a tale of two Steves -- Daines (R) and Bullock (D).

    Of note is the latest poll by Change Research, which only has a C- rating on 538, but part of the criticism stems from it leaning too much Dem. However, despite that lean, their latest poll shows Daines up 4.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/montana/

    Additionally, Trump is expected to carry Montana fairly easily (if you don't believe it, you can get better than 10:1 on Predictit!) This speaks well for Daines' edge, as he isn't likely to lose due to an anti-Trump voting surge.

    I got BULLOCK NO at 63c, which is -170. I don't love laying that price, but I really don't see Daines losing here. You can get him right now at 64c.
    I'm not too active in the senate now, I don't see much screaming value there anymore. I think Republicans were generally undervalued there previously, but the market seems to have mostly corrected. I sold off my Daines shares for 69 cents. Holding my Lindsey shares until expiration.

    I see Dems just jumped to 57 cents in Georgia "senate special". I'd look in to "no" shares there. If Biden wins the general there will probably be some Democratic laziness in the offseason and I would expect the turnout to favor Republicans. However, I haven't looked in to this race much as I'm not trading it, but that's my hunch.

    Still just so much value in maxing Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota.
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  17. #197
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I don't know about the value in MN anymore. Even Biden wasn't confident enough to skip it. It's 74c for NO on Biden now, so that's really not returning much.

    The 67c NO on Trump in MI looks better.

     
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      Onestep: Took both

  18. #198
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Actually the 67c Trump NO in WI is probably the best of the 3. Even the Republican leaning polls show him losing there.

  19. #199
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'll start off.

    Let's take CA-25 House district, an overlooked race for betting.

    CA-25 is a purple district, which encompasses the southern California cities of Simi Valley (northeastern Ventura County), Santa Clarita (Newhall/Valencia/Canyon Country/Saugus/etc), and Lancaster/Palmdale (Antelope Valley).

    It came to national attention when freshman Congresswoman Katie Hill was embroiled in a weird sex scandal, which saw her accused of having romantic/sexual relationships with both a female campaign worker AND a male staffer.

    Hill resigned, most likely because the relationship with the male staffer was illegal (due to a 2018 anti-sexual-harassment law), and she might have faced all kinds of legal issues if she didn't resign.

    A special election was held, where Republican Mike Garcia crushed Democrat Christy Smith by something like 13 points. However, turnout was low, whereas turnout will be very high this time around. Furthermore, turnout skewed Republican in the special election, because those voters were more motivated to show up, given that it had been a Democrat who resigned in disgrace.

    The two are now facing each other months later, in a second election -- this time with Smith challenging Garcia's bid for reelection.

    Mike Garcia is actually a good candidate:

    1) He's the better candidate with a good resume

    2) He's Hispanic

    3) The district is more red than blue, and Katie Hill was more of an anomaly who managed to overperform. Keep in mind that, before the scandal, Katie was considered a quickly rising star in the Democratic Party.

    4) He's the incumbent (albeit only for a very short time).

    I have spent substantial time in 2 of the 3 areas of this district (Simi Valley and Santa Clarita), and know it well.

    The Democrats in these places are not your typical California coastal leftists. They're more of the working class variety, especially in Lancaster/Palmdale. These type of Democrats don't care about social justice or making over the country into something different. They simply want jobs and a better life.

    Lancaster/Palmdale is over 1/4 Hispanic, so that should help Garcia against his white Democratic opponent.

    There's also still some remaining bitterness in the area regarding the Katie Hill situation. Katie never apologized for her behavior, never really took responsibility for her mistakes, and has since gone on to a career of playing professional victim, complete with a movie deal (not joking).

    Swing voters in this district feel duped. They voted for a charismatic, young, energetic Democrat who said all the right things, and they ended up getting a salacious sex scandal in return. While this isn't Christy Smith's fault, I have to imagine that Republicans who pulled the lever for Hill last time aren't going to do it for a Democrat this time. This is part of the reason Smith lost so badly last time.

    Is this a lock? No. It mostly hinges on turnout. But look at this:

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1322687819169505280


    After it looked terrible for Garcia in the early voting statistics, now Republicans actually have had more voters than Democrats in CA-25! Wow!

    And you can get "DEMOCRATS NO" for slightly better than even money right now!

    I only wish I saw this a few days ago, when PredictIt hadn't caught on yet, and it was trading at 36c. Right now it's at 48c (I got it at 47c).

    I still think it's excellent value. Garcia is going to crush this if more Republicans are showing up to the polls in CA-25, which looks likely.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-25th-district


    You're welcome.

    I read up on that Garcia race. HeÂ’s a legit candidate. There isnÂ’t anything wrong with the Dem candidate either, as far as she doesnÂ’t seem extremist or a nutbar from what I read. Came up through more traditional political channels. I actually had exactly him in mind as the template of the type of candidate the GOP will have to run in the future when I look at somewhere like Texas and the changing demographics of the southwest.

    I have no idea why when I lose a post I get the crazy typo when I sign back in and hit submit.

  20. #200
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Christy Smith isn't a bad candidate. She's just not as good as the Republican, and they're still bitter over there about what happened with Katie Hill.

    The fact that Republican turnout has already passed Democratic turnout in that district is a really good sign for Garcia.

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