Originally Posted by Dan Druff
He probably did well because he hammered the northern states. I know he lost Florida, but other than that I think he's going to win most of the other bets.
He probably did well because he hammered the northern states. I know he lost Florida, but other than that I think he's going to win most of the other bets.
PLOP, dont want to say anything yet to mush your bets...
want to give you a hearty thanks for cluing me into this predicit shit...ended up with way more on this shitshow than i ever expected, but looks to be a nice profitable night..
What ever happened to GambleBot? I know he hit a rough patch but that was year's ago.
I ran into Gamblebot on a Facebook group recently.
Anyway, I placed some overnight bets related to the House, so we shall see if I lit my money on fire.
i hope he's still banging hotties and his penis is chafed...What ever happened to GambleBot? I know he hit a rough patch but that was year's ago.
Some people probably cleaned up on the early buyout option sites cashing out and getting back in on the other side with the crazy movements that happened.
I'd be interested to know how much total live action got put into play across all these online platforms when it's finally considered "settled".
Id be surprised if it happened on predictit...that site was fucking AIDS all night...
Even though I voted for Trump in 2016 I was destroyed live wagering Hillary. That did not deter me last night.
I had a couple preflop bets on Biden and then I started live wagering Biden. It got out of control but value is value. Anyone familiar with Betonline will recognize this. I placed 20 bets by the end of the night.
A few of my favorites. Like pictures of my kids frankly. So proud. So sick.
I even saw +300 Biden but I pushed myself away from the table.
For a brief period around 11pm, I believe, I saw Trump -115. I came so close to hedging but was curious if Trump would become a dog. Then it rose and rose to Trump -200 by the time I went to bed. I was married to Biden.
I wake up and I see +375 Trump. Yes, I hedged.
Nothing I saw last night made any sense. I was whipping thru the channels and nothing I saw correlated to the crazy swings live. I am still mystified what was driving the market. I somewhat believe with predicitit down people were hedging with the books.
Someone will offer an explanation someday and it will be palm to forehead. I suspect that at the root of things was the fact that political wagering just became very very public. Very trendy.
Betonline has removed all Political props except Melania divorcing Trump.
If my wife knew what I was up to she might have followed suit
Nah some crypto sites good luck beating the vig and dealing with the refresh headaches on predictit.Id be surprised if it happened on predictit...that site was fucking AIDS all night...
Even though I voted for Trump in 2016 I was destroyed live wagering Hillary. That did not deter me last night.
I had a couple preflop bets on Biden and then I started live wagering Biden. It got out of control but value is value. Anyone familiar with Betonline will recognize this. I placed 20 bets by the end of the night.
A few of my favorites. Like pictures of my kids frankly. So proud. So sick.
I even saw +300 Biden but I pushed myself away from the table.
For a brief period around 11pm, I believe, I saw Trump -115. I came so close to hedging but was curious if Trump would become a dog. Then it rose and rose to Trump -200 by the time I went to bed. I was married to Biden.
I wake up and I see +375 Trump. Yes, I hedged.
Nothing I saw last night made any sense. I was whipping thru the channels and nothing I saw correlated to the crazy swings live. I am still mystified what was driving the market. I somewhat believe with predicitit down people were hedging with the books.
Someone will offer an explanation someday and it will be palm to forehead. I suspect that at the root of things was the fact that political wagering just became very very public. Very trendy.
Definitely a surreal experience for me as well. At one point I’m looking at betting markets telling me Wi/Mi/Pa were a lost cause all -300 for trump. I had said on the panel we were “one stroke until midnight” and the market tells me this is over, 90% Trump..... which I stand by. What I didn’t understand at that time was how wildly inefficient the market was last night. That didn’t become clear until.....
If you listened to the panel broadcast at 2AM we did a wrap up of where we are at and I said (this isn’t verbatim “I really don’t understand the market right now.... Trump is -200 and it’s wildly known that there are votes to be counted in MI and WI that will make Biden the winner.... how is this not even ot Biden the favorite.... I don’t understand”.
Sidedish on the other hand...He probably did well because he hammered the northern states. I know he lost Florida, but other than that I think he's going to win most of the other bets.
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I had about 5 screens going. I’m following everyone. from Harolobob to Chris Wallace.
I did catch you, Daly, on Plop’s show. There was more politics than wagering but I was riveted to what you had to say. We differed on our leans but you have an excellent head on your shoulders. You spoke very very well and I’d be a fool not to listen.
PLOL was very quiet. His bets are his business and I was feeling pretty sick too. I couldn’t believe Trump was about take my money twice. For me, wagering was the point not alt right hawt takes so I was in and out.
I still really don’t know where Plop’s at. Predictit didn’t turn out to be a reliable & liquid market. That had to be nauseating. Thank god I never got involved. I would never touch them after last night.
Lol, Nate Silver. I have 538 hate posts from way back. Prolly dating from 2016.
Even though I voted for Trump in 2016 I was destroyed live wagering Hillary. That did not deter me last night.
I had a couple preflop bets on Biden and then I started live wagering Biden. It got out of control but value is value. Anyone familiar with Betonline will recognize this. I placed 20 bets by the end of the night.
A few of my favorites. Like pictures of my kids frankly. So proud. So sick.
I even saw +300 Biden but I pushed myself away from the table.
For a brief period around 11pm, I believe, I saw Trump -115. I came so close to hedging but was curious if Trump would become a dog. Then it rose and rose to Trump -200 by the time I went to bed. I was married to Biden.
I wake up and I see +375 Trump. Yes, I hedged.
Nothing I saw last night made any sense. I was whipping thru the channels and nothing I saw correlated to the crazy swings live. I am still mystified what was driving the market. I somewhat believe with predicitit down people were hedging with the books.
Someone will offer an explanation someday and it will be palm to forehead. I suspect that at the root of things was the fact that political wagering just became very very public. Very trendy.
Definitely a surreal experience for me as well. At one point I’m looking at betting markets telling me Wi/Mi/Pa were a lost cause all -300 for trump. I had said on the panel we were “one stroke until midnight” and the market tells me this is over, 90% Trump..... which I stand by. What I didn’t understand at that time was how wildly inefficient the market was last night. That didn’t become clear until.....
If you listened to the panel broadcast at 2AM we did a wrap up of where we are at and I said (this isn’t verbatim “I really don’t understand the market right now.... Trump is -200 and it’s wildly known that there are votes to be counted in MI and WI that will make Biden the winner.... how is this not even ot Biden the favorite.... I don’t understand”.
I think what San said earlier in the week where he compared to to Floyd-Connor was likely culprit. They assumed all kinds of risk in event of Trump win. They thought it was dumb money and ate it.
As it started to look good for Trump, an already over saturated Trump market just got worse and forced them to overcorrect and start making Trump bettors pay a giant premium. That’s only thing that makes sense. They were set to lose a ton of money and couldn’t afford to give Trump bettors a true line.
As such, they likely make a ton of money the way it played out as Trump money continued to pour in.
What are the lines right now or are they all closed?
In the end, BCR, I think you are right. The Trump exposure was huge
BetOnline said it was the biggest decision in their history. They needed Biden action. They got it.Trump or Biden? 67% of the players at BetOnline are on Trump +180.
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Agreed to the previous points about being wildly exposed to Trump - but when the market shifts like that the worst thing you can do is to give the opportunity to the 350M on trump +170 to now bet Biden +250 and cement the exposure. One thing to get middled in a spread bet in a random NFL game where at least you have juice upside if the bet doesn’t land in the middle. This was locking in a pure loss.
They didn’t do it to hedge bets as the damage was done - they did it because the market thought trump was going to win and so did they.... at the moment.
To be fair PLOP had a TON going. I had a bunch of car payments going, he had the whole Car. I wouldn’t have been saying much either.
I need to be crystal clear. I empathized and sympathized completely. I was a little distraught too.
PLOL sharing his political wagering while remaining apolitical was a gift. StarSpangledWagering was a treat. The world of predictit. He didn’t owe us anything.
Most of us are all too familiar with that sickening feeling.
Ga getting interesting. Don’t think Biden gets there, but I bet this ends up less than 20k ish by the end.
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