*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

[BCR]

How is this possible? Seriously, I'm not a big bettor. Are these people pouring money into Trump winning right now on November 26th?

It’s some combination of people being unable to get into markets, people taking .94 when it pops up rather than wait another month for their money, and people from both sides knowing that dynamic, and buying Trump when it dips knowing that any fake press conference in a rented hotel room and they’ll be able to double up on a share they can buy at .06 and sell to a true loon later on.

[PLOL]

Trump up to 42% to pardon himself. I don't have a position here, or strong opinions, but thought it was interesting.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term

[Rick Sanchez]

Trump up to 42% to pardon himself. I don't have a position here, or strong opinions, but thought it was interesting.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term

If it was worded "Will Trump be pardoned by January 19th?" this would be at 90%+ imo

[Walter Sobchak]

How is this possible? Seriously, I'm not a big bettor. Are these people pouring money into Trump winning right now on November 26th?

They're stupid.

[PLOL]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ent-5176369356

This is where the drama has been the past few days. Multiple run-ups to 80 on both sides. Watch this market if you want to see some drama. The kingmaker of this market is some 20 year old autistic twink named Eli who can singlehandedly move the market bigly. He's incredible and it's been a fun watch. We should find out tomorrow

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

how can he move the market with an $850 cap on positions?

[PLOL]

how can he move the market with an $850 cap on positions?

He's not on predictit. I mean he moves the markets based on what he tweets.
https://twitter.com/elium2

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

how can he move the market with an $850 cap on positions?

He's not on predictit. I mean he moves the markets based on what he tweets.
https://twitter.com/elium2

oh shit he gets down into the nitty gritty...well then...

[Dan Druff]

Thanks for reminding me. For whatever reason, I had bought only $200 worth of B14 NO on that one, so I loaded up the rest, at a better price (lol). Had cash sitting around so it was a no-brainer.

[PLOL]

B5 takes it down. I was a long time B4 holder. GG

And yeah, I actually got some shares filled for B14 NO at 87 cents yesterday lol

[PLOL]

You can get zero risk NO shares for about 80 cents here. Take the free 20%+ ROI.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia

[Rick Sanchez]

In today's newsletter, PredictIt basically announced that they'll be settling up on December 14th.

Markets have barely moved on this news. I guess bettors like sidedish are all-in and still holding out for a miracle?

[Sanlmar]

I never pahticipated in Predictit but this thread documenting PI’s illogical & inefficient market has been fascinating to follow. Another world to me.

Rip and run son.

[PLOL]

In light of these ongoing disputes, PredictIt currently anticipates that we will begin settling markets on individual state results in accordance with each market’s rules only after electors have cast their votes on Dec. 14, unless in our view there is a conclusive outcome before then.

This is a much better tune than their previous newsletter that made it sound like they wouldn't settle anything until January.

Here's the thing with the state markets. It's based on the winner of the /popular vote/ of that state. It's not a market for who the electors of that state will vote for.

The winner of the popular vote in Michigan for the 2020 general election for U.S. President shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.

So even if Michigan's electors all went and voted for Trump and Trump wins the state of Michigan, Biden should still win that market based on how the rules are worded.

[PLOL]

Absolute capitulation in every market on predictit right now.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1337552981319806978

[Daly]

Absolute capitulation in every market on predictit right now.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1337552981319806978

If it was “over over” before it’s “really over over over” now.

It can’t get any more “over” after Monday other than when he takes the oath and I think all bets should be settled Monday. No reason to stall any more unless there are games being played.

[Rick Sanchez]

Druff, how did your House bets work out? What kind of ROI? Looked like you were making some sharp plays.

[PLOL]

Took Kelly Loeffler at -145, $362.50 to win $250 (which was the max on my book). I think there's small value there.

Tempted to bet Ossof now if I can get a high enough +. It's very unlikely to be a split decision.

Edit: Actually there should be a market for a Dem scoop. I'd rather bet that to combine it with my Loeffler bet. Should be good odds.

[Rick Sanchez]

Here's your scoop market. Once my other bet gets graded, I'm tempted to max buy D/D

[PLOL]

Nevada went down to 86 cents today. If PI keeps their word, this is likely to resolve really soon. Incredible. 15% near instant return which you can then roll in to other markets.

And please don't tell me what the conspiracy theory is. I'm going out of my way to stay ignorant.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election