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Thread: Escape from New York 2020

  1. #81
    Giant New York rats overtaking Central Park and the UWS

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/21/new-yo...at-population/




  2. #82
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheXFactor View Post
    Giant New York rats overtaking Central Park and the UWS

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/21/new-yo...at-population/



    Oh great, the Trumps are moving back.
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  3. #83
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    As someone who knows the real estate industry well (though admittedly not the NYC industry specifically), let me explain why it's not so simple for your landlord to lower your rent.

    The biggest reason is to avoid establishing a new lower price point. If you get your rent lowered, then the word will get around to other tenants in the building, and they will also demand a reduction in rent, and pretty soon the entire building will be demanding rent reductions once their lease is up. Of course, the landlord can refuse these demands, but then these tenants will probably leave, and the ones replacing them will pay a much lower rent anyway.

    Landlords can avoid this by hoping that many tenants won't realize that rents have decreased, or won't feel strongly enough about it to actually leave if everyone is refused. It's a lot easier to get a tenant to stay at an above-market rent if everyone else in the building is paying above-market rent. In fact, some of these tenants might rationalize that perhaps they were incorrect that rents have gone down, if the landlord doesn't seem to want to budge regarding a reduction.

    But what about the new move-ins? Won't they get a lower rent? Yes, they will, but it's still different than a reduction. A new move-in isn't going to run around telling everyone what he is paying for rent. Someone getting a big reduction is much more likely to advise his neighbors (some of whom he likely befriended already) to ask for the same reduction he got.

    There's also the factor of the rents adjusting themselves back up quickly. Let's say COVID disappears in mid-2021. It's likely NYC will recover somewhat, and rents will start to go back up. Maybe they won't reach their 2019 peak, but they might start back on that upward trend. You don't want to have to deal with hitting everyone with huge increases to keep up with that, and facing a rash of spite-moveouts as a result.

    Therefore, it's to the landlord's advantage to avoid any rent reduction for existing tenants, and count on people being creatures of habit and continuing to pay the previous amount of rent. There's a general market principle across industries that people will pay tomorrow what they're paying today, and aren't necessarily expecting a discount. (The only exception lies in consumer electronics, for obvious reasons.) This is the same reason why auto insurance companies never lower your rates, but you can get lower rates by switching companies and then switching back to the original company 6 months later.


    I battled with this as a tenant in Las Vegas in the late 2000s, following the housing market crash of '08. Vegas was particularly hard-hit, and the rent for units identical to mine fell about 35% by the time my lease came back up. The office refused to lower my rent, citing all kinds of BS reasons, including claiming it was a "federal Fair Housing violation" (lol). Finally I just leveled with them. I told them that I know what my apartment is worth, and that the recent drastic reduction in price on the open market has brought in a worse-behaved and less-responsible element to the complex. "I'm a guy who has excellent credit, always pays on time, and never causes any problems", I told the manager. "I can guarantee you that I'm not going to pay a penny more than what this unit is worth on the open market. I can't force you to re-sign me at that price, but if you don't, I'll leave, you won't get any more money from the next person, and I doubt you'll like what replaces me."

    She thought about it, and said, "Umm... let me call upper management and ask." They decided to make an exception for me, and lowered my rent. I'm probably one of the few they did it for (to that extent), perhaps the only one. It helped that I knew the industry well enough to shoot down their idiotic legal excuses.

    But the resistance came for the reasons I enumerated above.


    Getting back to onestep. It is possible that the landlord feels so strongly about not lowering the rent that he'll let the place sit vacant instead, figuring that in the long run, that's the better play. And he's probably right. He might prefer to let it sit vacant until rents go back up, and then rent it at that point. He might put it back on the open market, figuring that's preferable to letting the word get around among existing tenants that rents are being lowered. As someone already mentioned, he can also use this time to do renovations. You can try to call his bluff, but he might not be bluffing.

     
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      JimmyG_415: LOL @ " and never causes any problems" .....Yeah I'm sure you'd been there 12 mos & had 0 complaints at that point in time. From the guy crying to a deli that one order of fries ruined the meal for like 6 people.

  4. #84
    Diamond mulva's Avatar
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    much better movie than real life. to be honest a remake would be good
    Quote Originally Posted by bottomset_69 View Post
    Johnny Manziel will be the 1st pick in the draft. I truly believe not only will Johnny Manziel be rookie of the year, quite possibly he will be MVP as his style will shock defensive coordinators. Manziel may only be 6 feet tall, but he has size 15 feet. And he has HUGE hands. I know some NFL scouts so I know what I am talking about.



  5. #85
    Druff- you mention some of the consumer issues, but a lot of these issues are more structural than just what landlord and tenants feel like doing.

    RE is about leverage. Landlors get loans based on cashflow. Vacancies are attributed differently than lower rent in loan papers. Landlords can't just lower rent or they face issues with their loans. A lot of these loans are based on occupancy and the landlord might not even have to pay a portion of their loan payment proportional to vacancy - it just gets added on the backend of the loan.

    In nyc, there are also a lot of rental regulations. Landlors can't just raise residential rents without any limits. This is why they are offering the "x months free" so that the actual rent stays the same. It might lure some tenants, but I really dont know who these transients are to take full advantage of these supposed deals. It's a pia to move, it is not cheap to move, and it takes money/time to find a new place when the "x month promo" expires. The result is that a lot of people will just resign at "normal rent".

    I am monitoring 1-2 bedroom listings in good areas to see if I can pick up a deal. I would love RE prices to tank. Prices are dipping a little, but I wouldn't call an old studio with high HOA listed for 600k that closed at 550k a sign of substantial discounts.

  6. #86
    To make matters worse, landlords are not keeping up with their maintance requirements. Issues are not resolving in a timely manner or at all. Doesnt really give tenants incentive to pay on time or renew their lease
    It is in my bones which sucks so can make it hard to move sometimes. Trying to spend as much time with friends and family.


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    idk how old your kid is but i know teenagers carry more viral load than anyone

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