holy shit

[sonatine]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8...0003000-v19n10


2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We’ll Really Be in Trouble
Scientist Peter Turchin's work suggests that the next state of upheaval in the US is set to hit in 2020 based on historical violence cycles.
By Jamie Clifton
Oct 30 2012

[Crowe Diddly]

guy's got some small-scale Hari Seldon shit going on here.

[BCR]

I feel like that article is five pages too short. He certainly nailed the date, but I was waiting for him to get into a detailed explanation and there’s a last paragraph about the elite and political entrepreneurship and no real explanation how he landed on 2020. Link if it you find anything further that gets into his methodology behind the generational angle and what was stated.

[sonatine]

I feel like that article is five pages too short. He certainly nailed the date, but I was waiting for him to get into a detailed explanation and there’s a last paragraph about the elite and political entrepreneurship and no real explanation how he landed on 2020. Link if it you find anything further that gets into his methodology behind the generational angle and what was stated.

my first comment to the person who sent it to me was 'i was ready for another 50 pages'.

[mulva]

wow...i wanted to piss all over this but i can't. i will have to show it to others.

[mulva]

"My theory suggests that it will be 2020 when the US hits a new peak of violence"

i don't think we're anywhere near a peak. i wonder why he wanted to cap it there?

[Sanlmar]

I feel like that article is five pages too short. He certainly nailed the date, but I was waiting for him to get into a detailed explanation and there’s a last paragraph about the elite and political entrepreneurship and no real explanation how he landed on 2020. Link if it you find anything further that gets into his methodology behind the generational angle and what was stated.

my first comment to the person who sent it to me was 'i was ready for another 50 pages'.

We call them books. Ages of Discord

http://peterturchin.com/PDF/AoD_Chapter1.pdf

He tackles economics in his way. He needs to lay his cycle over the short and long term debt cycles. Populism.

This is worthy of the other site.

[David USF]

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8...0003000-v19n10


2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We’ll Really Be in Trouble
Scientist Peter Turchin's work suggests that the next state of upheaval in the US is set to hit in 2020 based on historical violence cycles.
By Jamie Clifton
Oct 30 2012

The 1992 L.A. Riots says hi. The destruction was worse than 2020.

[Walter Sobchak]

There are a million predictions out there about what's going to happen when, mostly based on pseudoscience or even less than that. One of them is bound to be right occasionally.

It's like the black swan guy who made a fortune betting against the housing market in 2008. People are still lining up to suck his dick and he writes books full of empty crap. Do yourself a favor and put it somewhere safe, because you don't know when the next one will be.

[Wiganer]

There are a million predictions out there about what's going to happen when, mostly based on pseudoscience or even less than that. One of them is bound to be right occasionally.

It's like the black swan guy who made a fortune betting against the housing market in 2008. People are still lining up to suck his dick and he writes books full of empty crap. Do yourself a favor and put it somewhere safe, because you don't know when the next one will be.

Black Swan guy’s twitter feud with the hedge fund guy is fun though like a side story off Billions

Also, anyone revisited Kondratiev Waves recently?

[GrenadaRoger]

latest PFA Jeremiah prophesy thread

interesting start; right now 'd say it's in stage one, denial

i am going to sit this one out until bargaining sets in

[Zap_the_Fractions_Giraffe]

I UNDERSTAND YOUR CONCERNS BUT THERE'S NO REASON TO PUT THE S WORD RIGHT IN THE TITLE, I WAS BROWSING THIS FORUM WITH MY DAUGHTERS AND I DON'T WANT THEM TO END UP AS WHORES