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Thread: Blatant YouTube Baccarat Scammer Christopher Mitchell “Professional Gambler”

  1. #61
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I've been thinking about his Martingale strategy, and it's even more ridiculous than it first appears.

    He advocates starting with a bet of $100.

    If you do that and lose 6 consecutive times in a Martingale betting scheme (100+200+400+800+1600+3200), you've lost $6300!

    Losing 6 consecutive times is NOT hard to do! Even with even odds to win an individual bet, you're going to lose 6 in a row once every 64 bets placed.

    That's a lot more common than it even appears, because you're going to play a lot more than 6 hands, which tremendously increases your odds of losing 6 in a row at some point.



    These are tables of your "most likely" biggest losing streak is shown above, based upon the number of hands you play, and the odds of winning. A 50-50 odds bet would be in the 50% row.

    So let's look at 50%, since it's the closest to something like blackjack or baccarat.

    In just 50 hands, your most likely longest losing streak is indeed 6!

    In 500 hands, your most likely longest expected losing streak is 9.

    The 9 losing streak out of 500 hands doesn't sound terrible, until you realize that losing 9 in the martingale strategy with a $100 base bet would result in a $51,000 loss! Wow!!

    Looking at 1000 hands, the most likely worst streak would be 10 losers in a row, which would cost you a whopping $102,300.

    Now you see why people almost always get decimated when they try to Martingale with a base bet of $100. You need a SIX FIGURE BANKROLL just to avoid likely going bust within 1000 hands, all in attempt to win $100 at a time.

    Again, this is only listing the "most likely" streak. There is plenty of variance where you can do better or worse. This means it's not unheard of to lose 7 or 8 in a row in a span of just 50 hands. If you lose 8 in a row, that costs you $25,500 right there.

    Bottom line: He's Martingaling WAY too aggressively. Not that Martingaling is ever right, but the smaller your base bet, the more likely it is you will walk away a (small to moderate) winner.

    For example, if you are betting $5 per hand, and lost 10 in a row, it would cost you a little over $5100. That's obviously awful if you're grinding out wins $5 at a time, but if you have a decent sized roll, you can at least risk it if you just want the fun of booking these smallish wins, knowing that at some point the Martingale Devil will come for you (and that you need to have a stopping point so it doesn't become disasterous).

    But starting at $100 is just insanity, and is begging to go bust super quickly.




    So let's take a look at what likely happened at Biloxi. As JeffDime pointed out, he likely had to do that video because too many "students" saw him lose. So instead, he framed it as a learning experience, and also claimed it helped humble him after he had won so much, so quickly (lol).

    But why did he end up flat betting $5k-$10k towards the end? Because he realized he was fucked if his bad streak continued, so he stopped Martingaling and started flat betting. This is a common tactic when Martingalers either get scared or run out of money. (Laughably, in that video, instead of saying he deviated from Martingaling -- which he admitted to only later on in a subsequent video -- he claimed he lost this "non-power--of-2" amount due to his heavy tipping! LOL!!!)

    So here's what I bet happened. He probably really did bring $60k there. Where he came up with $60k, I have no idea, but he probably really had $60k on him.

    He said he lost $19k in one place and $17k in the other. So the second of the two likely went like this:

    Bet $100 - LOSE
    Bet $200 - LOSE
    Bet $400 - LOSE
    Bet $800 - LOSE
    Bet $1600 - LOSE
    Bet $3200 - LOSE
    Bet $6400 - LOSE
    At this point he was down $12,700, plus the $19k he was down from the first place. He probably realized at that point that he was down more than $30k, and that two more losses would come close to busting him. So he likely started flat betting $5k-$10k, shot off another $5k doing that, and finally quit.

    Anyway he's going to keep running into sessions like this, as will his students betting $100 base.

     
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      Tellafriend: good info; as i recall the posted table limit at the beau is $10k

  2. #62
    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
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    I sat down at a BJ table & lost the first 12 hands I played more than once just off the top of my head. No splits or double downs & started with a new shoe both times. I remember these 2 specifically because I got up & walked away mad.

    The first time it was only $5/hand so I lost $60 which was my normal buy-in at the time.

    The second time I was playing in Caesars between periods of a NHL playoff game that we were watching with friends. That one was $25/hand with no splits or double downs(I think there was 1 push) & everyone back at the sportsbook where we were watching the game were like "WTF are you doing back so soon"?

    Anybody who says the Martingale system works is full of shit, end of story.
    (•_•) ..
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  3. #63
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    Just a few quick hits here. So Christopher Mitchell posted a video last night that I will post below but it’s his most boring video yet. He is very much on his best behavior. I’m sure he has by now scene Druff’s takedown of him on Dustin’s channel & I’m guessing has been lurking around this forum & clearly has no rebuttal as of yet at least. Just to give you an idea of how boring this video is he starts by giving us 10 facts about Baccarat. Fact #7 is when there is a new shoe a player at the table cuts the cards. Then he goes on to deal out an entire 8 Deck shoe of Baccarat counting the Player wins, Banker wins and ties. It seems like something has stymied his creative process. Luckily we have a plethora of his golden oldies to choose from.

    The only part of this that is entertaining is at around the 1:45 mark he shows a Baccarat hand written scorecard as “proof” of a 25K win at the Golden Nugget in November 2019. Just like his hand written index card of the 108 casinos he was at in a year from another video Christopher Mitchell’s definition of “proof” includes stuff he wrote down. Maybe someone never taught him that it’s common knowledge that people can write both non-fiction & fiction.



    My YouTube homepage now has a few Baccarat betting strategy/systems channels pop up. I know systems have been around forever but it seems like Baccarat is very much in style right now. I’m guessing it’s because historically it’s in the Asian Pit at the casinos and although it’s been around forever alot of people are just not that familiar with it.

    This is “Built By Baccarat” and this is a middle aged white dude with a bunch of tattoos that’s basically presenting supplementing your income with Baccarat & embracing the “Baccarat Lifestyle”. Video is kind of boring because this guy is using the soft sell charging what looks like $50 bucks a month for now at least. However, he bought a baccarat table & a bunch of equipment so I think it’s safe to say he’s looking to monetize this down the line. From what I’ve seen a lot of these guys say there’s patterns in the shoe that make either Banker/Player more likely to come out at certain times. They use fancy jargon when describing these patterns to kind of spruce it up. Just kind of fascinating how many of these schemes I am seeing pop up.

    I just want to be clear I’m not making any major judgment on this guy. He is advocating a conservative approach which he claims he has used for years to make some extra money. He claims that he has found patterns after playing 1,000s of shoes. I highly doubt he is a true advantage player but I’m not comparing him to Mitchell.



    I noticed that clip didn’t have the intro so here is one that does. Again, don’t watch the whole thing it’s boring.


     
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      JSTAT: Us card counters need money management suckers to keep the baccarat tables open
    Last edited by JeffDime; 04-25-2020 at 09:37 AM.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Kevin found this recently from 2010 Twitter. Hilarious!

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/20483367918

    The URL in that 10-year-old tweet is dead, but here's an archived version. Warning: You see his dick in the article.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20150501...scott-at-colt/


    Scroll down to the comments section of the article. They're solid gold, with a bunch of gay perverts debating whether or not he's still hot at his then-age of 31.

    Dan, that twitter was old news, I caught that bitch not once, but twice swearing on bible lying about his gay porn


  5. #65
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I've been thinking about his Martingale strategy, and it's even more ridiculous than it first appears.

    He advocates starting with a bet of $100.

    If you do that and lose 6 consecutive times in a Martingale betting scheme (100+200+400+800+1600+3200), you've lost $6300!

    Losing 6 consecutive times is NOT hard to do! Even with even odds to win an individual bet, you're going to lose 6 in a row once every 64 bets placed.

    That's a lot more common than it even appears, because you're going to play a lot more than 6 hands, which tremendously increases your odds of losing 6 in a row at some point.



    These are tables of your "most likely" biggest losing streak is shown above, based upon the number of hands you play, and the odds of winning. A 50-50 odds bet would be in the 50% row.

    So let's look at 50%, since it's the closest to something like blackjack or baccarat.

    In just 50 hands, your most likely longest losing streak is indeed 6!

    In 500 hands, your most likely longest expected losing streak is 9.

    The 9 losing streak out of 500 hands doesn't sound terrible, until you realize that losing 9 in the martingale strategy with a $100 base bet would result in a $51,000 loss! Wow!!

    Looking at 1000 hands, the most likely worst streak would be 10 losers in a row, which would cost you a whopping $102,300.

    Now you see why people almost always get decimated when they try to Martingale with a base bet of $100. You need a SIX FIGURE BANKROLL just to avoid likely going bust within 1000 hands, all in attempt to win $100 at a time.

    Again, this is only listing the "most likely" streak. There is plenty of variance where you can do better or worse. This means it's not unheard of to lose 7 or 8 in a row in a span of just 50 hands. If you lose 8 in a row, that costs you $25,500 right there.

    Bottom line: He's Martingaling WAY too aggressively. Not that Martingaling is ever right, but the smaller your base bet, the more likely it is you will walk away a (small to moderate) winner.

    For example, if you are betting $5 per hand, and lost 10 in a row, it would cost you a little over $5100. That's obviously awful if you're grinding out wins $5 at a time, but if you have a decent sized roll, you can at least risk it if you just want the fun of booking these smallish wins, knowing that at some point the Martingale Devil will come for you (and that you need to have a stopping point so it doesn't become disasterous).

    But starting at $100 is just insanity, and is begging to go bust super quickly.




    So let's take a look at what likely happened at Biloxi. As JeffDime pointed out, he likely had to do that video because too many "students" saw him lose. So instead, he framed it as a learning experience, and also claimed it helped humble him after he had won so much, so quickly (lol).

    But why did he end up flat betting $5k-$10k towards the end? Because he realized he was fucked if his bad streak continued, so he stopped Martingaling and started flat betting. This is a common tactic when Martingalers either get scared or run out of money. (Laughably, in that video, instead of saying he deviated from Martingaling -- which he admitted to only later on in a subsequent video -- he claimed he lost this "non-power--of-2" amount due to his heavy tipping! LOL!!!)

    So here's what I bet happened. He probably really did bring $60k there. Where he came up with $60k, I have no idea, but he probably really had $60k on him.

    He said he lost $19k in one place and $17k in the other. So the second of the two likely went like this:

    Bet $100 - LOSE
    Bet $200 - LOSE
    Bet $400 - LOSE
    Bet $800 - LOSE
    Bet $1600 - LOSE
    Bet $3200 - LOSE
    Bet $6400 - LOSE
    At this point he was down $12,700, plus the $19k he was down from the first place. He probably realized at that point that he was down more than $30k, and that two more losses would come close to busting him. So he likely started flat betting $5k-$10k, shot off another $5k doing that, and finally quit.

    Anyway he's going to keep running into sessions like this, as will his students betting $100 base.
    This is spot on Druff. The only thing I would say is if &/or when he gets someone to fly out to Vegas for say the 50/50 deal, if that person has brought a big enough sum I’m sure he is happy to go to the high limit room and bet $100 units. In most cases he just has a few hours to make this happen. If his target is to say make $5K ($2500 each) that’s just not going to happen in a small time frame using say a $25 base. Just to make the 5K total is going to take a good while.

    So in most cases if he’s got a sucker out there I would say he’s happy to go high risk. Hell even when he busts them I’m sure a bunch of the time he’s getting credit for the play so he’s still racking up comps. Of course if someone shows up with 2K he probably will start at around a $25 dollar base. Guess it depends on the size of the “student” he reeled in.

  6. #66
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin Mc View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Kevin found this recently from 2010 Twitter. Hilarious!

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/20483367918

    The URL in that 10-year-old tweet is dead, but here's an archived version. Warning: You see his dick in the article.

    https://web.archive.org/web/20150501...scott-at-colt/


    Scroll down to the comments section of the article. They're solid gold, with a bunch of gay perverts debating whether or not he's still hot at his then-age of 31.

    Dan, that twitter was old news, I caught that bitch not once, but twice swearing on bible lying about his gay porn




    Start at 2:15




    I thought for a second he was using semantics like these other two saying never did “gay porn”. I guess you could rationalize that a masturbation film is not gay although I don’t know of many women that watch them. But then he clearly says he never did any kind of porn. That is unequivocally false.

    Being raised Catholic I can tell you there is a major flaw. You can do horrible shit but as long as you ask for forgiveness God forgives. There was no clause about knowing you are simply going to ask for forgiveness before doing the act & nothing about doing the same horrible thing over and over while continuing to ask for forgiveness. It’s a broken system. That’s part of the reason I left it once I was an adult.

    That being said you did get him dead to rights here Dustin. Like I said before we know you have been putting in a lot of work on this for a while & we are sort of catching up.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin Mc View Post


    Dan, that twitter was old news, I caught that bitch not once, but twice swearing on bible lying about his gay porn




    Start at 2:15




    I thought for a second he was using semantics like these other two saying never did “gay porn”. I guess you could rationalize that a masturbation film is not gay although I don’t know of many women that watch them. But then he clearly says he never did any kind of porn. That is unequivocally false.

    Being raised Catholic I can tell you there is a major flaw. You can do horrible shit but as long as you ask for forgiveness God forgives. There was no clause about knowing you are simply going to ask for forgiveness before doing the act & nothing about doing the same horrible thing over and over while continuing to ask for forgiveness. It’s a broken system. That’s part of the reason I left it once I was an adult.

    That being said you did get him dead to rights here Dustin. Like I said before we know you have been putting in a lot of work on this for a while & we are sort of catching up.
    He was caught twice lying on bible...... telling more lies after he was exposed getting caught first time he lied on bible..... saying he was just 18 (when he was 31) and never did any other things besides that masturbation scene...... I mean he will make deals with devil to keep his scams going......however, it wasNT first time he tried lying about doing gay porn, he hit a wall in court BIGTIME!....... Oh, I also don't like to be described as "obsessed" trying to expose him. There's a ton of people behind the scenes helping, I'm just the guy who puts their info they give, to good use

  8. #68
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin Mc View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post




    Start at 2:15




    I thought for a second he was using semantics like these other two saying never did “gay porn”. I guess you could rationalize that a masturbation film is not gay although I don’t know of many women that watch them. But then he clearly says he never did any kind of porn. That is unequivocally false.

    Being raised Catholic I can tell you there is a major flaw. You can do horrible shit but as long as you ask for forgiveness God forgives. There was no clause about knowing you are simply going to ask for forgiveness before doing the act & nothing about doing the same horrible thing over and over while continuing to ask for forgiveness. It’s a broken system. That’s part of the reason I left it once I was an adult.

    That being said you did get him dead to rights here Dustin. Like I said before we know you have been putting in a lot of work on this for a while & we are sort of catching up.
    He was caught twice lying on bible...... telling more lies after he was exposed getting caught first time he lied on bible..... saying he was just 18 (when he was 31) and never did any other things besides that masturbation scene...... I mean he will make deals with devil to keep his scams going......however, it wasNT first time he tried lying about doing gay porn, he hit a wall in court BIGTIME!....... Oh, I also don't like to be described as "obsessed" trying to expose him. There's a ton of people behind the scenes helping, I'm just the guy who puts their info they give, to good use
    I think we have the same motives & that is to expose scammers, try an educate if possible potential victims & hopefully shut them down or have some impact that will effect their ability to rip people off. If we get some entertainment value from it we’re only human & we are in the middle of a once every 100 years pandemic so I think we don’t need to be hard on ourselves right now.

    Our journeys have been different & clearly you have been directly involved in a back & forth with him for some time that no one can fully appreciate. Obviously you have stuck your neck out & with that will come criticism mostly from Christopher & his sycophants. I don’t envy that position. I don’t see anyone on this forum using anything close to words like “obsessed” or criticizing you at all. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    We have a slight disagreement on the cash. It doesn’t mean that if I disagree with you on a detail that is in anyway an attack on you. We’re adults here and there’s going to some slight differences when it comes to certain things. I understand that your position on the cash you believe in strongly. From all the video I have seen my belief is that he has both real and prop money. Frankly I’m convinced of it based on a variety of factors & a shit load of my adult life spent in casinos and living mostly in Vegas for the last decade. But that’s not an attack or a judgment I made to oppose you. We have a singular goal here. I will echo again that I very much appreciate the work you & the people assisting you have done to expose this guy.

  9. #69
    [QUOTE=JeffDime;895666]
    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin Mc View Post

    I don’t see anyone on this forum using anything close to words like “obsessed” or criticizing you at all. Correct me if I’m wrong.

    Dan said I was obsessed during his podcast in describing how I was going after CM. It wasnt appreciated at all as its the same description MM and CM says. With what I've done in community, I deserve alot more respect for a voice of a podcast to do more research about me before using words like obsessed. It took 2 1/2 years to finally take out MM, even with the keystone cops F.B.I helping. Had I not been so determined or shall I say had MM not threatened my family and I stopped, he'd still be around with 100K sub base, 5x bigger, ripping people off but worse, hurting women in process. He date raped 3 young women and put the fear of god in them that if they came forward, his ties to gangsters would make sure they dont make it to trial. Because the FBI fucked up and he fled to Mexico, this allowed him to restart a new scam while trying to terrorize my family daily. However, the second my resources got his location, he piped down. I'm also on record in 3 separate emails telling the United States Attorneys office that if I see MM near me, family or friends "I will kill him on the spot knowing a jury wont convict me using self defense. 2 weeks after MM snuck his way into the states, he held a woman against her will with gun for 2 days while beating her up and breaking her eye socket and nose. I sent her all my FBI communication so she could possibly sue the USAO or atleast expose the FBI for imcompetence.

    The point I'm making is while exposing something as simple as youtube scams, always uncovers more serious stuff. Now CM is definitely no MM, his 15 years of straight scamming has harmed so many people along the way.

    With that said, heres just a couple of videos among so many of exposing mm. I'm sure you'll be entertained

    start at 33:00 of this one https://vimeo.com/manage/293286141/general

  10. #70
    Gold JeffDime's Avatar
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    Dustin let me try to clean this up here. I’ve been listening to Druff’s podcast a few months now. It typically averages about 6 hours long each Saturday night with numerous topics. I only joined this forum last Tuesday the 14th and starting this thread was the first thing I did at around 10:30 PDT. I had watched CMs videoes & thought this may be of interest to Druff. At that point I had only seen maybe a few of your videos regarding CM but I still made sure I gave you a quick mention at the end of the post b/c I knew your background with Morgenstern.

    So just think of the context here...that means Druff along with all the other topics & all his other responsibilities he has in life had at the most 3 days or so to prepare what was going to be a 2 hour segment of an over 8 hour broadcast. He doesn’t have people doing research he’s doing all his own shit. It is a service he provides for absolutely nothing in return. He didn’t know your background and all the shit you been through. He sees that you made bunch of videos about CM but that’s all he knows and the dude is talking for 9 hours straight. That is all the context he had. So if you just try to empathize with the facts & timeline & workload he had I would say you can toss whatever was said out the window. Now he has the full context & luxury of some more time & information. Druff doesn’t sugar coat stuff so I am sure you will see he will give you his honest opinions going forward.

    If anything you could take issue with me for mentioning you without providing enough detail of your background. If I was going to mention you I should of been more thorough in my initial post to provide Druff better context. For that you have my apology.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 04-25-2020 at 06:50 PM.

  11. #71
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I'm doing a show again and will talk about Christopher again.

    Dustin/Kevin, I have a lot of respect for what you're doing. So does JeffDime. I am closely following your channel now and look forward to each new video.

  12. #72
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    Christopher Mitchell segment on tonight's show at 1:42:57 mark:

    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ometh-the-Jews

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Christopher Mitchell segment on tonight's show at 1:42:57 mark:

    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ometh-the-Jews
    I literally laughed out loud when you read the description & comments for Minute Man Solo Big Load 34 off Queen Porn Nation. I had read them earlier but something about hearing them out loud gave me the biggest laugh I have had in a while. Think we all could use a little laughter nowadays.

    I definitely learned that The Gay Community really takes their critiques of porn much more seriously. Very descriptive and alot of attention to detail. It’s clear a few of these guys were following everything he did all the way a decade back at the time to his body building days. I’m sure Christopher is not enamored with their long memories. Enlightening nonetheless. I wonder if the Minute Man Big Load Franchise is still going today. I guess they would be up to Big Load #347 by now. It would be nice if his scam dries up that he has something to fall back on.

    Thanks for another great show & segment.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 04-26-2020 at 12:21 PM.

  14. #74
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    Amazing what some casinos are willing to do to get business whenever they are able to open.

     
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      Dan Druff: Lol
    Last edited by JeffDime; 04-26-2020 at 01:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
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  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin Mc View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
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    Great Job and kudos to your research department. You are absolutely unmerciful Dustin & that is what a guy like Christopher Mitchell deserves. At this rate the only way he’s going to make money in Vegas is sitting on the strip in 110 degree weather this summer trying to make 20 bucks selling cheap water bottles for a buck to people walking by. Bravo.

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    This fucking guy. “Never Drop The Con. Die With The Lie”

    Discusses Rick Lee at 25:00.

    Rick Lee comments in YouTube thread at 36:00.

    Some real nonsense how his time is so valuable & why he charges. Also compares himself to Jason Sample which is apparently the guys name from “Built by Baccarat” that I mentioned a couple days ago at 46:00.

    Guy just keeps beating the drum it’s really incredible. This entire video has nothing to do with the title. It’s him defending himself using the same horseshit tactics as usual. People are attacking him because he’s rich & they’re jealous.

    Last edited by JeffDime; 04-26-2020 at 09:58 PM.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    This fucking guy. “Never Drop The Con. Die With The Lie”

    Discusses Rick Lee at 25:00.

    Rick Lee comments in YouTube thread at 36:00.

    Some real nonsense how his time is so valuable & why he charges 46:00.

    Guy just keeps beating the drum it’s really incredible.



  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Christopher Mitchell segment on tonight's show at 1:42:57 mark:

    https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ometh-the-Jews

    Dan, if you need some content for your next podcast, I can arrange to come on and talk about why Im doing what I'm doing, but more importantly talk about the michael morgenstern 2 1/2 year ordeal many people need to know about. This includes tell all from the FBI investigation, the idiot agent handling the case and every response received from USAO. Just let me know

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