Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
Since it looks like Chrissy is on the verge of claiming to be the sportsbetting GOAT, I should discuss how sportsbetting tout scammers operate.
Basically, they count on a few things:
1) Most customers won't keep track of the tout's record, or won't be able to find a history of their picks going back
2) They can keep throwing in longshot parlays or increasing their fictitious "units" bet per game when they get in trouble, which can get them back into the winning column if they get a little short term luck. Of course, this could also put them further in the hole, but they can just keep increasing the "units" per game until they finally hit something. It's like Martingaling with an unlimited bankroll!
3) If picks aren't posted publicly, they can give one side of a game to half the customers, and the other side to the other half. This guarantees that half their customers will be happy, and will pay them more for next week's picks.
4) If all else fails, they can hit the reset button and come back as someone else, through the magic of the internet.
Here are the only ways you can trust a sports tout:
1) Their record is 100% transparent, from start to finish, with an easily accessible history online
2) They are a verifiable real person with history in the sportsbetting community
3) Their picks aren't just taking favorites, overs, and parlays. That's the sign of a ploppy who doesn't know what he's doing. There is more often value on the underdog / under side of things, and touts typically shouldn't be pushing parlays, as that's more a sign of degeneracy and desperation. The bettor himself should decide whether he wants to parlay things or not. The tout should only be judged by the quality of each of his picks (are they winning or losing?)
4) There is an actual method to their picks which is a proven winner, rather than just some guy saying who he thinks will win.
5) They are willing to provide more exotic bets, such as partial game bets and props.
6) All bets are for "1 unit" -- never more, never less. This forces the tout to a much more honest assessment of the quality of his picks. To give you a simple example, if I make 9 picks for "1 unit", lose them all, and then make the 10th pick "10 units", and win, I'm up one unit. But I'm also 1-9 in 10 picks, which is horrible, and is basically giving 90% losers to the customer. Just because I designate the last one "10 units" out of desperation doesn't mean I'm a winning bettor if I hit it, because I'm not actually proving I'm betting 10 units on it, and this could just be fictitious in order to get out of the hole. A real tout provides winners, and lets the bettors decide how much to fire on each pick.
7) No gimmickry or outlandish claims. No "5 star LOCK picks". No "guaranteed winners". No "75% against the spread" claims. You want the tout claiming a 57% win rate against the spread (with verifiable evidence of it), not the guy claiming 75%.
If Chrissy really goes this route, I can guarantee he's going to pull a lot of the usual shady tout bullshit. He simply isn't smart enough to develop any kind of winning system in sports, which is actually quite difficult.
It's simply too hard to beat the house juice unless you really know what you're doing, and most of these touts are chumps who don't have a clue regarding how to beat sports.