Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
So I have a few questions I'm pondering regarding the flat betting strategy...
First off, WHY did he admit to a $1370 loss on "Day 13"? CM never admits to losses unless there are witnesses he's afraid will report otherwise. The only two we've seen have been:
1) The $36k loss debacle in Biloxi, witnessed by multiple people
2) The loss at Sycuan (San Diego area) where CM discovered that Kevin had some guy secretly recording him
In both cases, CM knew he couldn't claim to have won, so those were his two "loss" videos. But now we have a third. I wonder what happened. Did he think he saw someone watching him or recording him?
I doubt he just threw the loss in there to look real, because his flat betting strategy is "new", and he's trying to establish that it wins. It wouldn't make sense to say it lost near the very beginning. (As someone noted, Day 13 is misleading, because it was actually like day 3 or 4 of the flat betting strategy.)
Also, the entire flat betting thing is bizarre because it ruins the entire premise of CM's scam. The Martingale thing "works" as a scam because most people walk away with a small-to-moderate win, while a lesser number of people get hit with devastating losses. Overall moneywise it's a disaster, but the number of net winners after one day probably outnumber the net losers.
This is great for both repeat business and honest testimonials, which is what CM wants.
Flat betting accomplishes neither. His clients will lose more than 50% of the time. The devastating losses won't be nearly as common, but the net wins will be much less common.
My theory? CM is near busto. He can't afford to Martingale anymore. That requires a bankroll. He doesn't have one. He doesn't want to bring clients out to do Martingale, only to suffer the embarrassment that a "millionaire" like him can't afford to Martingale along with them at the $100 base bet level.
So now he's moved to a flat betting strategy which he CAN afford to do (at least for the moment).
Here are the signs he's low on cash:
- Desperate attempts to raise cash quickly, such as the lol Skype coaching and prepaid sessions
- Showing increasingly less evidence of any kind of real money he's using to gamble
- The odd claim of "a $2,000 bankroll" for each session, where he even has been leaving a small excess (like $630) in the car in order to prevent himself from blowing it! What happened to betting big to win big?
- The aforementioned flat betting strategy and abandoning of Martingale