Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
This might be a good time to buy low on Trump on Predictit, even if you think he will ultimately lose.
As I said before, there are various factors likely coming which can prop him back up:
1) General backlash against the riots and the "defund the police" crap, which has been rapidly irritating the swing voter types
2) V-shaped recovery which is likely coming in some form
3) Biden making a fool of himself and everyone fully realizing they'd be voting for a senile person
This might not be enough to push Trump over the top, but I think his numbers will look a LOT better going forward. That plus the fact that Presidential challengers tend to do better in the polls around the middle of an election year, only to slip as time passes and more negative things about them are exposed.
Item 1 will work against Trump not Biden. Chaos always hits the incumbent.
Item 2 isn't going to happen. The markets are back, but the markets aren't the economy. Recovery for the middle and working class won't pick up much steam until next year.
Item 3 Biden couldn't make more of a fool of himself than Trump.
Biden has been in politics for 40 years and has run for president before. There are no more skeletons in the closet, that's why Trump and his people are already making them up.
Trump can still win due to voter suppression in key states, the Electoral College and the Russians. It won't be because he will actually increase his support.