**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[Dan Druff]

rofl bidens within 3 points of trump in fucking UTAH.

Despite being Republicans, Mormons really don't like Trump. If you look at the swing between 2012 and 2016, Utah was the state where Republicans underperformed the most (by far). The Republican candidate got 73% of the vote in 2012. In 2016, Trump got... 45% of the vote. A 28 point decrease!

Somewhat skewed since Romney was the 2012 candidate, but they still really didn't want to vote for Trump. Evan McMullen got 22% of the vote in Utah in 2016.

Trump will still win Utah, but not by a huge margin.

Correct.

The reason they dislike Trump is not what you'd expect, either. His talk about building walls and banning people from certain Middle Eastern countries is what bothered them.

Why?

Because Mormons have an extreme sensitivity to anyone who is exclusionary, due to their own history of being excluded. Therefore, anyone who takes the position of, "Group X needs to be kept out of this country" pisses off the Mormons.

However, Mormons also are so overwhemingly conservative that most can't bring themselves to vote D.

[Walter Sobchak]

rofl bidens within 3 points of trump in fucking UTAH.

Despite being Republicans, Mormons really don't like Trump. If you look at the swing between 2012 and 2016, Utah was the state where Republicans underperformed the most (by far). The Republican candidate got 73% of the vote in 2012. In 2016, Trump got... 45% of the vote. A 28 point decrease!

Somewhat skewed since Romney was the 2012 candidate, but they still really didn't want to vote for Trump. Evan McMullen got 22% of the vote in Utah in 2016.

Trump will still win Utah, but not by a huge margin.

Never been a big fan of Mormons for obvious reasons, but I have to give them credit for not hypocritically abandoning their principles the way the evangelicals did to vote for the least "Christian" president ever.

[Walter Sobchak]

Can you spot what's wrong with this picture?

What do you mean by "wrong?"

If everyone who wants to vote actually votes and their votes count, Biden will win in a walk. The issue is Republican vote suppression. They already tried to steal Wisconsin by closing down all but a few polling places and still not allowing reasonable accommodation for mail-in votes. They're already trying to prevent mail-in voting in other states, cut polling hours, etc. Maybe Trump will even order the Postal Service to just stop operating before the election. They're desperate and will do anything illegal or shady to cling to power and enforce minority rule. Everything is in play.

[Walter Sobchak]

Despite being Republicans, Mormons really don't like Trump. If you look at the swing between 2012 and 2016, Utah was the state where Republicans underperformed the most (by far). The Republican candidate got 73% of the vote in 2012. In 2016, Trump got... 45% of the vote. A 28 point decrease!

Somewhat skewed since Romney was the 2012 candidate, but they still really didn't want to vote for Trump. Evan McMullen got 22% of the vote in Utah in 2016.

Trump will still win Utah, but not by a huge margin.

Correct.

The reason they dislike Trump is not what you'd expect, either. His talk about building walls and banning people from certain Middle Eastern countries is what bothered them.

Why?

Because Mormons have an extreme sensitivity to anyone who is exclusionary, due to their own history of being excluded. Therefore, anyone who takes the position of, "Group X needs to be kept out of this country" pisses off the Mormons.

However, Mormons also are so overwhemingly conservative that most can't bring themselves to vote D.

I'm not sure that's the case. Mormons have a well-known hatred for blacks and Native Americans and would be happy to see them eliminated. This is starting to change slowly. I know a Mormon guy who is not really comfortable with his church on this point, and admits that when he was younger he was all-in on it until he saw how wrong it was. He used to be a fan of Duke basketball because the team used to be overwhelmingly white, that was actually the reason he cheered for them.

[blake]

Can you spot what's wrong with this picture?

What do you mean by "wrong?"

If everyone who wants to vote actually votes and their votes count, Biden will win in a walk. The issue is Republican vote suppression. They already tried to steal Wisconsin by closing down all but a few polling places and still not allowing reasonable accommodation for mail-in votes. They're already trying to prevent mail-in voting in other states, cut polling hours, etc. Maybe Trump will even order the Postal Service to just stop operating before the election. They're desperate and will do anything illegal or shady to cling to power and enforce minority rule. Everything is in play.

i thought he meant that the fact that trump was trading at a higher price but biden had a huge electoral college advantage was the wrong part. i.e., predictit gamblers have no idea what they're doing

[Walter Sobchak]

What do you mean by "wrong?"

If everyone who wants to vote actually votes and their votes count, Biden will win in a walk. The issue is Republican vote suppression. They already tried to steal Wisconsin by closing down all but a few polling places and still not allowing reasonable accommodation for mail-in votes. They're already trying to prevent mail-in voting in other states, cut polling hours, etc. Maybe Trump will even order the Postal Service to just stop operating before the election. They're desperate and will do anything illegal or shady to cling to power and enforce minority rule. Everything is in play.

i thought he meant that the fact that trump was trading at a higher price but biden had a huge electoral college advantage was the wrong part. i.e., predictit gamblers have no idea what they're doing

Yes because Biden can truly be in the lead in all of those states but still lose the electoral college because the votes need to actually be successfully cast and counted. Without suppression and without hacking. It's not at all clear that's going to happen. So it's reasonable for Trump to be a slight favorite to win the EC overall even acknowledging Biden's lead in the swing states.

[tgull]

Wisconsin is effectively gone for Biden. It's looking pretty clear Minnesota is going to tilt right. Personally I think MI is gone for Biden as well. Arizona is still Trump country.

[blake]

Wisconsin is effectively gone for Biden. It's looking pretty clear Minnesota is going to tilt right. Personally I think MI is gone for Biden as well. Arizona is still Trump country.

Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election?

Democratic 57
Republican 43

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election


Which party will win Minnesota in the 2020 presidential election?

Democratic 75
Republican 25

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election


Which party will win Michigan in the 2020 presidential election?


Democratic 66
Republican 35

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

Which party will win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election?

Democratic 57
Republican 44

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

[blake]

you can make a killing bottomset. post your wagers when you get a chance

[tgull]

Wisconsin is effectively gone for Biden. It's looking pretty clear Minnesota is going to tilt right. Personally I think MI is gone for Biden as well. Arizona is still Trump country.

Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election?

Democratic 57
Republican 43

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election


Which party will win Minnesota in the 2020 presidential election?

Democratic 75
Republican 25

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election


Which party will win Michigan in the 2020 presidential election?


Democratic 66
Republican 35

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

Which party will win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election?

Democratic 57
Republican 44

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

RCP Average 5/27 50.4 42.4 Trump +8.0
Betfair May 27th 50 43 Trump +7
Betsson May 27th 53 41 Trump +12
Bovada May 27th 52 43 Trump +9 <-----------
Bwin May 27th 50 43 Trump +7
Smarkets May 27th 45 43 Trump +2
Unibet May 27th 51 42 Trump +9
Vbet May 27th 52 42 Trump +10

[blake]

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

[BCR]

I couldn’t figure out why Biden was hedging so much on his VP pick. Didn’t make sense to me. Pick a black lady and be done with it.

It’s amazing how you can legit pay attention and miss something as obvious as seniors bailing on him in large numbers. You look around and see every trump head still a trump head and think he’s got it in the bag, because 70 year olds aren’t on your twitter feed or facebook. They aren’t noisy. They just show the fuck up and vote.

As the numbers piled up, you thought to yourself, eventually everyone will know someone who dies. We don’t, but these old people sure do. I was reading interviews from seniors in Florida and one lady said she’d lost someone every week for the past ten.

Someone posted a cbs poll here a few weeks ago that had trump leading and the crosstabs has him ahead with w young people and underwater with seniors and I thought he had to have mixed up the data. Now every poll since has even broke harder on older people bailing on him as he was diminishing their concerns. I couldn’t figure out all the polling said over 60% thought we were opening too soon. It didn’t feel like it. Once I saw seniors voted that way 6-1 it made sense

One senior is worth 3 young people, because the older person will actually show. Plus the young people get pulled back to your side once some rapper on twitter starts pushing them back.

Makes the vp choice much harder though. These are old white people. No wonder he’s pushing back the decision further and further. He wants to see if the seniors stay with him. He can crush with same black turnout if he wins seniors, and right now he’s winning them outside the MOE rather than losing them decisively. Trump beat Hillary by over 8 points with 65+.

Too bad there isn’t some old beloved black guy out there who wouldn’t scare off the older new fans and placate the black voter. Clyburn is 79 and a bit polarizing most likely to that group.

Biden basically needs Morgan Freeman to want to be VP.

I kept hearing about Parscale and Lewandowski and all these other granular on the ground people showing up and telling Trump he’s in trouble and I couldn’t see it. Made no sense. Now I see why they’re shook.

[thesidedish]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1265670792890761222

[JeffDime]

When even Rasmussen can’t cook the books for him anymore it’s looking lights out for the Orange Man. Of course he will blame his campaign manager, the pandemic, the election being rigged etc. Good news for him is he has 2 months after the election to make a deal with Pence that if he resigns Pence will grant him a blanket Federal Pardon. Pence will get his wish for a few weeks & technically be a part of the club.

Still, it’s going to be tough to lose to a Skeleton with shiny teeth & shitty hair plugs who can’t even get one line right in a pre-recorded advertisement. A guy who has run for President since the 80’s hardly ever cracking 1 percent in the polls. With these numbers it starting to look like a blowout.

[duped_samaritan]

i thought he meant that the fact that trump was trading at a higher price but biden had a huge electoral college advantage was the wrong part. i.e., predictit gamblers have no idea what they're doing

Yes because Biden can truly be in the lead in all of those states but still lose the electoral college because the votes need to actually be successfully cast and counted. Without suppression and without hacking. It's not at all clear that's going to happen. So it's reasonable for Trump to be a slight favorite to win the EC overall even acknowledging Biden's lead in the swing states.

Obviously we don't know what the 'true' odds are. Nobody knows since it can't be proven. And if it could be, it wouldn't be on predicit.

But according to that electoral map, Biden could afford to lose Wisconsin OR Michigan OR Arizona and still win. If he lost Arizona AND Wisconsin it would be 269-269 and probably the end of America.



(Don't be triggered Trump fans - these are hypotheticals. We know the polls are wrong, predict it is worse and Biden has a 0.0% chance at winning.)

[Walter Sobchak]

Wisconsin is effectively gone for Biden. It's looking pretty clear Minnesota is going to tilt right. Personally I think MI is gone for Biden as well. Arizona is still Trump country.

Preserved for posterity

[Sam Snead]

Wisconsin is effectively gone for Biden. It's looking pretty clear Minnesota is going to tilt right. Personally I think MI is gone for Biden as well. Arizona is still Trump country.

Preserved for posterity

In Wisconsin if you vote by mail it counts as two votes but only if you're voting for a democrat - so much fraud goes on if you allow people to vote by mail. So there's no possible way president Tweety is winning Wisconsin. So myself and all my fellow tinfoiled hat liberals here don't have to leave our basements to vote in fear of covid. We can all come out as soon as the elections over.

[Walter Sobchak]

Preserved for posterity

In Wisconsin if you vote by mail it counts as two votes but only if you're voting for a democrat - so much fraud goes on if you allow people to vote by mail. So there's no possible way president Tweety is winning Wisconsin. So myself and all my fellow tinfoiled hat liberals here don't have to leave our basements to vote in fear of covid. We can all come out as soon as the elections over.

Not sure if serious but there is nearly zero evidence of voter fraud in absentee voting or anywhere else.

[JeffDime]

In Wisconsin if you vote by mail it counts as two votes but only if you're voting for a democrat - so much fraud goes on if you allow people to vote by mail. So there's no possible way president Tweety is winning Wisconsin. So myself and all my fellow tinfoiled hat liberals here don't have to leave our basements to vote in fear of covid. We can all come out as soon as the elections over.

Not sure if serious but there is nearly zero evidence of voter fraud in absentee voting or anywhere else.

There certainly has to be some fraud but impossible to quantify. At the same time we know there are methods of voter suppression with some being more blatant than others. My hope is they kind of cancel each other out but who really knows. I think Biden will win by a few touchdowns and that will make all this speculation basically irrelevant. I don’t see a scenario where Trump wins big. He would most likely have to pull an inside straight again winning by small margins in just the right places like he did in Michigan in 2016.

[splitthis]

Old people before the pandemic had someone they knew die every week. When my neighbor was alive, she went to a funeral every week or so. It’s what happens when you get old. In Florida, it’s amplified due to so many retirees. Old people die of this or that, it’s called life.

The real tragedy is what’s happening to our younger population due to drugs, and that many younger people won’t get the opportunity to be old enough to go to a funeral a week because of unhealthy lifestyle.