Originally Posted by VaughnP
Trump is going to win Ohio, and he is the favorite in Florida for several reasons according to betting odds (-190 mybookie -135 Bovada etc.) and the predictit market. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, do you think he loses the election?
i think trump will win florida and ohio but still lose, so yes.
i'm not really as confident in biden winning as i am playing with that post you quoted. i admit i wish i didn't cancel my bet with tellafriend though
won't bet cause he doesn't want to get rolled and also 5k means nothing to him
At least by you being able to post in this thread right now it confirms you are not DWAI. Sah on the other hand...
Also math is hard. 30% of the time an outcome will happen 30% of the time.
So as long as he never says someone will have a 0% chance of winning he can always claim victory. What a racket.At least by you being able to post in this thread right now it confirms you are not DWAI. Sah on the other hand...
Also math is hard. 30% of the time an outcome will happen 30% of the time.
People who opine on Ohio don’t grasp the population shift and how it has almost no correlation to PA, MI, and Wisconsin at this point when we are talking Trump.
Trump can lose it in a landslide. It can be a bellwether again depending on the candidate, but if Ohio goes blue, it’s a landslide.
If it was Ted Cruz, he’d get 30% here in the NE. These aren’t converted Republicans here, they just love Trump. Think of split. She hates a Dewine who is a lifelong fiscal conservative who balanced the budget during a pandemic. She isn’t a Republican. She is a Trumper.
Trump wins counties. Cruz would get 30% here and need to pile up votes in Columbus. NE Ohio elected Jim Trafficant by 70% margins. We are corrupt. That’s in our DNA. Mussolini would get 78% here. We love populists and Ted Cruz would just be some hillbilly Mexican to all the Italian guys I know while they love Trump like he’s Rocky Balboa.
There is no Philadelphia or Detroit in Ohio. Nothing similar as far as population distribution.
So it makes the whole state Trumps to a degree, as all the population has moved south over decades. We aren’t talking white flight to suburbs. We are talking a 3 hour move. Like if everyone from South Florida moved to Northern Florida, eventually the politics of that area would gradually convert a number of then. It was Texas and twice Georgia margins in 2016.
It’s not that red for anyone but Trump, and won’t be this time, but it doesn’t correlate to PA and Michigan. I lived in PA for 15 years. I worked for GM and was in Michigan constantly. I understand those states. Trump can book the smallest win or a big loss in those states. Trump can book a decent sized win or a small loss in Ohio in a landslide scenario.
I don’t know Wisconsin or understand it and it makes me nervous.
I’m not overly confident at all about the election. I said 65/35 last week, now I’d say 55/45 after a decent debate and a few weeks removed from his disaster week of horrible debate plus getting Covid himself after mocking it. He’d get slaughtered that week. In ten days? Early voting makes me feel a little better.
I’m a pessimist though. I saw more Biden signs in my buddies affluent Columbus suburb than Trump. Total departure from last time. Trump will win the state by probably 2-4%, not over 8%, and logic dictates that means those other 3 states he won all by under 1% will likely fall blue.
Ohio only correlates in the sense anywhere correlates. If Trump wins Georgia by 2% instead of 5, he’s likely to lose PA and Michigan also. It correlates not in some rust belt regional way, it only correlates just like any trend anywhere correlates.
If Georgia is only 2 rather than 5, that means black people are showing for Biden a little more and voting traditionally which means Philly and Detroit probably see a similar uptick. If Trump wins Florida by less than last time, it means old white people like Biden and that probably helps in Wisconsin. Everything correlates, but Ohio isn’t some barometer of the other 3. Think of it like college football. Does Ohio State seem more like an SEC program or Wisconsin? If you know the fans, they are far more similar to fans of Bama or Georgia than Michigan or Wisconsin. That’s where all the people are at in Ohio.
Last edited by BCR; 10-24-2020 at 07:48 AM.
not for nothing but i do feel like this whole election pivots on PA to an extent.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
True but I feel like there's a good chance plop would roll that bet. If it's a #Trumpslide I'm quite nervous plop will pay me $2750 cuz he would have just lost his ass on predictit, kinda want to get out tbh
won't bet cause he doesn't want to get rolled and also 5k means nothing to him
And ACB gives it to trump 5-4. Story has already been written by God or our CPU simulation programmers
honestly i cant see PA going biden either.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Lol so u getting some trump bets in then?
not with these lines. what book were you doing those parlays at?
Lol so u getting some trump bets in then?
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
ill fire on trump when his line hits around +600, to be clear. and i genuinely believe that by ill get an opportunity to do so.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
sportsbook.agnot with these lines. what book were you doing those parlays at?
True, Broward county votes will come in and he'll tank again. 17-18/1 last time?
Idk bout +600 maybe +400 I could see
i mean, the magic hour is when the early results come in, we saw this last election.
+400 ... maybe ill dip my beak. emotionally im committed to the 550 range but maybe...
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
love my guys beak
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