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Thread: **OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

  1. #6021
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    And China too, apparently: https://nypost.com/2020/10/16/hunter...source-report/

    Hunter gets around more than The Beach Boys.

    Nothing to see here, guyz.

     
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  2. #6022
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    As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

    The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

    We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

    Election night comes down to 5 States.

    The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

    Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

    Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

    We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

    Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

    MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

    WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

    Some data points to watch on election night.

    Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
    Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
    Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

     
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    Last edited by abrown83; 10-17-2020 at 05:08 AM. Reason: My map was wrong

  3. #6023
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Was watching the Dodgers on the night of the town halls so I couldn't watch either.

    I watched them both a few hours ago.

    What a bunch of biased bullshit. Savannah Guthrie was super combative with Trump the entire time, and the "citizens" asking him questions were mostly hostile and asking tough things to him.

    Biden was gladhandled by Georgie Stephanapolous, and it was mostly Democrats asking Biden friendly questions. The questions asked of Biden were mostly of the "What will you do if elected?" variety, and not anything tough regarding his positions or his past.

    Anyone who watched those two town halls and believed they were handled similarly is beyond delusional. It's sad how the media is so overtly biased against Trump that they can't even put together fair debates or town halls.

    I'll give Savannah credit for looking very good for being almost 49 (though I imagine she's had work done), but from jump street she was in attack dog mode against Trump.

    Sad!

  4. #6024
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The ABC one for Biden was especially obnoxious because they kept having some voiceover guy quote lines from the Constitution, and the entire broadcast was done with patriotic overtones.

    And then they purposely avoid asking tough questions of the candidate they're featuring, because.... well, Trump is a threat to our very existence, and it's important to stack the deck against him so he doesn't win again.

    ABC and the mainstream media clearly don't give a shit about the truth or the will of the people. It's all about finding shifty ways to trick people into supporting their preferred candidate.

  5. #6025
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The ABC one for Biden was especially obnoxious because they kept having some voiceover guy quote lines from the Constitution, and the entire broadcast was done with patriotic overtones.

    And then they purposely avoid asking tough questions of the candidate they're featuring, because.... well, Trump is a threat to our very existence, and it's important to stack the deck against him so he doesn't win again.

    ABC and the mainstream media clearly don't give a shit about the truth or the will of the people. It's all about finding shifty ways to trick people into supporting their preferred candidate.
    The American Left leadership has to be some of the most self unaware people in the history of the world.

    They donít understand how their actions in the media reaffirm what Trump says about them, and make them lose ground with the middle part of the electorate.

    Itís actually hilarious to watch Trump scream #FakeNews and then given all the choices they choose to actually do fake news when anything close to balanced reporting would have crushed Trump this cycle.

     
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      Jayjami: Excellent take

  6. #6026
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
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Views: 169
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    As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and itís not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think itís a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

    The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just donít buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

    We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

    Election night comes down to 5 States.

    The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

    Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

    Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

    We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC donít look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

    Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

    MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isnít great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

    WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

    Some data points to watch on election night.

    Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
    Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
    Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

    I agree with map with the exception of NC and OH. NC is going Trump by 2 or 3 points, and Ohio is deep red, its not in question. I truly think MI is Trump. Detroit population continues to dwindle. AZ is definitely trouble though for Republicans. They might squeeze out one more cycle but it will be blue in the next 10 years, and deep blue in 20 years. On the flip side the upper mid-west will eventually be red.

    Say what you will about Trump, but he is a closer and if he has a good debate he will have an election day surge. People are getting used to the virus and anyone reasonable does not blame Trump for it. The people that blame him were never voting for him anyway.
    Reputation System (pinned rules)

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  7. #6027
    Quote Originally Posted by blake View Post
    my wife and i already voted for biden in PA
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  8. #6028
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
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    Good post, but I just don’t see Nevada going to Trump. No city has been hit as hard economically by COVID than Vegas (well, maybe Honolulu). The city ain’t coming back until this shitshow is under control. Conventions are Vegas’ bread and butter. They keep those hotel rooms occupied on the weekdays. I’m not saying Biden will do a better job, but we’ve seen what the super-spreader-in-chief has done.
    Last edited by Jayjami; 10-17-2020 at 07:55 AM.

  9. #6029
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
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    As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and itís not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think itís a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

    The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just donít buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

    We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

    Election night comes down to 5 States.

    The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

    Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

    Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

    We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC donít look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

    Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

    MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isnít great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

    WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

    Some data points to watch on election night.

    Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
    Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
    Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)
    lmao
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  10. #6030
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    your audience lacks the intellectual and moral courage to acknowledge anything you just typed, and will at best give you a EVEN IF THATS TRUE style response where they hope to fall back on their bannon-brand gambit to somehow tar and feather a private US citizen for being a business man and a presidential candidate for [ checks notes ] doing business as well.
    are referring to Trump in 2016?
    he tries to fly under the radar with his gay big words - Big Bird

  11. #6031
    abrown, if you truly believe that, go take this bet with Doug Polk and get rich. It's actually a better value than betting on Trump. Biden could win by 6% and you could still be a winner.

    MI and WI both to the left of PA and yet they're tossups while PA is shaded blue? NC and AZ are both redder than FL. Red Nevada? Oh lawd

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  12. #6032
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    You explain the way this happened, Salty.

    All coincidental events?
    Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

    For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

    It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.
    I think you're perfectly correct.
    Burisma would have been happy with the status-quo. Shokin doing jack shit would have suited them.

    Yes would have been much simpler to pay him and others off if needed.

    For a $30k hit would you expect them to know the windows were bullet proof?... he would be a hard guy to kill, $30k no way. 😀

     
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      gimmick: 30k might not get it done, but there would have been takers

  13. #6033
    It's not even going to be close.

    Biden will win both the popular and electoral vote with ease. Then Trump will cheat and try to steal the election.

    26 states are controlled by Republicans.
    Do the electors who actually vote for President have to vote for the one with the most votes? Nope, it's not written down. Perfect opportunity for Trump to cheat.


     
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      PLOL: at least this map is highly plausible

  14. #6034

     
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      MumblesBadly: LOL!
    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

  15. #6035
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    abrown, if you truly believe that, go take this bet with Doug Polk and get rich. It's actually a better value than betting on Trump. Biden could win by 6% and you could still be a winner.

    MI and WI both to the left of PA and yet they're tossups while PA is shaded blue? NC and AZ are both redder than FL. Red Nevada? Oh lawd

    PLOL I think of you as a smart man.

    So what percentage of margin does California represent in the polls?

    Turnout matters as much State by State as the overall make up of the State electorate.

    AZ used to be red, just look at what has happened the last 4 years.

    PA has increased the margin of registered Democrats by 190,000 in the last four years.

    Do the work, look at up-to-date data, demographics are changing across the country you have to account for those changes constantly.

    The Nevada pick is by far my most out there pick. Probably the highest chance to be wrong. Itís based on 25% unemployment with almost all of that coming from casino workers. Guess who gets the casino workers to the poll to vote Blue? The unions do, who doesnít have any follow-up/constant email communication with those fired casino workers? The union!

  16. #6036
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
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    As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and itís not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think itís a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

    The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just donít buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

    We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

    Election night comes down to 5 States.

    The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

    Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

    Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

    We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC donít look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

    Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

    MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isnít great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

    WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

    Some data points to watch on election night.

    Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
    Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
    Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

    You were easily the most accurate person last general election. You nailed it. All props.

    You and plo are both super sharp on this stuff, which is why Iím really light on this election. I hate when two people I consider very sharp have wildly different opinions.

    Hereís my feel, far less educated than either of yours, but we all see what we want to see to a degree, and you didnít mention seniors. Imo, how wildly they have swung is huge. They are also Election Day voters largely. It makes me feel Michigan and Wisconsin are more Biden than you think and early returns arenít as disparate as logic dictates.

    Also male black voters vote way less than female black voters, and Trump is polling 4% with black women, and his numbers among black males arenít anywhere close to what they were in a few polls early. I think Trump performs in the same 8-11 range the GOP always does. Iíd be shocked at even 13%. I think he will be at 9 if I had to pick a number.

    Hispanics are also unreliable voters. They never show to the degree they are projected to. Even if Trump has made inroads, that still hurts dems, but any minor shift to Trump in the Hispanic and black vote is overwhelmed by seniors being 20% a different direction than last go around. They are reliable. The few Trump positives are among the most unreliable voters.

    Itís a strange election. The only thing I strongly disagree with you on is turnout. Much if what you think relies on moderate turnout.

    This is the most serious business election I have ever seen. The enthusiasm gap is overrated as itís trump v Trump and everyone I know has already voted and certainly are voting. I also know a ton of Trump supporters who were apolitical in the past, who are now enthused, so it cuts both ways. He certainly has bled off suburban women, but heís added a lot of rural ones, so it remains to be seen.

    It may be because I know so many in PA. How you feel about your governor post Covid is undervalued. I know so many who donít hate Biden, but hate wolf, that makes me nervous. Itís why Iím always asking blake what heís hearing because these hillbillies need matched in Blakeís neighborhood. Itís also why I think turnout is going to be huge. Thatís really the only wager I feel comfortable about is turnout being high.

    I certainly donít feel like a 87% favorite like 538 says. I feel a 65/35 favorite.

    I like hearing both you and plo give your thoughts. I fall somewhere in between you both as far as confidence, but if turnout is what I think, I lean his way. I just feel, for once, we have the more reliable demographics favorably on our side. People who will show. I think youíre way off on Nevada. Maybe youíre right, but Iíd be shocked. Your map isnít insane in a low turnout election. I just donít see it being a low to average turnout election. I see the opposite, but youíve earned my respect in the past and Iím glad youíre posting your opinions and I take them seriously.

  17. #6037
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      splitthis: Tru

  18. #6038
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    Just a reminder, Canada is a shithole racist country where no one wants to live.

  19. #6039
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

    For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

    It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.
    So they paid millions to Hunter just to get access to Joe, got that access, and asked him NOT to get Shokin fired?

    And then Joe got Shokin fired anyway? Makes loads of sense.
    They might care one way or the other, but paying 50k a month to Hunter isn't enough to sway EU,IMF or World Bank. 50k is nothing to them. There was vested interest from too many parties.

    For instance look into 23 million that UK froze that belonged to owner of Burisma. They made a bid deal about doing stuff to tackle corruption and the end result was that they had to release the funds. Not only lack of evidence from Ukraine, but their prosecutors claimed he wasn't even investigated.

    When you make people look bad, someone has to pay.

    Oh and IMF was threatening to hold back 40b.

  20. #6040
    I can't wait to see what kind of shit show Florida is going to be in the 2020 Presidential election.


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