There's a new Wikileaks in town
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1314658973056937987
There's a new Wikileaks in town
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1314658973056937987
Wow, October surprise! This is going to absolutely obliterate the Clinton campaign.Originally Posted by thesidedish
TRUMP 2024!
Wow, October surprise! This is going to absolutely obliterate the Clinton campaign.
Low IQ response. ppl care about corruption unless they are libtard stereotypes aka redcoats
Nate Silver finally catching on to the Alaska play. I'm personally not involved in the Alaska market, but I know some sharps who bought up cheap Alaska shares a while back. I should've tailed. Nate's model still has South Carolina as a more likely flip than Alaska. I disagree with this. I have it as Ohio -> Georgia -> Iowa -> Texas -> Alaska
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1314668583734128643
Edit: I guess Nate finally pushed Alaska over SC, it's just still ahead in his snake-o-gram. Model is still underrating Alaska and overrating South Carolina. Sad!
Last edited by PLOL; 10-09-2020 at 01:08 PM.
TRUMP 2024!
I concur
I'm gonna get rich and u are not
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1314626735514755072
Anyone who still supports Trump continuing as president after what Trump has said this week about wanting Biden arrested immediately actually hates America. Including you, Druff if you still do so.
_____________________________________________
Agree. Trump doesn’t care about truth, real justice or even democracy itself. He wants to cast aside the will of the people and have a stacked court decide the next election. This is fundamentally un-American.
Not feeling Alaska here, PLOP.
Reminds me a bit of Utah in 2016. Too much talk of, "Wow, what if this went blue?" and then it wasn't even close.
The problem with Alaska is that Trump won by a huge margin. Even if you give every singe third party vote (including Johnson's) to Clinton, Trump still wins the state in 2016, and is still not that close:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...tewide_results
So even without Johnson and with Trump's diminished support... I don't see it happening. Trump crushed it really hard in the greater Anchorage area, which makes up most of the population. Fairbanks and the rest of the northern state actually went Clinton, but that's a wasteland with very little population.
Alaska can be a value play because it's ignored by pollsters, and thus you can beat the Predictit wise guys who react the same way you do every time a new poll comes out. My best dog win of all time on there was taking Ted Cruz at +1100 to win the state in the 2016 primary. Why? Because I knew it was a conservative state, and there was almost no polling data, so 11-to-1 on the 2nd favorite was huge value.
Anyway the price right now for Alaska on Predictit (looks around +350) isn't good enough, IMO.
There's also the neighbor influence factor.
People in general are like sheep. There is a natural human tendency to see what's around you as "normal", and then adjust to that. If you're an undecided voter living in West Hollywood and are constantly surrounded by Trump-hating liberals, you will probably end up voting Biden. If you're an undecided voter living 100 miles north in a small town where everyone hates the libs, you're more likely to end up voting Trump.
The problem with Alaska is that most of the population which voted Trump in 2016 is clustered in the biggest population center (Anchorage), and Trump won there heavily. It is not likely that enough of an anti-Trump sentiment has developed there to start changing people's minds.
Trump is much more vulnerable in areas where population shifts or changing Demographics have disrupted solid Republican states, and especially in breakthrough former-blue states where people decided to give him a shot 4 years ago, but have decided it didn't work out.
Alaska is way more elastic than the average state. 60% of Anchorage voters are Independents. They now have a Democratic mayor and city council. As you pointed out in your link over 12% (!) voted for somebody other than Trump or Hillary. I haven't looked it up, but outside of Utah that has to be the highest 3rd party vote share (maybe New Mexico is higher). I guarantee the 3rd party vote share will be way smaller this year. The 3rd party vote is breaking for Biden this cycle. It's a very underpolled state and because of the difficulty of polling there combined with it's unimportance electorally it'll probably stay that way. I'm not necessarily buying at 22 cents, but I'm definitely not buying R at 78 cents.
It could be like the Indiana of 2008.
Edit: This might honestly be the most fucked up state vote breakdown for 2016. 3% write-in??? Get a life, losers.
Last edited by PLOL; 10-09-2020 at 05:03 PM.
TRUMP 2024!
if you don't hate America you're not cool
the fact you're taking anything i say seriously is a joke, remember when you use to know how to internet? and you weren't a fag about everything?
Most Gary Johnson supporters I knew were libertarian-right. The type of libertarians who read reason.com. I have even a few of these on my Facebook. They're libertarian, but about 90% of their political posts are right of center. Not to say that there aren't left-leaning libertarians (the ones who tend to be so anti-police that they think the left isn't strong enough on that stance), but I feel they're outnumbered. Hard to believe that these Johnson voters are going mostly to Biden. Even if they break 60/40 Biden, that's still a ton of ground to make up.Alaska is way more elastic than the average state. 60% of Anchorage voters are Independents. They now have a Democratic mayor and city council. As you pointed out in your link over 12% (!) voted for somebody other than Trump or Hillary. I haven't looked it up, but outside of Utah that has to be the highest 3rd party vote share (maybe New Mexico is higher). I guarantee the 3rd party vote share will be way smaller this year. The 3rd party vote is breaking for Biden this cycle. It's a very underpolled state and because of the difficulty of polling there combined with it's unimportance electorally it'll probably stay that way. I'm not necessarily buying at 22 cents, but I'm definitely not buying R at 78 cents.
It could be like the Indiana of 2008.
Edit: This might honestly be the most fucked up state vote breakdown for 2016. 3% write-in??? Get a life, losers.
I don't think this election is going to bring any OMG-I-can't-believe-that-went-Biden results, regarding states. If Trump gets shellacked, I think it will be from the loss of the states he flipped (PA, MI, WI), the loss of previously-solid-Republican Arizona, and the loss of swing-states Florida and North Carolina. I don't see Biden getting anything beyond that, and I don't see Trump picking up anything he lost last time.
Unfortunately for Republicans like me, the current PredictIt map of 335-203 Biden looks like a fairly likely scenario.
Republicans need to watch out for the future, though. If they lose Texas and Georgia later in the 2020s, that's going to be a tough road for them in future Presidential elections.
If you want to make a small friendly wager I'll take that Biden wins more than 1.5 of the following states: Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, Texas, Alaska
TRUMP 2024!
I thought she was locked up.
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