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Thread: **OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

  1. #6321
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    People who opine on Ohio don’t grasp the population shift and how it has almost no correlation to PA, MI, and Wisconsin at this point when we are talking Trump.

    Trump can lose it in a landslide. It can be a bellwether again depending on the candidate, but if Ohio goes blue, it’s a landslide.

    If it was Ted Cruz, he’d get 30% here in the NE. These aren’t converted Republicans here, they just love Trump. Think of split. She hates a Dewine who is a lifelong fiscal conservative who balanced the budget during a pandemic. She isn’t a Republican. She is a Trumper.

    Trump wins counties. Cruz would get 30% here and need to pile up votes in Columbus. NE Ohio elected Jim Trafficant by 70% margins. We are corrupt. That’s in our DNA. Mussolini would get 78% here. We love populists and Ted Cruz would just be some hillbilly Mexican to all the Italian guys I know while they love Trump like he’s Rocky Balboa.

    There is no Philadelphia or Detroit in Ohio. Nothing similar as far as population distribution.

    So it makes the whole state Trumps to a degree, as all the population has moved south over decades. We aren’t talking white flight to suburbs. We are talking a 3 hour move. Like if everyone from South Florida moved to Northern Florida, eventually the politics of that area would gradually convert a number of then. It was Texas and twice Georgia margins in 2016.

    It’s not that red for anyone but Trump, and won’t be this time, but it doesn’t correlate to PA and Michigan. I lived in PA for 15 years. I worked for GM and was in Michigan constantly. I understand those states. Trump can book the smallest win or a big loss in those states. Trump can book a decent sized win or a small loss in Ohio in a landslide scenario.

    I don’t know Wisconsin or understand it and it makes me nervous.

    I’m not overly confident at all about the election. I said 65/35 last week, now I’d say 55/45 after a decent debate and a few weeks removed from his disaster week of horrible debate plus getting Covid himself after mocking it. He’d get slaughtered that week. In ten days? Early voting makes me feel a little better.

    I’m a pessimist though. I saw more Biden signs in my buddies affluent Columbus suburb than Trump. Total departure from last time. Trump will win the state by probably 2-4%, not over 8%, and logic dictates that means those other 3 states he won all by under 1% will likely fall blue.

    Ohio only correlates in the sense anywhere correlates. If Trump wins Georgia by 2% instead of 5, he’s likely to lose PA and Michigan also. It correlates not in some rust belt regional way, it only correlates just like any trend anywhere correlates.

    If Georgia is only 2 rather than 5, that means black people are showing for Biden a little more and voting traditionally which means Philly and Detroit probably see a similar uptick. If Trump wins Florida by less than last time, it means old white people like Biden and that probably helps in Wisconsin. Everything correlates, but Ohio isn’t some barometer of the other 3. Think of it like college football. Does Ohio State seem more like an SEC program or Wisconsin? If you know the fans, they are far more similar to fans of Bama or Georgia than Michigan or Wisconsin. That’s where all the people are at in Ohio.
    2 to 4% in Ohio? WTF? You know the state better than me since you live there. But this looks like 8+ for Trump. In the "Blue Wave" in 2018, the Governor won easily, correct? I put Blue Wave in quotes because the Senate gained R seats in 2018, and generally the House usually reverses after a Presidential election. The reversal was much worse under Obama but the media forgets that.

    As far as MI goes, I stand by what I have said all along, Trump has a great shot. Detroit no longer controls the state, partly because there are less than 700,000 people in the city now. The rural voters are gaining much more influence.

    Trafalgar is convinced Trump will get 270-289 EVs. I know the liberal media and bettors dismiss his group because they are all in on Biden. But he was spot on in 2016. People say it was a fluke, we shall see in 11 days. As it stands now, Trump is going to sweep the south, probably carry Arizona. There was a reason why Obama was in Philadelphia this week and not in NC, FL or AZ. This reminds me when Jay Z and Hillary did a concert in PA the week before the election.

    The fact Trump raised $26M the day after the debate means he is closing.

    The one thing is this, if Trump wins this go around, polling in effectively ruined and destroyed forever.

     
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      splitthis: Gonna rain red on the Trump win

  2. #6322
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Trying to figure out how Trump is poised to win a blow out victory in FL and Ohio, yet is going to lose the election. Florida is done, that is going to go huge to Trump now. Looks like this Senior vote defection was a media driven event.

    Like I said, it really is strange out of all the places Obama could have went, he was in Philadelphia. Odd.

     
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      splitthis: Wasting his time, PA ALSO LARGELY RURAL CONSERVATIVE.

  3. #6323
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    It’s possible he wins as big, but he certainly seems less popular with older people and it’s an old state. Also he lived here last election. Watching football today, it was all Biden all day. He is spending his time in PA because he needs it and figures he’ll win Ohio or be fucked anyway. 4 is a big win in a tight election. Obama beat Romney by 3.9 in 12. It was never in doubt, but 8+ was kind of an outlier it felt given he lived here every week. I think it’s going to be way bigger turnout, so that plays with the math a bit even if you win by almost the same number of votes.

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    Diamond Pro Zap_the_Fractions_Giraffe's Avatar
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    anyone posted the video of hunter biden smoking crack while getting a footjob yet? https://gtv.org/web/?videoid=5f94837...e25667c0fda196

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    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Lol came here to ask who's seen the Hunter Biden sex tape.
    TRUMP 2024!

    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Just non-stop unrelenting LGBT propaganda being shoved down our throats.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The early voting factor may end up being huge.

    The Hunter Biden stuff and the oil stuff might actually have some effect. If Trump succeeds in convincing people that Biden is corrupt, that can frustrate a lot of people away from the polls -- which benefits Trump, because he's always led in base enthusiasm. This election is basically Trump versus anti-Trump, and if the anti-Trump side doesn't show up as much, that's a big win for Trump.

    However, the campaign was flailing badly 2-3 weeks ago, and that's when a lot of people placed their votes. If early voting wasn't allowed this year, Trump would have a much better chance.

  7. #6327
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The early voting factor may end up being huge.

    The Hunter Biden stuff and the oil stuff might actually have some effect. If Trump succeeds in convincing people that Biden is corrupt, that can frustrate a lot of people away from the polls -- which benefits Trump, because he's always led in base enthusiasm. This election is basically Trump versus anti-Trump, and if the anti-Trump side doesn't show up as much, that's a big win for Trump.

    However, the campaign was flailing badly 2-3 weeks ago, and that's when a lot of people placed their votes. If early voting wasn't allowed this year, Trump would have a much better chance.
    No for a number of reasons. Historical data shows presidential debates have little or no effect on voters. Why? Because a four year track record cannot be undone in a couple of months.

    The Hunter Biden "scandal" while still unproven must be compared with the
    Trump team scandals which are very much proven

    Here are eight Trump associates arrested or convicted of crimes

    Steve Bannon ---Wall fraud charges
    Roger Stone- --- false statements, witness tampering Trump commuted sentence
    Paul Manafort --- money laundering, witness tampering etc 7 and a half years
    Michael Cohen -- lying to Congress, hush money scheme
    Michael Flynn --- lying to the FBI about his interactions with Russia’s ambassador
    Rick Gates ----- conspiracy against the United States and lying to investigators
    George Papadopoulos ---lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russian officials
    George Nader pleaded ---guilty to possessing child pornography
    and bringing a boy to the United States for sex.

  8. #6328
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post
    It’s possible he wins as big, but he certainly seems less popular with older people and it’s an old state. Also he lived here last election. Watching football today, it was all Biden all day. He is spending his time in PA because he needs it and figures he’ll win Ohio or be fucked anyway. 4 is a big win in a tight election. Obama beat Romney by 3.9 in 12. It was never in doubt, but 8+ was kind of an outlier it felt given he lived here every week. I think it’s going to be way bigger turnout, so that plays with the math a bit even if you win by almost the same number of votes.
    I think it is positively ridiculous you think Biden will win Ohio, or within 4 points. Sure, anything is possible in life, but Ohio is red, and becoming deep red. As far as older people you cite, sure they are pissed at Trump, but they will still pull the lever for him. The virus? Give me a break, no old person I know gives a shit, they know they are thin ice anyways, we all get to the finish line.

     
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      splitthis: He is retarded

  9. #6329
    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Are you proud of not understanding probability?

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  10. #6330
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    That tweet is kinda correct, though.

    You can't really brag about forecasting something 30/70 and the 30% hitting. At best, he can take credit for putting the 30% a lot higher than outlets like the NY Times, which had it at like 4%.

    However, when upsets occur, it's not really fair to brag about having seen it as 30% to hit. As the tweet pointed out, Silver could brag on either side of this, regardless of the 2016 results.

  11. #6331
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    aaaand here come the ex girlfriends


    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    PokerFraudAlert...will never censor your claims, even if they're against one of our sponsors. In addition to providing you an open forum report fraud within the poker community, we will also analyze your claims with a clear head an unbiased point of view. And, of course, the accused will always have the floor to defend themselves.-Dan Druff

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    Diamond Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    The Republicans are already on the moon, it's the only explanation for their behavior.

    SOBCHAK SECURITY 213-799-7798

    PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL

  14. #6334
    Gold Wiganer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe View Post
    The Republicans are already on the moon, it's the only explanation for their behavior.

     
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      Walter Sobchak: excellent sir
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyde View Post
    I stay to myself and keep out of trouble and/or potentially problematic scenarios

  15. #6335
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    yes, trump is literally campaigning with a fake melania.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  16. #6336
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    aaaand here come the ex girlfriends



    Recall when she was dating David Williams, and an ex-boyfriend called her to tell her about NWP and the porn?

    I guess she was on her way to fly to see her parents. When she got to mom and dad's house, she brought up NWP, clicked on the video, and everyone was disgusted. Then she dumped him.

    Or so said Perez Hilton in 2009.

    https://perezhilton.com/aubrey-oday-...t-fetish-porn/


    What a time to be alive.

  17. #6337
    Platinum BetCheckBet's Avatar
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    Can someone who is not extreme pro trump or Biden explain how likely the hunter Biden video is to be real?

  18. #6338
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    Can someone who is not extreme pro trump or Biden explain how likely the hunter Biden video is to be real?

    I haven't read the news yet today, but has Biden's camp come out and said it is fake? If not, it isn't.

  19. #6339
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BetCheckBet View Post
    Can someone who is not extreme pro trump or Biden explain how likely the hunter Biden video is to be real?
    As somebody who is neither a Trump supporter or Biden supporter and gets called a Trump supporter.

    All the Hunter stuff appears real.

    I do think it is very likely that Hunter, and his uncle, were using Joe’s name to profit without Joe’s knowledge. That sounds like something a drug addict son would do.

     
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      gimmick: i wouldn't be surspised if that was the extent

  20. #6340
    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    PokerFraudAlert...will never censor your claims, even if they're against one of our sponsors. In addition to providing you an open forum report fraud within the poker community, we will also analyze your claims with a clear head an unbiased point of view. And, of course, the accused will always have the floor to defend themselves.-Dan Druff

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