**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[garrett]

Trump ain't winning PA.

As soon as Biden became the nominee, I thought he would have trouble there. Once COVID hit, I wrote off PA.

Biden has always been popular there -- both due to his Scranton roots, and because tiny Delaware derives most of its identity from its proximity to PA.

Biden was chosen by Obama specifically to win Pennsylvania. Obama hasn't liked Biden from day 1, and still doesn't care for him. This isn't even much of a secret.

Biden's greatest strength (at the time he was nominated) was that it was very likely he'd grab PA back for the Dems, forcing Trump to have to win one of the three northern states (MI/WI/MN), while also having to hold everything else he previously carried.

This is why Trump is facing such an uphill battle.

This entire election comes right down to Pennsylvania and Florida actually. If Trump loses either or, or both and it is possible he is done. I don't think he can make up all of them electoral College votes elsewhere actually. So it comes down in ways to winning them 2 States this year actually.

[garrett]

Trump ain't winning PA.

As soon as Biden became the nominee, I thought he would have trouble there. Once COVID hit, I wrote off PA.

Biden has always been popular there -- both due to his Scranton roots, and because tiny Delaware derives most of its identity from its proximity to PA.

Biden was chosen by Obama specifically to win Pennsylvania. Obama hasn't liked Biden from day 1, and still doesn't care for him. This isn't even much of a secret.

Biden's greatest strength (at the time he was nominated) was that it was very likely he'd grab PA back for the Dems, forcing Trump to have to win one of the three northern states (MI/WI/MN), while also having to hold everything else he previously carried.

This is why Trump is facing such an uphill battle.

This entire election comes right down to Pennsylvania and Florida actually. If Trump loses either or, or both and it is possible he is done. I don't think he can make up all of them electoral College votes elsewhere actually. So it comes down in ways to winning them 2 States this year actually.

And I have seen where people think PA could go Biden actually more easily. And Florida, Trumps now new 'home State' lol (No State income taxes..) is close super close here, but I could make a case for leaning Trump..


Anyway the gambler in me would take the pos odds/underdawg and bet Biden...

I think'n it'll be a sweat at least lol, and if he wins these two States or both it could be a fun one.

[VaughnP]

i was 100% certain that all trump people are conspiracy theorists, so i'm surprised to hear them think that PA is even in play with mail in balloting, and with the PA supreme court ruling that ballots don't even need to be postmarked by election day.

50% of my neighbors/family have already voted. (i'm in PA). every other facebook post is how proud they are for doing so.

also no big deal but i read that dem early voters lead republican early voters by 46% in PA


enjoy that tranny dick, dish

(and yes, joe's oil line was stupid)

Trump is going to win Ohio, and he is the favorite in Florida for several reasons according to betting odds (-190 mybookie -135 Bovada etc.) and the predictit market. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, do you think he loses the election?

[VaughnP]

Check out this tool from Nate Silver's rigged model. If you confirm Trump wins Florida and Ohio, suddenly it flips Trumps average electoral votes won in their simulation to 274 with the race a tossup. If you give him North Carolina, he is a big favorite.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

[Tellafriend]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/fedporn/status/1319846045162082305

[Walter Sobchak]

Check out this tool from Nate Silver's rigged model. If you confirm Trump wins Florida and Ohio, suddenly it flips Trumps average electoral votes won in their simulation to 274 with the race a tossup. If you give him North Carolina, he is a big favorite.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

If you give Trump FL and OH in a vacuum, yes. But if you give him FL and OH and you also confirm other things that we know are very likely--giving Biden MI, MN, PA, NH, NV and CO--then Biden is a big favorite.

[PLOL]

Check out this tool from Nate Silver's rigged model. If you confirm Trump wins Florida and Ohio, suddenly it flips Trumps average electoral votes won in their simulation to 274 with the race a tossup. If you give him North Carolina, he is a big favorite.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

When you don't quite understand how models work but you like clicking buttons

[VaughnP]

The point I'm making is that Trump winning Ohio is more of a sure thing than Biden winning Pennsylvania or Wisconsin despite what your confirmation biased reactions to biased polling might be telling you. Florida at this point might actually be too.

[VaughnP]

You idiots also fail to realize that if you plug Trump in as winning Ohio, the model greatly increases Trump's chances of winning the rust belt states based on similar demographics.

The last president to win the election without Ohio was Kennedy, and he won the popular vote by only 108k.

[PLOL]

The point I'm making is that Trump winning Ohio is more of a sure thing than Biden winning Pennsylvania or Wisconsin despite what your confirmation biased reactions to biased polling might be telling you. Florida at this point might actually be too.

Sure, how much would you like to bet?

[VaughnP]

The point I'm making is that Trump winning Ohio is more of a sure thing than Biden winning Pennsylvania or Wisconsin despite what your confirmation biased reactions to biased polling might be telling you. Florida at this point might actually be too.

Sure, how much would you like to bet?

Yeah, sure. Let me take your shitty odds and hope I don't get rolled.

[PLOL]

Sure, how much would you like to bet?

Yeah, sure. Let me take your shitty odds and hope I don't get rolled.

Shitty odds? You just said Trump is more likely to win Florida than Biden is to win Pennsylvania. I will take that bet. Even odds. I have Biden to win PA. You have Trump to win FL. If Trump wins FL and Biden wins PA it's a wash. Happy to escrow up to $5k.

[VaughnP]

Yeah, sure. Let me take your shitty odds and hope I don't get rolled.

Shitty odds? You just said Trump is more likely to win Florida than Biden is to win Pennsylvania. I will take that bet. Even odds. I have Biden to win PA. You have Trump to win FL. If Trump wins FL and Biden wins PA it's a wash. Happy to escrow up to $5k.

You also had Hillary winning Georgia in 2016 and had this to say about the social desirability problem of the 2016 polls that's likely even worse now:

If you are a Trump supporter why on Earth would you tell a pollster?

Trump may have far more support than people think.

The problem with this theory is that Trump actually underperformed his poll numbers in the primaries. More people told pollsters they would vote for Trump in the primaries than actually voted for him.

[PLOL]

Okay so take the bet... it's literally what you proposed. Just let me know the amount and we can escrow.

[VaughnP]

Yeah, sure. Let me take that bet instead of Trump +180 with the same winning stipulation for Pennsylvania.

[PLOL]

List of states where you need to believe in a highly-complex conspiracy theory for Trump to win: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota.

[lol wow]

vaughn i swear to god if you lose this and skatz becomes owned by your lebanese whataburger franchise owning neighbor i will never forgive you

[VaughnP]

I would never bet this literal sucker of cocks.

Plus, I swear I'm not trying to brag etc. but even 5k means nothing to me anymore. Like I can't get excited about winning that no matter how hard I try.

[limitles]

I would never bet this literal sucker of cocks.

Plus, I swear I'm not trying to brag etc. but even 5k means nothing to me anymore. Like I can't get excited about winning that no matter how hard I try.

Sick brag fag

[PLOL]

I would never bet this literal sucker of cocks.

Plus, I swear I'm not trying to brag etc. but even 5k means nothing to me anymore. Like I can't get excited about winning that no matter how hard I try.

We get it, you're afraid to take the bet