Originally Posted by
abrown83
As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.
The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.
We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.
Election night comes down to 5 States.
The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.
Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.
Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.
We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.
Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.
MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.
WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here
Some data points to watch on election night.
Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)
You were easily the most accurate person last general election. You nailed it. All props.
You and plo are both super sharp on this stuff, which is why I’m really light on this election. I hate when two people I consider very sharp have wildly different opinions.
Here’s my feel, far less educated than either of yours, but we all see what we want to see to a degree, and you didn’t mention seniors. Imo, how wildly they have swung is huge. They are also Election Day voters largely. It makes me feel Michigan and Wisconsin are more Biden than you think and early returns aren’t as disparate as logic dictates.
Also male black voters vote way less than female black voters, and Trump is polling 4% with black women, and his numbers among black males aren’t anywhere close to what they were in a few polls early. I think Trump performs in the same 8-11 range the GOP always does. I’d be shocked at even 13%. I think he will be at 9 if I had to pick a number.
Hispanics are also unreliable voters. They never show to the degree they are projected to. Even if Trump has made inroads, that still hurts dems, but any minor shift to Trump in the Hispanic and black vote is overwhelmed by seniors being 20% a different direction than last go around. They are reliable. The few Trump positives are among the most unreliable voters.
It’s a strange election. The only thing I strongly disagree with you on is turnout. Much if what you think relies on moderate turnout.
This is the most serious business election I have ever seen. The enthusiasm gap is overrated as it’s trump v Trump and everyone I know has already voted and certainly are voting. I also know a ton of Trump supporters who were apolitical in the past, who are now enthused, so it cuts both ways. He certainly has bled off suburban women, but he’s added a lot of rural ones, so it remains to be seen.
It may be because I know so many in PA. How you feel about your governor post Covid is undervalued. I know so many who don’t hate Biden, but hate wolf, that makes me nervous. It’s why I’m always asking blake what he’s hearing because these hillbillies need matched in Blake’s neighborhood. It’s also why I think turnout is going to be huge. That’s really the only wager I feel comfortable about is turnout being high.
I certainly don’t feel like a 87% favorite like 538 says. I feel a 65/35 favorite.
I like hearing both you and plo give your thoughts. I fall somewhere in between you both as far as confidence, but if turnout is what I think, I lean his way. I just feel, for once, we have the more reliable demographics favorably on our side. People who will show. I think you’re way off on Nevada. Maybe you’re right, but I’d be shocked. Your map isn’t insane in a low turnout election. I just don’t see it being a low to average turnout election. I see the opposite, but you’ve earned my respect in the past and I’m glad you’re posting your opinions and I take them seriously.