**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[TheXFactor]

Trump gets your email address and spams you with 20 emails or more per day with bullshit like matching your donation by 500%.

Don't donate any money to any political party.

They don't deserve it.

Trump's campaign blew almost $1 billion, and now it's in deep trouble

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...finance-2020-9

[MumblesBadly]

Great business man. Only the BEST people!

THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN REPORTEDLY BLEW $1 BILLION ON PRIVATE JETS, TRUMP PROPERTIES, AND DON JR.’S SHITTY BOOK

Now it can’t even afford to air ads in key swing states.

https://apnews.com/article/election-...a44fedcbf5b128

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...aign-cash-woes

Not sure why the lol emojis. Trump has been very successful in funneling a huge portion of that campaign war chest to his properties and family. And if Biden’s administration doesn’t go after Trump for the crimes he’s committed while in office, Trump’s presidency, albeit a disaster for most of us, will have enriched Trump and his family by several hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe even as much as a half billion.

[Walter Sobchak]

So... how 'bout that Hunter Biden?

Remember when the Dems were saying there was "no evidence" that he or Joe did anything wrong?

Also, how 'bout that Twitter trying to suppress the story?

I haven't seen the posts for a few days. Have you admitted that this was fake?

[Walter Sobchak]

Are you asking about the first sentence or the second sentence?

the second.

Well since it turns out that this whole Hunter laptop thing was faked by Giuliani and the Russians, it's a moot point.

[Walter Sobchak]

what supposedly came out (from hunter's computer that he "abandoned" at a computer repair store in delaware -- lol, ok) is that biden may have met with his son's work connection.

this is literally what every politician does every single day, all day long. they do favors for their friends and family by taking meetings, showing interest, etc.

donald trump probably does this 300 times a day and there is no one on earth that would dispute this.

i love how the diamond heart of this conspiracy is the amount of money hunter got paid, and it was so effective because team retard had no idea people on boards get paid that much money.

Boards of big companies are such a scam. They're supposed to oversee the executives but all they do is suck each other's dicks and give each other money. Each is on the board of the other's company. It's one big swinger party with cash exchanged rather than bodily fluids. Most of them are Republicans but that's not really the point.

[Walter Sobchak]

what supposedly came out (from hunter's computer that he "abandoned" at a computer repair store in delaware -- lol, ok) is that biden may have met with his son's work connection.

this is literally what every politician does every single day, all day long. they do favors for their friends and family by taking meetings, showing interest, etc.

donald trump probably does this 300 times a day and there is no one on earth that would dispute this.

It's not fair to call this a conspiracy. Elaborate interpretations of the emails and text messages maybe, but at the very least there is much more to the story.

The bigger issue that they are hinting around at is that Biden might be the "the big guy" and "chairman" referenced in term of payments etc., this is why Giuliani went on television with a print out of a Hunter text saying that Joe takes half of their salaries. Apparently this was just the tip of the leaks.

Also, are we going to pretend like Twitter shouldn't burn for trying to censor this story?

They've made it clear they will tag or delete posts that are fake. This story is fake. They're a private platform that, thanks to years of aggressive lobbying and court advocacy by Republicans that has delivered the current era of corporate dominance, is entitled to do whatever they want no matter how powerful and influential they are. They can sleep in the bed they made.

[Walter Sobchak]

So are these black people fake or real?

They ain't black.

[Walter Sobchak]

Rupert Murdoch Predicts a Landslide Win for Biden

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-ne...biden?ref=home

President Trump’s influential supporter Rupert Murdoch is telling close associates he believes Joe Biden will win the election in a landslide.

Biden will probably get at least 10 million more votes than Trump.

But just because you get more votes doesn't make you a winner. Just ask Al Gore and Hillary Clinton.

There are still plenty of ways Trump can cheat.

Florida is only going to count enough votes to declare Donald Trump the winner.

It doesn't really matter what happens on November 3rd.

It matters what happens on December 14th when the electors who actually vote for President are asked to disregard Biden’s win and vote for Trump instead.

If this actually happens, Congress is free to disregard the EVs of Florida.

Also, Biden will get more than 270 EVs even without Florida, unless Trump cheats or others cheat on his behalf.

[Walter Sobchak]

suburban women hopping aboard the :train

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1316940663544492032

I'm really in awe of your ability to completely ignore reality.

[Walter Sobchak]

Nobody needs to see anymore debates.

I don't buy that there are any undecided voters left and anybody who votes for Kayne West is a certifiable nut job.

At least Rudy Giuliani's daughter has some common sense because Rudy Giuliani does not. He is a crazy, insane idiot and moron.

Rudy Giuliani's daughter says to vote for Biden and Harris to end Trump's 'reign of terror'

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/16/p...020/index.html

1, 2

[Walter Sobchak]

Nobody needs to see anymore debates.

I don't buy that there are any undecided voters left and anybody who votes for Kayne West is a certifiable nut job.

At least Rudy Giuliani's daughter has some common sense because Rudy Giuliani does not. He is a crazy, insane idiot and moron.

Rudy Giuliani's daughter says to vote for Biden and Harris to end Trump's 'reign of terror'

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/16/p...020/index.html

90% of Trump hating women have serious Daddy issues.

100% of women with daddy issues are great lays.

[Walter Sobchak]

Seems like the strategy to have the town hall at the exact time as Biden's may have backfired on the Trump campaign. I'm sure they thought they would get the higher ratings and use that to fuel Trump's talking point that Biden has no enthusiasm behind his campaign.

Looks like ABC packed the town hall with Biden supporters

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bid...vania-democrat

This really needs to be an SNL skit - Larry David as Bernie Sanders with a wig and mustache on at the Town Hall asking Biden why he's not angrier at Trump for not believing in climate change and medicare for all.

And yet Biden got 4 million more viewers. Trump has to hate that given how much he cares about ratings and crowds.

[Walter Sobchak]

tgull, did you also attend a prestigious NE boarding school?

One where they made him wear a diaper and a ball gag, that would explain a lot of his issues.

[Walter Sobchak]

trump a cool billion in debt

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalex...-he-suggested/

You left the next paragraph of the article out though:

It is important to note, as Trump did Thursday night, that he also has significant assets. Forbes values them at $3.66 billion, enough to make his net worth an estimated $2.5 billion. He is not broke, despite what many critics claim.

You can have a lot of assets and not enough cash flow to service your debt as it comes due. Most of Trump's assets lose money and he will be selling some hotels and golf courses in the next few years to pay off Sergei and Dimitri when they come around to collect.

[Walter Sobchak]

bump

Whats your stance Druff?

Yes, it's likely Biden had the Ukranian prosecutor fired because his son was involved with Burisma. Why do you think Biden cared about that prosecutor so much? Because a few people in Europe said he was corrupt? LOL

Biden took an intense interest in the guy because it was likely to affect Hunter. He probably talked himself into believing that the guy was corrupt anyway, so he was killing 2 birds with one stone.

It's amazing that you and others on the left don't make tis obvious connection.

What's amazing is that you don't make the obvious connection between Republican claims of "voter fraud" and what it actually is, which is voter suppression, even when THEY ADMIT IT OUT LOUD.

[Tellafriend]

i love how the diamond heart of this conspiracy is the amount of money hunter got paid, and it was so effective because team retard had no idea people on boards get paid that much money.

Boards of big companies are such a scam. They're supposed to oversee the executives but all they do is suck each other's dicks and give each other money. Each is on the board of the other's company. It's one big swinger party with cash exchanged rather than bodily fluids. Most of them are Republicans but that's not really the point.

Absolutely correct on all points save the final one, which I have no knowledge of. It's cronyism at its finest.

[Walter Sobchak]

The ABC one for Biden was especially obnoxious because they kept having some voiceover guy quote lines from the Constitution, and the entire broadcast was done with patriotic overtones.

And then they purposely avoid asking tough questions of the candidate they're featuring, because.... well, Trump is a threat to our very existence, and it's important to stack the deck against him so he doesn't win again.

ABC and the mainstream media clearly don't give a shit about the truth or the will of the people. It's all about finding shifty ways to trick people into supporting their preferred candidate.

That's complete bullshit but there was a way to prevent this from happening at all. Trump could agree to reasonable accommodations to hold the second debate BECAUSE HE HAD COVID and was within the transmission window. He refused so the debate was cancelled. He shot himself in the foot (again).

[Walter Sobchak]

As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

Election night comes down to 5 States.

The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

Some data points to watch on election night.

Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

Ridiculous.

[Walter Sobchak]

It's not even going to be close.

Biden will win both the popular and electoral vote with ease. Then Trump will cheat and try to steal the election.

26 states are controlled by Republicans.
Do the electors who actually vote for President have to vote for the one with the most votes? Nope, it's not written down. Perfect opportunity for Trump to cheat.

Almost every state requires its electors to vote for the winner of the state's popular vote. Some penalize faithless electors.

Congress must certify the results when it comes back into session Jan. 3 (and at which time, both houses will be controlled by Democrats). They can disregard any states that attempt to override their popular vote.

[Walter Sobchak]

As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

Election night comes down to 5 States.

The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

Some data points to watch on election night.

Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

You were easily the most accurate person last general election. You nailed it. All props.

You and plo are both super sharp on this stuff, which is why I’m really light on this election. I hate when two people I consider very sharp have wildly different opinions.

Here’s my feel, far less educated than either of yours, but we all see what we want to see to a degree, and you didn’t mention seniors. Imo, how wildly they have swung is huge. They are also Election Day voters largely. It makes me feel Michigan and Wisconsin are more Biden than you think and early returns aren’t as disparate as logic dictates.

Also male black voters vote way less than female black voters, and Trump is polling 4% with black women, and his numbers among black males aren’t anywhere close to what they were in a few polls early. I think Trump performs in the same 8-11 range the GOP always does. I’d be shocked at even 13%. I think he will be at 9 if I had to pick a number.

Hispanics are also unreliable voters. They never show to the degree they are projected to. Even if Trump has made inroads, that still hurts dems, but any minor shift to Trump in the Hispanic and black vote is overwhelmed by seniors being 20% a different direction than last go around. They are reliable. The few Trump positives are among the most unreliable voters.

It’s a strange election. The only thing I strongly disagree with you on is turnout. Much if what you think relies on moderate turnout.

This is the most serious business election I have ever seen. The enthusiasm gap is overrated as it’s trump v Trump and everyone I know has already voted and certainly are voting. I also know a ton of Trump supporters who were apolitical in the past, who are now enthused, so it cuts both ways. He certainly has bled off suburban women, but he’s added a lot of rural ones, so it remains to be seen.

It may be because I know so many in PA. How you feel about your governor post Covid is undervalued. I know so many who don’t hate Biden, but hate wolf, that makes me nervous. It’s why I’m always asking blake what he’s hearing because these hillbillies need matched in Blake’s neighborhood. It’s also why I think turnout is going to be huge. That’s really the only wager I feel comfortable about is turnout being high.

I certainly don’t feel like a 87% favorite like 538 says. I feel a 65/35 favorite.

I like hearing both you and plo give your thoughts. I fall somewhere in between you both as far as confidence, but if turnout is what I think, I lean his way. I just feel, for once, we have the more reliable demographics favorably on our side. People who will show. I think you’re way off on Nevada. Maybe you’re right, but I’d be shocked. Your map isn’t insane in a low turnout election. I just don’t see it being a low to average turnout election. I see the opposite, but you’ve earned my respect in the past and I’m glad you’re posting your opinions and I take them seriously.

The difference is that abrown is engaging in wishful thinking. In 2016 he got his wish. Santa isn't coming this year.

Biden will win in a landslide and Trump can only win by cheating.