**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[Walter Sobchak]

Yep, this is a common theme on PI. Either Trump is undervalued in the states, or he's overvalued in the general. Or both. Either way, there's a mismatch of pricing that you can take advantage of.

If you like Trump, buy Trump in the states (riskier). OR Buy Trump in the states and sell Trump in the GE (risk adverse). But don't buy Trump in the GE and ignore the states (overpaying).

If you like Biden, buy Biden in the general (riskier). OR Buy Biden in the general and sell Biden in the states (risk adverse). But don't buy Biden in the states and ignore the GE (overpaying).

yeah the whole site is completely inconsistent

it has trump 50 to biden 43, but has the popular vote winner becoming president at 65-35


so trump must be favored to win the popular vote, right?

um no, predictit has biden destroying trump here 70-30

That market is neither large enough nor liquid enough to be predictive.

That's why it's still possible to make money on it.

Shhhh, don't tell anyone.

[tgull]

literally dozens of college kids are responsible for the money moving the lines on predictit.

Every betting market at the moment is in line with predictit. That's a lot of college kids betting on Presidential markets sitting at home now with no money. But I get your point it could happen. Most college kids bet on events 5 months in advance and wait. It's in their nature.

[Walter Sobchak]

literally dozens of college kids are responsible for the money moving the lines on predictit.

Could even be hundreds.

[SPIT this]

Summary of election.

Blacks won’t vote at all because no black candidate.
Trump supporters will all vote.
Democrats won’t vote at all over voting for sleepy creepy basement Biden.

Trump wins.

Blacks aren't going to vote because Democrats nominated the guy they overwhelmingly and enthusiastically supported. Never mind that Harris is also the favorite to be VP.

[SPIT this]

literally dozens of college kids are responsible for the money moving the lines on predictit.

Every betting market at the moment is in line with predictit. That's a lot of college kids betting on Presidential markets sitting at home now with no money. But I get your point it could happen. Most college kids bet on events 5 months in advance and wait. It's in their nature.

You mean they're all in line with PredictIt having Democrats as the favorite?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

[ShawnFanningsLimpDick]

You should check out the UK site betfair for political betting odds even if you can't use it. They have already matched £30 million in bets on the Presidential election! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...etting-2378961 The site is extremely transparent and you can back or lay.

Right now there are some striking anomalies in the market. Trump is slightly odds against @ 2.08 (this means if you staked £1 and won you'd get £2.08 back, so 2.0 would be Evens) but Biden is available @ 2.4. That means the market is factoring in a HUGE 10% chance of at least one of them not making it to the starting line.

[sonatine]

i had like $500 in play during the dem primaries and i moved the line 3 cents when i sold my position.

i mean..

[tgull]

Every betting market at the moment is in line with predictit. That's a lot of college kids betting on Presidential markets sitting at home now with no money. But I get your point it could happen. Most college kids bet on events 5 months in advance and wait. It's in their nature.

You mean they're all in line with PredictIt having Democrats as the favorite?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

I have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose. I think everyone agrees there is a really good chance Biden is not around come November. Whether it's by discretion, a hospital bed or a coffin, it really is unlikely he is the candidate. But he is a stubborn old man, so he might just ride it out in his basement. That is why there is such a discrepancy in the odds right now.

I think any right minded Democrat knows Joe can't hang out in his basement forever. With that said, he is a walking ghost if he leaves and mingles with like 10 voters. But here again he is stubborn so he will either stay in his basement or just get wheeled out in a glass dome at the convention and look ridiculous.

At least Trump is saying Fuck it, and that plays in politics. Joe in the Bubble no, it does not.

[tgull]

i had like $500 in play during the dem primaries and i moved the line 3 cents when i sold my position.

i mean..

Every book has Trump up by 7-10. Yes it will narrow, etc.. But this is not a few college kids staying home and bumming money from their parents. Many people hate Trump, but they see Biden as literally as a walking ghost. The guy is terrified to leave his house and that just is a losing strategy.

[blake]

You mean they're all in line with PredictIt having Democrats as the favorite?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

I have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose. I think everyone agrees there is a really good chance Biden is not around come November. Whether it's by discretion, a hospital bed or a coffin, it really is unlikely he is the candidate. But he is a stubborn old man, so he might just ride it out in his basement. That is why there is such a discrepancy in the odds right now.

I think any right minded Democrat knows Joe can't hang out in his basement forever. With that said, he is a walking ghost if he leaves and mingles with like 10 voters. But here again he is stubborn so he will either stay in his basement or just get wheeled out in a glass dome at the convention and look ridiculous.

At least Trump is saying Fuck it, and that plays in politics. Joe in the Bubble no, it does not.

bottomset predicting trump loses in 2020, after insisting trump won't lose for months

[SPIT this]

You mean they're all in line with PredictIt having Democrats as the favorite?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

I have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose.

Hard to get more generic than Biden.

Biden is trading at a 44% chance to be president, and an 80% chance to be the nominee. This implies a 55% chance of winning the presidential election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

[splitthis]

I have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose.

Hard to get more generic than Biden.

Biden is trading at a 44% chance to be president, and an 80% chance to be the nominee. This implies a 55% chance of winning the presidential election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

You are totally retarded

[Tellafriend]

[SPIT this]

Hard to get more generic than Biden.

Biden is trading at a 44% chance to be president, and an 80% chance to be the nominee. This implies a 55% chance of winning the presidential election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

You are totally retarded

Because I understand math and you don't? Yikes

[blake]

split is fat now, right

[tgull]

I have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose. I think everyone agrees there is a really good chance Biden is not around come November. Whether it's by discretion, a hospital bed or a coffin, it really is unlikely he is the candidate. But he is a stubborn old man, so he might just ride it out in his basement. That is why there is such a discrepancy in the odds right now.

I think any right minded Democrat knows Joe can't hang out in his basement forever. With that said, he is a walking ghost if he leaves and mingles with like 10 voters. But here again he is stubborn so he will either stay in his basement or just get wheeled out in a glass dome at the convention and look ridiculous.

At least Trump is saying Fuck it, and that plays in politics. Joe in the Bubble no, it does not.

bottomset predicting trump loses in 2020, after insisting trump won't lose for months

I have been on record saying it depends on where the economy is in October, and that really goes for any President with the exception of FDR since he got a pass his first term. Outside of that it's what people are feeling about their future finances.

You are not talking to some Associates degreed loser like Muck Ficon collecting stimulus checks and fist pumping. You are talking to the Juice.

[Walter Sobchak]

bottomset predicting trump loses in 2020, after insisting trump won't lose for months

I have been on record saying it depends on where the economy is in October, and that really goes for any President with the exception of FDR since he got a pass his first term. Outside of that it's what people are feeling about their future finances.

You are not talking to some Associates degreed loser like Muck Ficon collecting stimulus checks and fist pumping. You are talking to the Juice.

You mean like this juice?

[JimmyG_415]

LOL, George Conway's group trying to reignite a fire.
Trump doesn't like people getting rich off of him, w/out getting a piece.
Parscale had to fly to the WH to cool Trump down a few weeks ago.

PSA if you have any extra green rep points, consider giving them to tgull, he could use a boost.

Don't worry Tgull I have 8 more, and even though he doesn't care about his score, lets get him back under 200.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1263168990563762180

[thesidedish]

LOL, George Conway's group trying to reignite a fire.
Trump doesn't like people getting rich off of him, w/out getting a piece.
Parscale had to fly to the WH to cool Trump down a few weeks ago.

PSA if you have any extra green rep points, consider giving them to tgull, he could use a boost.

Don't worry Tgull I have 8 more, and even though he doesn't care about his score, lets get him back under 200.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1263168990563762180

these ppl are completely irrelevant. like ya we get it, u really want a career in politics but have 0 chance of making more than 100k with Trumpism around

[Tellafriend]

Who is George Conway again, and why should anyone care what he's doing?