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Thread: PSA: Check your Mortgage Rate

  1. #1
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    PSA: Check your Mortgage Rate

    Even if you recently bought or refinanced. The rates have come way down and they project to fall even more (although it may not fully show up in mortgage rates as demand is high).

    They doing 30 years at 3.2%

    Iím looking at a 10 year 2.5% no points or closing costs.

  2. #2
    I'll let my landlord know
    Signature has been deleted by Dan Druff for not following proper font regulations (Sons of bitches)

  3. #3
    Surprised your rates are so high over there Iíve been on sub 2% for past 7 years in the Uk, from memory I think it was 1.89 from 2014 then I switched deals and am on 1.79 now, deal ends 30/4 and I might not get quite as good a rate, but would be surprised if new deal was higher than 2.1%.

     
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  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Wiganer View Post
    Surprised your rates are so high over there Iíve been on sub 2% for past 7 years in the Uk, from memory I think it was 1.89 from 2014 then I switched deals and am on 1.79 now, deal ends 30/4 and I might not get quite as good a rate, but would be surprised if new deal was higher than 2.1%.
    Rates are trading negative in Europe, hence yours our low compared to ours. I'd hold off, if the Corona bullshit continues then QE will come back even more and rates will go lower.
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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Even if you recently bought or refinanced. The rates have come way down and they project to fall even more (although it may not fully show up in mortgage rates as demand is high).

    They doing 30 years at 3.2%

    Iím looking at a 10 year 2.5% no points or closing costs.
    If you want to save a few more bps I'd gamble and hold off a bit longer. They're projecting an additional 25-75bp rate cut so that should translate to a few more bps... should being the key word.
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  6. #6
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiganer View Post
    Surprised your rates are so high over there Iíve been on sub 2% for past 7 years in the Uk, from memory I think it was 1.89 from 2014 then I switched deals and am on 1.79 now, deal ends 30/4 and I might not get quite as good a rate, but would be surprised if new deal was higher than 2.1%.

    Love to do a sterling carry trade with a mortgage. If you know a lender over there thatís wants a US based mortgage Iím in!

    Hard to fathom but the ECB and British royal Bank play with rates more than the us Fed. If you can believe it.

  7. #7
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by handicapme View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Even if you recently bought or refinanced. The rates have come way down and they project to fall even more (although it may not fully show up in mortgage rates as demand is high).

    They doing 30 years at 3.2%

    Iím looking at a 10 year 2.5% no points or closing costs.
    If you want to save a few more bps I'd gamble and hold off a bit longer. They're projecting an additional 25-75bp rate cut so that should translate to a few more bps... should being the key word.

    Interesting topic. I read an article last night that said itís a virtual lock that the US ten year will fall.... that wasnít a question. What was in question is will it show into mortgage rates. Simply put there is no reason for originators to go sub 3 on a 30 year at the moment as demand is at a multiyear high. Now if the 10 years falls and rates stay this low for a while you may be onto something.

    Iím just starting the process but it seems I can save 70 basis points off my 15 year and can refi into a 10 year and keep roughly the same payment and shave off 16 months.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by handicapme View Post

    If you want to save a few more bps I'd gamble and hold off a bit longer. They're projecting an additional 25-75bp rate cut so that should translate to a few more bps... should being the key word.

    Interesting topic. I read an article last night that said itís a virtual lock that the US ten year will fall.... that wasnít a question. What was in question is will it show into mortgage rates. Simply put there is no reason for originators to go sub 3 on a 30 year at the moment as demand is at a multiyear high. Now if the 10 years falls and rates stay this low for a while you may be onto something.

    Iím just starting the process but it seems I can save 70 basis points off my 15 year and can refi into a 10 year and keep roughly the same payment and shave off 16 months.
    The demand will/should have an odd cyclical impact vs the norm. Think of it this way, demand high -> prices should go up. However, originators are more concerned with their fees (primarily where they'll make money + securitization). They don't give a fuck if duration of current pools gets killed driven by refis as long as they get their fees.

    What happens when demand is high is that you can print a bunch of refis, rather than holding the market price steady you should see a race to the bottom as super senior/senior mbs pools tranches have the same "credit rating" or higher as USTs but you get a spread pick up. Becauseof this refis into new pools are still viableeven at lower rates... ask yourself what the average duration looks like for those tranches, then you'll understand the rationale of the 10yr UST comparison. The impact isn't immediate and lags a bit but I wouldn't be shocked to see rates tighten in much further. I have 3.55% on my 30yr and when it breaches 3% will consider rolling or buying into a 15yr... will depend on curve and opportunity cost.

     
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  9. #9
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?

  10. #10
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?
    No

    Too much demand

  11. #11
    my mortgage payment dropped a whopping $12

  12. #12
    I’m going to wait until the bank pays me to borrow money for a house.

    I give it 7 months.


    Handicap, was the conventional duration thought to be 7 years? Perhaps that is a useless metric? I always had that number in the back of my head.

    Do you miss it handicap? The juice?
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-04-2020 at 11:34 PM.

  13. #13
    Gold splitthis's Avatar
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    Choose a Roo house over a Pooh house and a mortgage is a distant memory. Freedom is better than aesthetics.
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  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?
    No

    Too much demand
    You forget that "demand" for a refi doesn't mean the level will hold. Read above, it's a race to the bottom for fees.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?
    If I were to bet on a 15yr mort at around 2.4, I'd bet possible. I think rates are likely to continue to tighten as everyone rushes to safety. 2.375 if around 50-60bps from current levels so it's tough and I'd need some odds because if the Corona shit clears up then that window is closed.

     
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  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?

    Credit union here is offering 2.5/2.64 15yr & 2.375/2.581 10yr.....
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  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by handicapme View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?

    Credit union here is offering 2.5/2.64 15yr & 2.375/2.581 10yr.....
    Christ...I need to shop...my mortgage company gave me 3.125 for 15...

    girl was nice enough, but I wanted to tell her to pound fucking sand...

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by handicapme View Post


    Credit union here is offering 2.5/2.64 15yr & 2.375/2.581 10yr.....
    Christ...I need to shop...my mortgage company gave me 3.125 for 15...

    girl was nice enough, but I wanted to tell her to pound fucking sand...
    Look at credit unions.... this was from suffolk credit union.

     
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  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    handicap...if you were a betting man, where would you see a 10 or 15 year getting to?

    like you think we could see 2.25 on a 10 year and 2.375 on a 15?
    No

    Too much demand
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  20. #20
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by handicapme View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post

    No

    Too much demand
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    Thatís great - canít seem to find this in my area yet.

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