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Thread: *** OFFICIAL *** 2020 Galfond Challenge Thread

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Not sure if you're trolling here, but Galfond should take all the precautions he can, such as having the guy on camera while they play.

    Still not 100% foolproof but if he has two camera angles (one on the screen and one on the guy), that would eliminate a lot of the cheating possibilities.

    At a match of this size, you can't be too careful.
    Way this was setup you should never offer the challenge, if you lose to what solvers can run in 10 seconds. Far as i know it's only rivers that have small enough trees to matter. And you kinda ought to know the results beforehand, since people solved those spots before solvers.
    I'm trying to understand what you're saying here.

    Are you asserting that solvers aren't very helpful against really good players?

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    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Way this was setup you should never offer the challenge, if you lose to what solvers can run in 10 seconds. Far as i know it's only rivers that have small enough trees to matter. And you kinda ought to know the results beforehand, since people solved those spots before solvers.
    I'm trying to understand what you're saying here.

    Are you asserting that solvers aren't very helpful against really good players?
    Running solvers live. They aren't that fast yet. Far as i know they are in the same spot chess computers were say in the 90s. They could flawlessly solve end game situations fast and you could analyze specific midgame situations with decent confidence in the matter of days. Speaking of computers that were available to public.

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    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    It doesnt matter though. It is completely irrelevant if the guy is using solvers. There is nothing Galfond can do about it if this were the case.. It will affect the game but again too bad.

    If you challenge the world to heads up matches you get whatever comes to you. Who is the dumb one now?

    In the case of the Astros I didnt really follow what the owner did or didnt say and dont really care. If he said it didnt affect the game hes obv lying.

    But when it comes to sign stealing. Too fucking bad. You don’t want your signs stolen then don’t use signs. Teams dont have to use signs. If they do then they might get stolen. Every team steals signs or tries to in every sport. If they dont then they have a shitty program. Astros did it pretty good. Deserving champions and they paid the price the commish sent down.

    /thread
    Not sure if you're trolling here, but Galfond should take all the precautions he can, such as having the guy on camera while they play.

    Still not 100% foolproof but if he has two camera angles (one on the screen and one on the guy), that would eliminate a lot of the cheating possibilities.

    At a match of this size, you can't be too careful.
    Not trolling. Phil has ZERO leverage here.

    He Probably should have negotiated this before the challenge if he wanted cameras. Its too late now. Guy doesnt have to agree to anything new.

    If the guy was using nothing and Phil asked him to go on camera and the guy still kicked his ass Phil would look like a paranoid fool.

    On the flip side the guy could be using “legal” software and have good methods and doesn’t want to give secrets away.

    Imagine being the guy who owns a poker site/ training site getting his ass kicked and then asking for the guy to play on camera. Such a terrible look.

    In the end whatever site they are playing on should be scanning to make sure nothing shadys going on. If they can’t detect anything then thats it.

    Its online poker. Anything goes nowadays. Expect the worst or do not challenge the world to zillion dollar matches

     
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      Muck Ficon: Telling everyone Cmoney died. Such a terrible look
    Last edited by chinamaniac; 02-18-2020 at 04:02 AM.

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    Gold MrTickle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Way this was setup you should never offer the challenge, if you lose to what solvers can run in 10 seconds. Far as i know it's only rivers that have small enough trees to matter. And you kinda ought to know the results beforehand, since people solved those spots before solvers.
    I'm trying to understand what you're saying here.

    Are you asserting that solvers aren't very helpful against really good players?
    He's saying that solvers aren't fast enough yet. The decision tree is too large. It would take a lot longer than 10 seconds for the solver to give the decision. It's only on rivers where the solver would be useful, as the decision tree is much smaller and can be computed much faster.

     
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    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrTickle View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    I'm trying to understand what you're saying here.

    Are you asserting that solvers aren't very helpful against really good players?
    He's saying that solvers aren't fast enough yet. The decision tree is too large. It would take a lot longer than 10 seconds for the solver to give the decision. It's only on rivers where the solver would be useful, as the decision tree is much smaller and can be computed much faster.
    Yup. It's like icm push/fold models 10 years ago. At some point no one cared if someone ran those live. It was expected and anyone decent had good idea without cheating.

    Rivers are more than 10k times faster than flops to solve. At this point at certain level you should expect people have done their homework or they are cheating. Either way that's not where your edge is.

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    im not going to bother crunching numbers but rainbow table implementations would likely solve any efficiency concerns regarding decision trees here, just like they did for 30 years of now obsolete encryption standards.

    actually i want to roll this back for two reasons;

    1) this might hold true for limit games but for pot/no limit its likely just not true

    2) neural networks address these sorts of weaknesses far better than the solution i proposed
    Last edited by sonatine; 02-18-2020 at 05:04 AM.
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    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    im not going to bother crunching numbers but rainbow table implementations would likely solve any efficiency concerns regarding decision trees here, just like they did for 30 years of now obsolete encryption standards.

    actually i want to roll this back for two reasons;

    1) this might hold true for limit games but for pot/no limit its likely just not true

    2) neural networks address these sorts of weaknesses far better than the solution i proposed
    If you could harness one of those Icelandic warehouses full of GPUs just for this challenge, maybe you could achieve real time results with a small team of operators using publicly available software. It's just not cost efficient. At this rate though it's not that many years.

    ps. It's not completely outlandish that there is private software out there that can achieve this with much less power. Still it's far more likely that Galfond was just outmatched by someone that had been using the state of the art analytic tools for the last five years and for unknown reasons Galfond offered 2-1 odds with nothing to back that.

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    100% Organic MumblesBadly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Not sure if you're trolling here, but Galfond should take all the precautions he can, such as having the guy on camera while they play.

    Still not 100% foolproof but if he has two camera angles (one on the screen and one on the guy), that would eliminate a lot of the cheating possibilities.

    At a match of this size, you can't be too careful.
    Not trolling. Phil has ZERO leverage here.

    He Probably should have negotiated this before the challenge if he wanted cameras. Its too late now. Guy doesnt have to agree to anything new.

    If the guy was using nothing and Phil asked him to go on camera and the guy still kicked his ass Phil would look like a paranoid fool.

    On the flip side the guy could be using “legal” software and have good methods and doesn’t want to give secrets away.

    Imagine being the guy who owns a poker site/ training site getting his ass kicked and then asking for the guy to play on camera. Such a terrible look.

    In the end whatever site they are playing on should be scanning to make sure nothing shadys going on. If they can’t detect anything then thats it.

    Its online poker. Anything goes nowadays. Expect the worst or do not challenge the world to zillion dollar matches
    What if in the interim of days off that Galfond is taking that he decides that VeniVidi was possibly cheating and has his poker site manager lock the suspect’s account from being able to withdraw any winnings? While I think this is unlikely, it sure would generate some ridic fireworks in the poker community.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post

    Not trolling. Phil has ZERO leverage here.

    He Probably should have negotiated this before the challenge if he wanted cameras. Its too late now. Guy doesnt have to agree to anything new.

    If the guy was using nothing and Phil asked him to go on camera and the guy still kicked his ass Phil would look like a paranoid fool.

    On the flip side the guy could be using “legal” software and have good methods and doesn’t want to give secrets away.

    Imagine being the guy who owns a poker site/ training site getting his ass kicked and then asking for the guy to play on camera. Such a terrible look.

    In the end whatever site they are playing on should be scanning to make sure nothing shadys going on. If they can’t detect anything then thats it.

    Its online poker. Anything goes nowadays. Expect the worst or do not challenge the world to zillion dollar matches
    What if in the interim of days off that Galfond is taking that he decides that VeniVidi was possibly cheating and has his poker site manager lock the suspect’s account from being able to withdraw any winnings? While I think this is unlikely, it sure would generate some ridic fireworks in the poker community.
    I'm wondering if there is any real money on deposit there, or if they just have a trusted third party escrowing. Hard to believe they would bother with the hassle of physically transferring all that money onto the site (plus all the payment processing expense).

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    Quote Originally Posted by MumblesBadly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post

    Not trolling. Phil has ZERO leverage here.

    He Probably should have negotiated this before the challenge if he wanted cameras. Its too late now. Guy doesnt have to agree to anything new.

    If the guy was using nothing and Phil asked him to go on camera and the guy still kicked his ass Phil would look like a paranoid fool.

    On the flip side the guy could be using “legal” software and have good methods and doesn’t want to give secrets away.

    Imagine being the guy who owns a poker site/ training site getting his ass kicked and then asking for the guy to play on camera. Such a terrible look.

    In the end whatever site they are playing on should be scanning to make sure nothing shadys going on. If they can’t detect anything then thats it.

    Its online poker. Anything goes nowadays. Expect the worst or do not challenge the world to zillion dollar matches
    What if in the interim of days off that Galfond is taking that he decides that VeniVidi was possibly cheating and has his poker site manager lock the suspect’s account from being able to withdraw any winnings? While I think this is unlikely, it sure would generate some ridic fireworks in the poker community.
    I would be truly shocked if Galfond tried to play this card. I have a ton of respect for him and would lose all of it unless he had some sort of smoking gun evidence that VeniVidi was actually super-using™ him somehow (solver wouldn't do it).

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Given that it's Galfond's own site, he would never accuse VeniVidi of cheating, as this would cause more than $1m of reputation damage to his site, even if he saved the $1m in not paying VeniVidi. Also many would accuse him of being a welcher or a sore loser. Furthermore, it is very unlikely VeniVidi is cheating, as he would need an inside man to pull this off.

    Highly unlikely scenario, and I doubt Phil is even considering it.

  12. #72
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Only watched a little of this so far, but Joey told me he asked two of my questions (the one about Chance Kornuth and the one about ActionFreak):


  13. #73
    How Could You? WillieMcFML's Avatar
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    phil for some reason agreed to some conditions that favor solvers

    like resetting to 200bb stacks for example

    it's like veni was phil ivey & the chinese chick playing baccarat and the casino (galfond) agreed to all his conditions
    Hi Lew!!!

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    Diamond Sloppy Joe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    im not going to bother crunching numbers but rainbow table implementations would likely solve any efficiency concerns regarding decision trees here, just like they did for 30 years of now obsolete encryption standards.

    actually i want to roll this back for two reasons;

    1) this might hold true for limit games but for pot/no limit its likely just not true

    2) neural networks address these sorts of weaknesses far better than the solution i proposed


    Am in a business analytics graduate course doing a project for a data warehousing class in this very subject.

    Had this very thought as project was introduced.
    PokerFraudAlert...will never censor your claims, even if they're against one of our sponsors. In addition to providing you an open forum report fraud within the poker community, we will also analyze your claims with a clear head an unbiased point of view. And, of course, the accused will always have the floor to defend themselves.-Dan Druff

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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      Zap_the_Fractions_Giraffe: i don't like Phil Galfond because he wears glasses

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Challenge to resume at 8am PST on Wednesday.

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    Gold MrTickle's Avatar
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    He won! Up 183k. Down 716 overall.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrTickle View Post
    He won! Up 183k. Down 716 overall.
    That's a big win.

    I wonder if Phil has friends study Veni's play and they came up with a new game plan.

    Guess we will see what happens going forward.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MrTickle View Post
    He won! Up 183k. Down 716 overall.
    That's a big win.

    I wonder if Phil has friends study Veni's play and they came up with a new game plan.

    Guess we will see what happens going forward.
    1000000000000%...

    think I said this earlier in the thread...thought he would be working with sauce or some of his RIO PLO teachers to get his game up to speed...obviously that didn't look like it happened in the first 10K hands, but I would have to think he had guys like that pouring over the first 10K hands trying to figure out a plan of attack...

    even if he only manages to hack off 100-200K off of the loss that 20K he spent in penalty days would be money well spent if he used that time to really break down veni's game...

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    -20K today?

    Not bad, and if he can win 50+K the next session that would be great momentum!

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