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Thread: So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

  1. #12401
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Druff is weaponizing the mask issue for his political purposes but the CDC was crushed by Trump. Not gonna get too involved with this.

    Bush began pandemic planning so this isn’t always a political story with regards to the CDC.
    Are you prepared to back up your claims or just repeat media rhetoric?

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  2. #12402
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Druff is weaponizing the mask issue for his political purposes but the CDC was crushed by Trump. Not gonna get too involved with this.

    Bush began pandemic planning so this isn’t always a political story with regards to the CDC.
    Are you prepared to back up your claims or just repeat media rhetoric?

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    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/tr...pandemic-team/

    "Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it" and that was in 2018.

    https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/bi...cuts-in-china/

    "But that story said CDC’s staff in China “has shrunk to around 14 staffers, down from approximately 47 people since President Donald Trump took office in January 2017,” citing CDC documents."

    If it helps, Biden said something wrong in the bit above. I think that fills my quota for playing Whac-A-Mole with stupid for today.

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    Bronze Daniel72's Avatar
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    Winner of the $555 freeroll

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    CORONAVIRUS IS GOD

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    DOOMERS SEETH HARDER AND COPE

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    Lol Dewine is doing a million dollar lottery for those vaccinated and free college lottery for kids. Mandates gone in 3 weeks but same for me, have been without mask for a long time already everywhere I go,

    This asshole is crazy.
    Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.

    Ronald Reagan

  7. #12407
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The CDC didn't fail in the US for lack of funding.

    It was never an issue of, "If only we had more manpower, we could have..." or "If only we had more funding, we could have..."

    The CDC's problem was that they were too political. In a curious situation which I still don't understand, the CDC was even acting as a leftist tool under Trump, despite it being led by one of his Republican appointees. (I blame both the appointee and Trump for being lazy and letting the lefty scientists there run wild.)

    Remember the ridiculousness when the CDC advocated the vaccination based upon "racial equity" more than age? They actually wanted 25-year-old grocery workers in the same priority group as non-nursing-home 95-yerar-olds. These reccomendations were eventually discarded by most states, including some blue ones, when the pandemic worsened over the early winter. These recommendations ran counter to what every other first world country did, by the way.

    The CDC also released absurd recommendations regarding masking and gathering post-vaccination, and let the teachers union bully them into forcing school closures far beyond what the science backed.

    Also, as I already explained in recent posts, the CDC did a horrible job communicating the main way of avoiding COVID -- simply staying away from indoor spaces as much as possible. That should have been the loud message over and over. Instead, we constantly heard about masking, which confused people as to the true cause of so many people catching it, and inadvertently encouraged reckless behavior.

    I lost a tremendous amount of respect for the CDC over the past year, and now realize they have been infected by politics, and cannot be trusted. This is really bad, because they are a very important government organization, and should be completely apolitical. Unfortunately, the scientific community is under the heavy boot of the extreme left, to where anyone who questions the existing political narrative is ostracized. While global warming exists and is important to carefully study, you're not allowed to even slightly stray from the existing rigid conclusions about it. If you dare attempt to study the harmfulness of kids transitioning genders, you are labeled a horrible bigot and your career is dead. If you dare question the effectiveness of masking, you are labeled a COVID denier and your career is dead. Science should be curious, and never political.

    In short, the CDC allowed themselves to stray from the actual science of the matter, and became a tool for Democrats to attempt to first beat Trump, and then later push expensive relief bills which required crisis mode to still be in effect.

    They suck.

     
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  8. #12408
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Fucked up early testing, huh?

    You mean the tests which were (and still are) 70% effective at best?

    You mean the tests which would have been impossible to administer at the speed required to prevent the spread of a super-contagious virus at the beginning of the pandemic?

    Still trying to understand how a test with a 30% false negative rate is going to stop a super-contagious virus. Also I'm trying to figure out how you get people tested before they're contagious, since the most contagious days are the two BEFORE symptoms appear.

    Oh, and apparently PCR tests have an even higher false negative rate before symptoms begin -- as high as 67%, and as high as 38% just as symptoms show up.

    Did they figure out how to test people with 0% false negatives in Finland? Or are you just talking out your ass again?
    Well we've already been through this testing crap before. Including the toddler version how contact tracing gets ahead of the virus.

    There are very few tests for anything that are 100% accurate. User error in administering the test being the most common bringing the average down and window period being the other.

    Since this time around you seem to be interested in strawman arguments the bolded line above is one of those. After 40 years this is where hiv testing is at, "The window period for a 4th generation antigen/antibody test is about four weeks. By this time 95% of infections will be detected".

    And still testing saves lives.

    We use testing to inform us of what mitigating policy decisions are appropriate for any given time and place. Mandates for social distancing such as closing of schools, businesses or travel restrictions.

    You don't need an accurate number for it and you never have an accurate number for it. Analysts are always forced to extrapolate off something. Test, it's accuracy, availability, people that wont get tested and other shit depending on the virus. When it comes to mitigating something you're always better off by having access to test infected instead going by probable cause of death.

    The Trump Death Clock was/is based on starting the mitigation one week earlier than you did. Seven days. Your usual strawman here is months. Seven days matters with exponential growth a lot. Masking and physical distancing were never part of that equation.
    As usual, the above is a lot of rambling which really says nothing.

    Contact tracing is ineffective for a highly contagious, pre-symptomatic-spreading virus, unless it's at the very very very beginning, to where you're dealing with extremely few cases. Once you're past that, it's useless. You can babble all you want about how that isn't true, but there's simply no way to contact trace your way out of something like COVID, unless you find Patient Zero and track down every possible person they would have come into contact with.

    Of course all tests aren't 100% accurate. However, there's a huge difference between "not 100% accurate" and "67% false negatives". The latter is useless when it comes to preventing the mass spread of a highly infectious disease.

    COVID tests become more accurate several days after clear symptoms have shown up. The tests are somewhat useful for individuals to verify they actually have COVID, and not another illness. They are virtually useless to contain the spread, because most of the contagiousness occurs when people don't know they have it yet, and testing at that point produces a staggering amount of false negatives (as high as 67%).

    Yes, testing can be used to inform public policy to a degree, but the public policy pushed by the left (shutdown of outdoor spaces) was a disaster, so more testing wouldn't have helped that. We didn't make mistakes in public policy because of lack of knowledge of how bad the spread was. We knew it was bad from near the very beginning, and in fact we overcorrected certain areas (outdoor spaces) while failing to properly warn the danger of indoor spaces.

    I realize that these facts are inconvenient for guys like you who want to blame Trump for all of this, but the "Trump didn't test and contact trace enough" narrative is so 2020, and has pretty much died on the vine because it's so absurd, and defies simple mathematics and epidemiology. Guess you didn't get the memo.

    So the media has moved on to "Trump caused this because he didn't encourage masking enough", but I guess you can't stick to that one anymore because you admitted a few days ago that cloth masks aren't very useful.

    Sorry, but it's time for you to admit that the US would have had similar results with or without Trump. It's also time for you to admit that the CDC, media, and Democrats fucked up by pushing the masking narrative so hard, when the focus should have been upon practicing avoidance of indoor spaces.

    Now that we're coming near the (hopeful) end in the US, it's become painfully clear that the Democrats didn't follow the science.

    Of course, you're still among like 5 people in the world who think Andrew Cuomo did a good job, so I don't even know why I bother debating with you.

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  10. #12410
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    the media has created a bunch of liberal loon hypochondriacs

  11. #12411
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    DEFINITELY ABOUT A VIRUS YALL AND NOT COMPLIANCE

  12. #12412
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Well we've already been through this testing crap before. Including the toddler version how contact tracing gets ahead of the virus.

    There are very few tests for anything that are 100% accurate. User error in administering the test being the most common bringing the average down and window period being the other.

    Since this time around you seem to be interested in strawman arguments the bolded line above is one of those. After 40 years this is where hiv testing is at, "The window period for a 4th generation antigen/antibody test is about four weeks. By this time 95% of infections will be detected".

    And still testing saves lives.

    We use testing to inform us of what mitigating policy decisions are appropriate for any given time and place. Mandates for social distancing such as closing of schools, businesses or travel restrictions.

    You don't need an accurate number for it and you never have an accurate number for it. Analysts are always forced to extrapolate off something. Test, it's accuracy, availability, people that wont get tested and other shit depending on the virus. When it comes to mitigating something you're always better off by having access to test infected instead going by probable cause of death.

    The Trump Death Clock was/is based on starting the mitigation one week earlier than you did. Seven days. Your usual strawman here is months. Seven days matters with exponential growth a lot. Masking and physical distancing were never part of that equation.
    As usual, the above is a lot of rambling which really says nothing.

    Contact tracing is ineffective for a highly contagious, pre-symptomatic-spreading virus, unless it's at the very very very beginning, to where you're dealing with extremely few cases. Once you're past that, it's useless. You can babble all you want about how that isn't true, but there's simply no way to contact trace your way out of something like COVID, unless you find Patient Zero and track down every possible person they would have come into contact with.

    Of course all tests aren't 100% accurate. However, there's a huge difference between "not 100% accurate" and "67% false negatives". The latter is useless when it comes to preventing the mass spread of a highly infectious disease.

    COVID tests become more accurate several days after clear symptoms have shown up. The tests are somewhat useful for individuals to verify they actually have COVID, and not another illness. They are virtually useless to contain the spread, because most of the contagiousness occurs when people don't know they have it yet, and testing at that point produces a staggering amount of false negatives (as high as 67%).

    Yes, testing can be used to inform public policy to a degree, but the public policy pushed by the left (shutdown of outdoor spaces) was a disaster, so more testing wouldn't have helped that. We didn't make mistakes in public policy because of lack of knowledge of how bad the spread was. We knew it was bad from near the very beginning, and in fact we overcorrected certain areas (outdoor spaces) while failing to properly warn the danger of indoor spaces.

    I realize that these facts are inconvenient for guys like you who want to blame Trump for all of this, but the "Trump didn't test and contact trace enough" narrative is so 2020, and has pretty much died on the vine because it's so absurd, and defies simple mathematics and epidemiology. Guess you didn't get the memo.

    So the media has moved on to "Trump caused this because he didn't encourage masking enough", but I guess you can't stick to that one anymore because you admitted a few days ago that cloth masks aren't very useful.

    Sorry, but it's time for you to admit that the US would have had similar results with or without Trump. It's also time for you to admit that the CDC, media, and Democrats fucked up by pushing the masking narrative so hard, when the focus should have been upon practicing avoidance of indoor spaces.

    Now that we're coming near the (hopeful) end in the US, it's become painfully clear that the Democrats didn't follow the science.

    Of course, you're still among like 5 people in the world who think Andrew Cuomo did a good job, so I don't even know why I bother debating with you.
    Yea i have no idea why you bother debating this either. It's fairly clear you know very little about mathematics, physics or how they relate to virology.

    Patient zero didn't show up at the same time in every community in the US. Literally no one gives a fuck about finding patient zero in the US.

    If testing is so useless, why have you been testing millions of people again? Just for fun.

    I guess i could let you have, it was all because of Trump claim, that i've never made, but i'm not that nice. There's few dozen reasons why you failed so hard. Doubt there's any use to go through them since you either don't understand their impact now or just prefer to stay oblivious.

    This is what i said about cloth masks 6 months ago...

    "All masks aren't created equal and none of them work unless you follow a very basic hygiene protocol.

    Most fashionable cloth masks only stop droplets that carry Covid. They don't filter Covid. Those particles are too small. Meaning if you have Covid, the mask stops it and then slowly when droplets vaporize the Covid particles will spread. Without droplets it's not a dense projectile. Most of the time it's just gone with the wind. Viral load just isn't big enough to infect anyone with normal immunity response."

    Same thread about a month after you were willing to bet that US wouldn't rack up another 100k dead before the end of year. Remind me again how did that work out? Obviously you owned up to your mistake and didn't blame unforeseen circumstances or something as stupid.

  13. #12413
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    As usual, the above is a lot of rambling which really says nothing.

    Contact tracing is ineffective for a highly contagious, pre-symptomatic-spreading virus, unless it's at the very very very beginning, to where you're dealing with extremely few cases. Once you're past that, it's useless. You can babble all you want about how that isn't true, but there's simply no way to contact trace your way out of something like COVID, unless you find Patient Zero and track down every possible person they would have come into contact with.

    Of course all tests aren't 100% accurate. However, there's a huge difference between "not 100% accurate" and "67% false negatives". The latter is useless when it comes to preventing the mass spread of a highly infectious disease.

    COVID tests become more accurate several days after clear symptoms have shown up. The tests are somewhat useful for individuals to verify they actually have COVID, and not another illness. They are virtually useless to contain the spread, because most of the contagiousness occurs when people don't know they have it yet, and testing at that point produces a staggering amount of false negatives (as high as 67%).

    Yes, testing can be used to inform public policy to a degree, but the public policy pushed by the left (shutdown of outdoor spaces) was a disaster, so more testing wouldn't have helped that. We didn't make mistakes in public policy because of lack of knowledge of how bad the spread was. We knew it was bad from near the very beginning, and in fact we overcorrected certain areas (outdoor spaces) while failing to properly warn the danger of indoor spaces.

    I realize that these facts are inconvenient for guys like you who want to blame Trump for all of this, but the "Trump didn't test and contact trace enough" narrative is so 2020, and has pretty much died on the vine because it's so absurd, and defies simple mathematics and epidemiology. Guess you didn't get the memo.

    So the media has moved on to "Trump caused this because he didn't encourage masking enough", but I guess you can't stick to that one anymore because you admitted a few days ago that cloth masks aren't very useful.

    Sorry, but it's time for you to admit that the US would have had similar results with or without Trump. It's also time for you to admit that the CDC, media, and Democrats fucked up by pushing the masking narrative so hard, when the focus should have been upon practicing avoidance of indoor spaces.

    Now that we're coming near the (hopeful) end in the US, it's become painfully clear that the Democrats didn't follow the science.

    Of course, you're still among like 5 people in the world who think Andrew Cuomo did a good job, so I don't even know why I bother debating with you.
    Yea i have no idea why you bother debating this either. It's fairly clear you know very little about mathematics, physics or how they relate to virology.

    Patient zero didn't show up at the same time in every community in the US. Literally no one gives a fuck about finding patient zero in the US.

    If testing is so useless, why have you been testing millions of people again? Just for fun.

    I guess i could let you have, it was all because of Trump claim, that i've never made, but i'm not that nice. There's few dozen reasons why you failed so hard. Doubt there's any use to go through them since you either don't understand their impact now or just prefer to stay oblivious.

    This is what i said about cloth masks 6 months ago...

    "All masks aren't created equal and none of them work unless you follow a very basic hygiene protocol.

    Most fashionable cloth masks only stop droplets that carry Covid. They don't filter Covid. Those particles are too small. Meaning if you have Covid, the mask stops it and then slowly when droplets vaporize the Covid particles will spread. Without droplets it's not a dense projectile. Most of the time it's just gone with the wind. Viral load just isn't big enough to infect anyone with normal immunity response."

    Same thread about a month after you were willing to bet that US wouldn't rack up another 100k dead before the end of year. Remind me again how did that work out? Obviously you owned up to your mistake and didn't blame unforeseen circumstances or something as stupid.
    cause it's the only way of reminding people that there's an alleged pandemic happening, otherwise no body would notice or care, and testing is now a 50 billion dollar a year industry, you think they'll ever stop pushing testing now?

    testing is a joke

  14. #12414
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    Two articles that roughly outline your specific failure...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/u...avirus-us.html

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ailure/614191/

    ...many many words. That tends to happen if you aim for something truthful. I assume Druff spends the time it would take to read either of them to create another wall of text based on memes and "common sense".

    “This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

    "Although the disease first arrived in the U.S. in mid-January, genetic evidence shows that the specific viruses that triggered the first big outbreaks, in Washington State, didn’t land until mid-February."... this shit about 10k times when you start talking about specific communities that are closed enough to be considered separate for spread and containment starting from different states, cities and towns. Growth in all of them is exponential, but it correlates mostly to local cases. There's only a small ripple effect from cases across the country.

    "Diagnostic tests are easy to make, so the U.S. failing to create one seemed inconceivable. Worse, it had no Plan B. Private labs were strangled by FDA bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Sabeti’s lab developed a diagnostic test in mid-January and sent it to colleagues in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Senegal. “We had working diagnostics in those countries well before we did in any U.S. states,” she told me."

  15. #12415
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Two articles that roughly outline your specific failure...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/u...avirus-us.html

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ailure/614191/

    ...many many words. That tends to happen if you aim for something truthful. I assume Druff spends the time it would take to read either of them to create another wall of text based on memes and "common sense".

    “This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

    "Although the disease first arrived in the U.S. in mid-January, genetic evidence shows that the specific viruses that triggered the first big outbreaks, in Washington State, didn’t land until mid-February."... this shit about 10k times when you start talking about specific communities that are closed enough to be considered separate for spread and containment starting from different states, cities and towns. Growth in all of them is exponential, but it correlates mostly to local cases. There's only a small ripple effect from cases across the country.

    "Diagnostic tests are easy to make, so the U.S. failing to create one seemed inconceivable. Worse, it had no Plan B. Private labs were strangled by FDA bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Sabeti’s lab developed a diagnostic test in mid-January and sent it to colleagues in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Senegal. “We had working diagnostics in those countries well before we did in any U.S. states,” she told me."
    THE VIRUS CAME FROM A LAB! DEAL WITH IT

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    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...st-study-finds

    "A study of COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths from March to December 2020 finds that a greater number occurred in states led by Republican governors.
    The study suggests that the less stringent remediation measures taken by Republican governors have likely led to the imbalance."

    I'm sure it's just a coincidence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...st-study-finds

    "A study of COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths from March to December 2020 finds that a greater number occurred in states led by Republican governors.
    The study suggests that the less stringent remediation measures taken by Republican governors have likely led to the imbalance."

    I'm sure it's just a coincidence.
    ROFL, what's that statistic now?

  18. #12418
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...st-study-finds

    "A study of COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths from March to December 2020 finds that a greater number occurred in states led by Republican governors.
    The study suggests that the less stringent remediation measures taken by Republican governors have likely led to the imbalance."

    I'm sure it's just a coincidence.
    ROFL, what's that statistic now?
    If i knew, i'd have posted that instead. These things take time.

    Doubt it's the gotcha you think it is. When people do the science thing, they do stuff like below.

    "The authors of the study write that they adjusted for state population density, rurality, Census region, age, race, ethnicity, poverty, number of physicians, obesity, cardiovascular disease, asthma, smoking, and presidential voting in 2020."

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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    ROFL, what's that statistic now?
    If i knew, i'd have posted that instead. These things take time.

    Doubt it's the gotcha you think it is. When people do the science thing, they do stuff like below.

    "The authors of the study write that they adjusted for state population density, rurality, Census region, age, race, ethnicity, poverty, number of physicians, obesity, cardiovascular disease, asthma, smoking, and presidential voting in 2020."

  20. #12420
    Puts His Dick in the Mashed Potatoes
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    Arrow

    Y'all can stop kvetching.

    The CDC just dropped the mask mandate for the fully vaccinated.

    Have fun catching covid anti-vaxxers. I'm done worrying about you batshit crazy weirdos.

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