Originally Posted by
BetCheckBet
Was looking at numbers today and it’s clear that Canada and USA are on two completely different paths. Initially trajectories looked very similar. The difference was Canada didn’t half ass it, well maybe Quebec. But USA numbers are a nightmare right now. Prepare for death numbers to go up in about a week as they lag behind new cases. I’d be fucking pissed if I was an America you guys shut down you economy but do such a half asses job you don’t even fix the problem...
Unfortunately Canada will have no choice but to keep our border closed to you for the next several months.
This situation is so impossible to get a read on. We had more new cases yesterday than we’ve had in six weeks, but we’ve consistently had high cases that were maybe 75% of peak throughout this entire period where deaths have dropped every week.
I’m curious what you’re seeing that point to a wave of death beyond the new cases? Clearly some of them will result in deaths, but I had predicted we’d be at 3-4K a day by now, yet we are going down.
It begs the questions how many new cases we actually had back when testing was sparse? Had to be 100k a day. We read so many accounts of people being unable to get a test and the illness eventually getting worse and then death.
Now you can get one at any urgent care, some doctors offices, and it’s now a first line test they’re going to in order to rule it out.
Before they weren’t giving tests out unless they were going to admit you and you were deathly ill. Even then, many people couldn’t get them. You know our medical industrial complex here. We were caught on our heels, but once they saw money was to be made, there is a proliferation of tests.
So I don’t know what to make of any of it yet? About the only thing I can say is with all these positive tests coming in every day, we are going to be able to nail down exactly how deadly this is. We are going to get a real sample size now that you don’t have to be ER imminent to get a test.
Florida is on fire. If it gets into their nursing homes and with their elderly population, if there isn’t New York numbers in a few weeks, I have to think the virus has weakened or that there is something going on we still don’t understand. Whatever is happening, go back and look at all the 20-25k new case days that happened 3 weeks ago and watch deaths drop every week. It’s inexplicable to me. If we were treading water it would be one thing, but we’ve dropped week after week.
All bets are off for fall though. Looking at history, with all these new cases circulating, it could be a massive number if cool weather amplifies the illness associated with it, which it historically has with viruses.