So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[sonatine]

Was looking at numbers today and it’s clear that Canada and USA are on two completely different paths. Initially trajectories looked very similar. The difference was Canada didn’t half ass it, well maybe Quebec. But USA numbers are a nightmare right now. Prepare for death numbers to go up in about a week as they lag behind new cases. I’d be fucking pissed if I was an America you guys shut down you economy but do such a half asses job you don’t even fix the problem...

Unfortunately Canada will have no choice but to keep our border closed to you for the next several months.

This situation is so impossible to get a read on. We had more new cases yesterday than we’ve had in six weeks, but we’ve consistently had high cases that were maybe 75% of peak throughout this entire period where deaths have dropped every week.

I’m curious what you’re seeing that point to a wave of death beyond the new cases? Clearly some of them will result in deaths, but I had predicted we’d be at 3-4K a day by now, yet we are going down.

It begs the questions how many new cases we actually had back when testing was sparse? Had to be 100k a day. We read so many accounts of people being unable to get a test and the illness eventually getting worse and then death.

Now you can get one at any urgent care, some doctors offices, and it’s now a first line test they’re going to in order to rule it out.

Before they weren’t giving tests out unless they were going to admit you and you were deathly ill. Even then, many people couldn’t get them. You know our medical industrial complex here. We were caught on our heels, but once they saw money was to be made, there is a proliferation of tests.

So I don’t know what to make of any of it yet? About the only thing I can say is with all these positive tests coming in every day, we are going to be able to nail down exactly how deadly this is. We are going to get a real sample size now that you don’t have to be ER imminent to get a test.

Florida is on fire. If it gets into their nursing homes and with their elderly population, if there isn’t New York numbers in a few weeks, I have to think the virus has weakened or that there is something going on we still don’t understand. Whatever is happening, go back and look at all the 20-25k new case days that happened 3 weeks ago and watch deaths drop every week. It’s inexplicable to me. If we were treading water it would be one thing, but we’ve dropped week after week.

All bets are off for fall though. Looking at history, with all these new cases circulating, it could be a massive number if cool weather amplifies the illness associated with it, which it historically has with viruses.

worth noting from a data perspective that a disproportionate number of new cases are young people and young people are also getting tested more.

so the skew between death count and infection rate is in fact accurate, but logically there should be a surge in secondary infection deaths starting after a 2 week incubation + 1 week illness window.

[OSA]

This situation is so impossible to get a read on. We had more new cases yesterday than we’ve had in six weeks, but we’ve consistently had high cases that were maybe 75% of peak throughout this entire period where deaths have dropped every week.

I’m curious what you’re seeing that point to a wave of death beyond the new cases? Clearly some of them will result in deaths, but I had predicted we’d be at 3-4K a day by now, yet we are going down.

It begs the questions how many new cases we actually had back when testing was sparse? Had to be 100k a day. We read so many accounts of people being unable to get a test and the illness eventually getting worse and then death.

Now you can get one at any urgent care, some doctors offices, and it’s now a first line test they’re going to in order to rule it out.

Before they weren’t giving tests out unless they were going to admit you and you were deathly ill. Even then, many people couldn’t get them. You know our medical industrial complex here. We were caught on our heels, but once they saw money was to be made, there is a proliferation of tests.

So I don’t know what to make of any of it yet? About the only thing I can say is with all these positive tests coming in every day, we are going to be able to nail down exactly how deadly this is. We are going to get a real sample size now that you don’t have to be ER imminent to get a test.

Florida is on fire. If it gets into their nursing homes and with their elderly population, if there isn’t New York numbers in a few weeks, I have to think the virus has weakened or that there is something going on we still don’t understand. Whatever is happening, go back and look at all the 20-25k new case days that happened 3 weeks ago and watch deaths drop every week. It’s inexplicable to me. If we were treading water it would be one thing, but we’ve dropped week after week.

All bets are off for fall though. Looking at history, with all these new cases circulating, it could be a massive number if cool weather amplifies the illness associated with it, which it historically has with viruses.

worth noting from a data perspective that a disproportionate number of new cases are young people and young people are also getting tested more.

so the skew between death count and infection rate is in fact accurate, but logically there should be a surge in secondary infection deaths starting after a 2 week incubation + 1 week illness window.

Except that wont happen. Chad, the 21 yr old lacrosse player who occasionally has one of his bros suck him off before a game in order to "get him focused and its not gay at all" will kick this faster than his 86 yr old grandfather Morty.

[sonatine]

several florida hospitals ran out of ICU beds today.

[SPIT this]

several florida hospitals ran out of ICU beds today.

A lot of these old people think these old folks will go away in the summer, with the heat

[BCR]

several florida hospitals ran out of ICU beds today.

If Daly still reads the thread I was curious what his wife was seeing. I though about it after I read article that Florida has nearly 8k positive tests in last two days.

Up here. I know a guy whose wife was ill, and they told her we are putting you in our Covid wing and she about flipped, and they were like relax, it’s because we released our last Covid patient days ago. It was completely empty.

[sonatine]

[duped_samaritan]

Florida and Texas in similar spots. Covid numbers, geographically, politically and population wise.

Much different the spot NYC area was in in April though. Hopefully it just levels off where it is for a while.

[Tellafriend]

[Daly]

several florida hospitals ran out of ICU beds today.

If Daly still reads the thread I was curious what his wife was seeing. I though about it after I read article that Florida has nearly 8k positive tests in last two days.

Up here. I know a guy whose wife was ill, and they told her we are putting you in our Covid wing and she about flipped, and they were like relax, it’s because we released our last Covid patient days ago. It was completely empty.

I’ll know better Monday. There has been an uptick in cases.

The one nuance that isn’t being talked about is the average age of people confirmed positive is falling like a rock. Before the tests when they were in much shorter supply were reserved for people at risk, mainly 45 +. Now “kids” have symptoms and they giving them the test to confirm and send them home for quarantine.

Truth is in the middle I’d expect. Real incremental change in net new cases but not “skyrocketing” as some would tell you.

Nobody is interested in details within the numbers though so what’s it matter.

[OSA]

You losers are clutching at pearls, while I am looking @ $96 RT flights to Vegas in October.

[simpdog]

You losers are clutching at pearls, while I am looking @ $96 RT flights to Vegas in October.

If you're looking for October maybe just book a one way flight

[BetCheckBet]

Spent an hour and a half in line today to get tested. Testing centre like right out of a movie.

I have slight cough and sore throat (normally would not even contemplate staying home) but with strict regulations at work I can;t come in until I get a negative test (which is totally reasonable). Had to get both throat and nose swabs. Throat swab was worst because its ten seconds and causes gagging. Nose is only 3 seconds but causes eyes to tear up. As health care worker I'll be fast tracked and hopefully have results tomorrow. I feel pretty safe but things gonna really suck if i have to isolate for 2 weeks.

[OSA]

Spent an hour and a half in line today to get tested. Testing centre like right out of a movie.

I have slight cough and sore throat (normally would not even contemplate staying home) but with strict regulations at work I can;t come in until I get a negative test (which is totally reasonable). Had to get both throat and nose swabs. Throat swab was worst because its ten seconds and causes gagging. Nose is only 3 seconds but causes eyes to tear up. As health care worker I'll be fast tracked and hopefully have results tomorrow. I feel pretty safe but things gonna really suck if i have to isolate for 2 weeks.

Aww sweetie, that's the best part. Some say that's the actual payoff.

[BetCheckBet]

Was looking at numbers today and it’s clear that Canada and USA are on two completely different paths. Initially trajectories looked very similar. The difference was Canada didn’t half ass it, well maybe Quebec. But USA numbers are a nightmare right now. Prepare for death numbers to go up in about a week as they lag behind new cases. I’d be fucking pissed if I was an America you guys shut down you economy but do such a half asses job you don’t even fix the problem...

Unfortunately Canada will have no choice but to keep our border closed to you for the next several months.

This situation is so impossible to get a read on. We had more new cases yesterday than we’ve had in six weeks, but we’ve consistently had high cases that were maybe 75% of peak throughout this entire period where deaths have dropped every week.

I’m curious what you’re seeing that point to a wave of death beyond the new cases? Clearly some of them will result in deaths, but I had predicted we’d be at 3-4K a day by now, yet we are going down.

It begs the questions how many new cases we actually had back when testing was sparse? Had to be 100k a day. We read so many accounts of people being unable to get a test and the illness eventually getting worse and then death.

Now you can get one at any urgent care, some doctors offices, and it’s now a first line test they’re going to in order to rule it out.

Before they weren’t giving tests out unless they were going to admit you and you were deathly ill. Even then, many people couldn’t get them. You know our medical industrial complex here. We were caught on our heels, but once they saw money was to be made, there is a proliferation of tests.

So I don’t know what to make of any of it yet? About the only thing I can say is with all these positive tests coming in every day, we are going to be able to nail down exactly how deadly this is. We are going to get a real sample size now that you don’t have to be ER imminent to get a test.

Florida is on fire. If it gets into their nursing homes and with their elderly population, if there isn’t New York numbers in a few weeks, I have to think the virus has weakened or that there is something going on we still don’t understand. Whatever is happening, go back and look at all the 20-25k new case days that happened 3 weeks ago and watch deaths drop every week. It’s inexplicable to me. If we were treading water it would be one thing, but we’ve dropped week after week.

All bets are off for fall though. Looking at history, with all these new cases circulating, it could be a massive number if cool weather amplifies the illness associated with it, which it historically has with viruses.

The problem is look at the USA pattern and then look at the other major countries that are getting out of this. They are completely different (with new cases less than 10% of their peak in all below).

UK near complete recovery (they were supposed to be horrible)
Canada near complete recovery
Spain barely anything
Italy barely anything
Germany nearly done
France barely anything.

USA completely different, the curve going back up again and they barely hit 50% of peak new cases. It wasn;t supposed to fucking work this way (I never understood the 3k deaths per day stat it didn;t make sense to me).

The countries still struggling are shitholes as Trump would call them (no offense Russia).

I supposed you can say that every other country in the world doesn;t have proper testing but the USA. But that;s kinda hard to believe. All the countries mentioned above not having hospital occupancy issues.
Nearly every developed country has long passed the hump.

I don;t know how bad fatalities will be (the nursing homes not being ready accounts for 50% of deaths). If that's actually taken care of its a different ball game this time around. I've also said from the start that fatality rates were below 1%. But its also turned out to be more contagious than first thought.

[BetCheckBet]

Also right on cue EU banning Americans along with brazillians and Russians due to failures to contain COVID 19.

[abrown83]

BCR pointed this out in a different post but all that really matters is the death count.

Cases are spiking!!!! Ohhh but ignore the fact that we are now testing 5x as many people as we were a few weeks ago. If deaths continue the downward trend then case counts are irrelevant if they start to spike back up in the next couple weeks then we have something to talk about.

[duped_samaritan]

Also right on cue EU banning Americans along with brazillians and Russians due to failures to contain COVID 19.

Some options that Trump will consider in response:

- Ban Euros first.
- Accuse the democrats of colluding with the EU to steal the election.
- Cancel G8 and invite Putin. Xi and Bolsonaro for a long golf weekend instead and call it the G4. (maybe Bojo too)
- Spite Tarrifs.
- Conspiracy theories.

[duped_samaritan]

Cases are spiking!!!! Ohhh but ignore the fact that we are now testing 5x as many people as we were a few weeks ago.

Seems like it hasn't gone up much at all in past month:


We're testing 5x as many people as we were in March:




There's pretty strong evidence that the death count will spike 2-3 weeks after the case count spikes.

Hopefully it won't be as bad since the cases seem to be much more spread out unlike when NYC was spiking.

[Sanlmar]

Also right on cue EU banning Americans along with brazillians and Russians due to failures to contain COVID 19.

I’m waiting for Cuomo to ban Floridians from NY.

That would have nuclear fallout.

[Sanlmar]

BCR pointed this out in a different post but all that really matters is the death count.

Cases are spiking!!!! Ohhh but ignore the fact that we are now testing 5x as many people as we were a few weeks ago. If deaths continue the downward trend then case counts are irrelevant if they start to spike back up in the next couple weeks then we have something to talk about.

I’m not sure your point here. Illness is a real thing.

If I’m a restaurant or a gym and five of my employees are ill - I’m fucked. I think they will require a big yellow star on my door.

Some businesses have key employees to worry about.

Not even getting into families and all that.