So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[Dan Druff]

I don't believe the "California had herd immunity" theory. It's nonsense. There's no way something as contagious and severe as COVID-19 could just quietly pass through most of a 40 million population without being detected.

Do I believe that we will find a surprising number of already-had-it people (in all areas of the US) who didn't realize it? Yes.

Do I believe that it's possible COVID-19 was in the US in late December, and we didn't realize it? Yes.

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will be far less than 1%? Yes.

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will look like that of the flu? Fuck no.

Do I believe that, if the death rates do end up comparable to the flu, that the panic was overblown? No, for two reasons. First off, the consequences of COVID-19 for those who don't die are often far worse than the flu, between the horrible symptoms for weeks, the ventilator necessity, and the long-term damage it causes. So death isn't the only relevant metric. Second, there was a huge unknown with this one, and playing it safe was the right play.


With all of that said, I wouldn't be shocked if we found that symptomatic COVID-19 somehow passes over a third of the population based upon certain factors, and that a lot of people will get some pleasant surprises when they get their antibody tests done.

[Tellafriend]

bill maher is god

Rogan had him on recently and it was enjoyable.

[Daly]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1251532625942130689

this guy is a gigantic pussy

Seriously.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1251619754781147139

cool cool

[sonatine]

fauci shooting down the lab theory, which makes me less confident of it but definitely doesnt make me rule it out.

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1251532625942130689

this guy is a gigantic pussy

Steven Crowder was on this awhile ago

[Sloppy Joe]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1251532625942130689

this guy is a gigantic pussy

Steven Crowder was on this awhile ago

Yeah lol being upset at 36k dead fucking pussy. #GOP

[Dan Druff]

Yeah lol being upset at 36k dead fucking pussy. #GOP

Did you get in bed and cry for our pre-pandemic lives?

[tgull]

Yeah lol being upset at 36k dead fucking pussy. #GOP

Did you get in bed and cry for our pre-pandemic lives?

Why are you bantering with a loser guy from a loser country? He does not even live in the USA. Just ignore this euro-trash.

[Krypt]

sloppy j stop w/ the back and forth in this thread and see your quarantine music thread which I so graciously blessed.

[ErickAA]

All the articles on the Cambridge study are garbage. First off, their whole timeline with the mutations is based on modeling, and probably isn't any better than all the other horrible models floating around. Second, all of their "data" from China is just them believing whatever bullshit the CCP is peddling them. There is no independent verification that anything we are being told about samples coming from China are true at all. Given they have lied about everything else, it would actually be absurd to take any of it at face value.

This shit started in December in Wuhan and spread out from there. All theories otherwise are CCP disinformation. I wouldn't be surprised if whoever is doing the Cambridge studies is on a CCP payroll.

[sonatine]

its worth nothing that the CCP has a _lot_ of people in virtually all major research centers on its payroll.

[ErickAA]

fauci shooting down the lab theory, which makes me less confident of it but definitely doesnt make me rule it out.

He said he didn't believe it was made in a lab. It seems the real scientific community that has studied the viral genome agrees with this, that none of it is man made.

However, it is still very likely that the virus escaped from a Wuhan laboratory. He has no inside information to say anything about this one way or another. All he has is what the CCP told him. This is what we do know:

1. There are caves in SW China 1000+ miles away that have bats with coronaviruses at least 97% similar to this virus, that the Chinese have previously documented.

2. Wuhan researchers had gone to these caves, extracted these bats, transported them all the way to Wuhan and were studying Coronaviruses in them

3. These researchers had discovered the bat coronaviruses entered cells through receptors present in human cells, making the possibility they could transmit to humans very likely. These are the same receptors Coronavirus attaches to to enter human cells.

4. The Wuhan wet markets don't sell bats at all. There are no evidence of the type of bats that carry Coronaviruses anywhere near Wuhan. Wet markets traffic exclusively in local flora and fauna. Nothing from 1000+ miles away ever makes it to them.

You put it all together and the wet market is likely just a CCP disinformation tactic, and the virus most likely escaped from a lab, assuredly accidentally. It wasn't bioengineered because it didn't have to be. Wuhan researchers had already published papers documenting bat Coronaviruses local to SW China attached through ACE2 receptors, meaning they could be transmitted to humans. We already knew that.

[ErickAA]

I don't believe the "California had herd immunity" theory. It's nonsense. There's no way something as contagious and severe as COVID-19 could just quietly pass through most of a 40 million population without being detected.

Do I believe that we will find a surprising number of already-had-it people (in all areas of the US) who didn't realize it? Yes.

Do I believe that it's possible COVID-19 was in the US in late December, and we didn't realize it? Yes.

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will be far less than 1%? Yes.

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will look like that of the flu? Fuck no.

Do I believe that, if the death rates do end up comparable to the flu, that the panic was overblown? No, for two reasons. First off, the consequences of COVID-19 for those who don't die are often far worse than the flu, between the horrible symptoms for weeks, the ventilator necessity, and the long-term damage it causes. So death isn't the only relevant metric. Second, there was a huge unknown with this one, and playing it safe was the right play.


With all of that said, I wouldn't be shocked if we found that symptomatic COVID-19 somehow passes over a third of the population based upon certain factors, and that a lot of people will get some pleasant surprises when they get their antibody tests done.

Unlikely anywhere in California. All the antibody tests that have shown this kind of coverage have come from areas that were hard hit by the virus. Areas where ~5% of the population was known COVID+, with a lot of mortality. There is no evidence that it stealthily hit anywhere hard without a lot of body bags being needed.

[ErickAA]

I am actually a fan of DailyMail and readily admit it, and prefer it to US MSM. I don't follow British politics at all, but I actually feel DailyMail covers US politics more even handedly than any of our partisan media, left or right.

That being said, it appears DailyMail has some sort of partnership with the CCP that started in 2016. So anything DailyMail is publishing on Coronavirus and China, assume a CCP editor has gone through it and given it the go ahead.

[Wiganer]

fauci shooting down the lab theory, which makes me less confident of it but definitely doesnt make me rule it out.

He said he didn't believe it was made in a lab. It seems the real scientific community that has studied the viral genome agrees with this, that none of it is man made.

However, it is still very likely that the virus escaped from a Wuhan laboratory. He has no inside information to say anything about this one way or another. All he has is what the CCP told him. This is what we do know:

1. There are caves in SW China 1000+ miles away that have bats with coronaviruses at least 97% similar to this virus, that the Chinese have previously documented.

2. Wuhan researchers had gone to these caves, extracted these bats, transported them all the way to Wuhan and were studying Coronaviruses in them

3. These researchers had discovered the bat coronaviruses entered cells through receptors present in human cells, making the possibility they could transmit to humans very likely. These are the same receptors Coronavirus attaches to to enter human cells.

4. The Wuhan wet markets don't sell bats at all. There are no evidence of the type of bats that carry Coronaviruses anywhere near Wuhan. Wet markets traffic exclusively in local flora and fauna. Nothing from 1000+ miles away ever makes it to them.

You put it all together and the wet market is likely just a CCP disinformation tactic, and the virus most likely escaped from a lab, assuredly accidentally. It wasn't bioengineered because it didn't have to be. Wuhan researchers had already published papers documenting bat Coronaviruses local to SW China attached through ACE2 receptors, meaning they could be transmitted to humans. We already knew that.

There’s an article in Nature that suggests the route was likely from pangolins. those could definitely have been sold in the market. However, the proximity to the lab makes lab escape a plausible route.

[TheXFactor]

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will be far less than 1%? Yes.

This will NOT be true of the death rate in New York.

They were exposed to a more lethal strain of the virus and bigger doses of it. By the time people had serious enough symptoms and they needed to go to the hospital, within 12 hours they are on a ventilator fighting for their lives.

California was exposed it a less lethal strain of the virus and has had a very mild experience compared to other parts of the country.

There were TEN TIMES as many home deaths in NYC than before the pandemic.

[ErickAA]

He said he didn't believe it was made in a lab. It seems the real scientific community that has studied the viral genome agrees with this, that none of it is man made.

However, it is still very likely that the virus escaped from a Wuhan laboratory. He has no inside information to say anything about this one way or another. All he has is what the CCP told him. This is what we do know:

1. There are caves in SW China 1000+ miles away that have bats with coronaviruses at least 97% similar to this virus, that the Chinese have previously documented.

2. Wuhan researchers had gone to these caves, extracted these bats, transported them all the way to Wuhan and were studying Coronaviruses in them

3. These researchers had discovered the bat coronaviruses entered cells through receptors present in human cells, making the possibility they could transmit to humans very likely. These are the same receptors Coronavirus attaches to to enter human cells.

4. The Wuhan wet markets don't sell bats at all. There are no evidence of the type of bats that carry Coronaviruses anywhere near Wuhan. Wet markets traffic exclusively in local flora and fauna. Nothing from 1000+ miles away ever makes it to them.

You put it all together and the wet market is likely just a CCP disinformation tactic, and the virus most likely escaped from a lab, assuredly accidentally. It wasn't bioengineered because it didn't have to be. Wuhan researchers had already published papers documenting bat Coronaviruses local to SW China attached through ACE2 receptors, meaning they could be transmitted to humans. We already knew that.

There’s an article in Nature that suggests the route was likely from pangolins. those could definitely have been sold in the market. However, the proximity to the lab makes lab escape a plausible route.

I am EXTREMELY skeptical of this. Maybe they postulated that it "possibly" came from pangolins.

I would love to see the article that made a claim it was "likely" to have come from pangolins and see the rationale why. My guess is no such Nature article exists and you are just misremembering something or getting distorted secondhand information.

[BCR]

I don't believe the "California had herd immunity" theory. It's nonsense. There's no way something as contagious and severe as COVID-19 could just quietly pass through most of a 40 million population without being detected.

Do I believe that we will find a surprising number of already-had-it people (in all areas of the US) who didn't realize it? Yes.

Do I believe that it's possible COVID-19 was in the US in late December, and we didn't realize it? Yes.

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will be far less than 1%? Yes.

Do I believe that, when it's all over, the death rate will look like that of the flu? Fuck no.

Do I believe that, if the death rates do end up comparable to the flu, that the panic was overblown? No, for two reasons. First off, the consequences of COVID-19 for those who don't die are often far worse than the flu, between the horrible symptoms for weeks, the ventilator necessity, and the long-term damage it causes. So death isn't the only relevant metric. Second, there was a huge unknown with this one, and playing it safe was the right play.


With all of that said, I wouldn't be shocked if we found that symptomatic COVID-19 somehow passes over a third of the population based upon certain factors, and that a lot of people will get some pleasant surprises when they get their antibody tests done.

Unlikely anywhere in California. All the antibody tests that have shown this kind of coverage have come from areas that were hard hit by the virus. Areas where ~5% of the population was known COVID+, with a lot of mortality. There is no evidence that it stealthily hit anywhere hard without a lot of body bags being needed.

I don’t think you read that as he intended it. Or I’m wrong. I think he meant that when it hits an area that a third of the people can expect to have no symptoms and find out that they had it later. Not that it already has hit a California that hard.

I think that’s a conservative estimate. I think maybe 50% may be asymptomatic given the median age of the US is 37. I think most of the under 25 crowd won’t feel it. Maybe 70% I’d guess. I think maybe his numbers are correct for 35-60. Feels like 35%. I look at someone like the actor Idris Elba. He has asthma. Nearing 50. Both him and his wife felt nothing. I’d guess 90% of over 60s have at least minor. I recall that early guy on cruise ship from Santa Clarita. Had a fever one day and nothing ever again. Was still testing positive 35 days later. His wife seemed only mild. So symptoms, but mild. Ton of variance from reading, but I’d guess maybe up to half will never even know. Everyone’s guesses are simply guesses obviously. I sure wish there was a good antibody test that was easily obtainable.

[duped_samaritan]

Yeah lol being upset at 36k dead fucking pussy. #GOP

Did you get in bed and cry for our pre-pandemic lives?

I cried a little once in public while doing the 911 memorial, once by myself reading the 911 report, and most recently while playing Mario Kart online with a friend who's wife got put on a ventilator on Easter. He's by himself in a 600 sf studio knowing that every day he doesn't hear good news increases her chances of dying by like 10%.