So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[ErickAA]

Some good news in the US:

Deaths from 4/09 5pm-4/10 5pm --- 2048
Deaths from 4/10 5pm-4/11 5pm --- 1830
Deaths from 4/11 5pm-4/12 5pm --- 1528

(All times PDT)

It appears the death peak has been reached, and it is now falling, perhaps rapidly. This is due to social distancing, of course. Obviously if everyone goes back out before a major breakthrough occurs (a cure/semi-cure or vaccine), a second wave will begin.

California has had just 115 deaths in the past 72 hours.

Its possible. But also keep in mind it is a long holiday weekend, so reporting is probably backed up. I think I read somewhere there is a dip pretty much every weekend, and Tuesday is the catch up day where numbers jump up.

I obviously hope the CA numbers are true and will hold, but I am skeptical. I suspect a lot of homeless shelters and nursing homes where testing/results haven't come in yet. FWIW my wife's hospital has much less serious cases than they expected, and they are actually running at lower capacity than normal because so many "elective" medical procedures aren't happening, but overall they are still doing very little testing of likely COVID cases. They are still just telling people to stay at home and self quarantine, and not offering any testing to most.

As predicted, the NY/NJ/Louisiana death numbers getting the Tuesday bump after the weekend dip. California actually got a bump back up to 53 deaths yesterday, and today too early to tell.

[peter mcneil]

Its possible. But also keep in mind it is a long holiday weekend, so reporting is probably backed up. I think I read somewhere there is a dip pretty much every weekend, and Tuesday is the catch up day where numbers jump up.

I obviously hope the CA numbers are true and will hold, but I am skeptical. I suspect a lot of homeless shelters and nursing homes where testing/results haven't come in yet. FWIW my wife's hospital has much less serious cases than they expected, and they are actually running at lower capacity than normal because so many "elective" medical procedures aren't happening, but overall they are still doing very little testing of likely COVID cases. They are still just telling people to stay at home and self quarantine, and not offering any testing to most.

As predicted, the NY/NJ/Louisiana death numbers getting the Tuesday bump after the weekend dip. California actually got a bump back up to 53 deaths yesterday, and today too early to tell.

While deaths are sad they're a snap shot of what the virus was doing in the past. It's an outcome that results in one less person that can pass along the virus. I think the most important number to follow is the daily % growth followed by outcomes per day. If the % growth is declining and deaths/recoveries are increasing the virus is on the decline.

Every country, state, province etc. Has its own Coronavirus wiki page with a great timeline of the course the virus is taking. Anytime I read a sensationalist news article I check if it matches the data. Of course one could argue the data is skewed and manipulated and that definately happens but most countries seem to follow a similar path assuming they implement measures. Italy, Germany and Spain are all under 2% growth today. Italy's last double in cases took 20 days. I guess it's something to feel positive about under really miserable circumstances, it's declining worldwide and has been for awhile.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1250135700063862791

im not asking for apologies but honestly its frustrating when citing something so obvious gets me called a crackpot.

[Walter Sobchak]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1250135700063862791

im not asking for apologies but honestly its frustrating when citing something so obvious gets me called a crackpot.

I don't see it on their website. Did Geraldo open Al Capone's vault early?

Would be great if true, it would help prompt the world to begin treating China like the menace it is.

[blake]

adding to tine's post

"But on Tuesday, the narrative has flipped. It’s no longer a story shared by China bears and President Trump fans. Today, Josh Rogin, who is said to be as plugged into the State Department as any Washington Post columnist, was shown documents dating back to 2015 revealing how the U.S. government was worried about safety standards at that Wuhan lab. In fact, they were worried that one day, one of these experiments — including the one on bat coronaviruses — could escape and become a global nightmare."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#61a748601ee1

[blake]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1250135700063862791

im not asking for apologies but honestly its frustrating when citing something so obvious gets me called a crackpot.

I don't see it on their website. Did Geraldo open Al Capone's vault early?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...coronaviruses/

it's listed as opinion, which is weird as the writer is not giving his opinion

"The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic."

[sonatine]

I don't see it on their website. Did Geraldo open Al Capone's vault early?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...coronaviruses/

it's listed as opinion, which is weird as the writer is not giving his opinion

"The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic."

honestly? probably to avoid pissing off china.

punch line being we really cant afford to piss off china.

[splitthis]

This police state is getting out of hand. We need to start to organize against our lives being ruined over the 1%ers.

[OSA]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1250135700063862791

im not asking for apologies but honestly its frustrating when citing something so obvious gets me called a crackpot.

You posting a Geraldo tweet(huge Hispanic conservative) to vindicate your original statement makes me giggle.

[ErickAA]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...coronaviruses/

it's listed as opinion, which is weird as the writer is not giving his opinion

"The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic."

honestly? probably to avoid pissing off china.

punch line being we really cant afford to piss off china.

That article actually just adds a little bit more circumstantial evidence toward the pre-existing mountain of circumstantial evidence pointing towards the virus coming from the lab, and not a wet market. It isn't a smoking gun at all.

[OSA]

Also love the shills at the WH Briefings trying to paint China in a honorable light and how great they are shipping masks and equipment to other countries.

[nightmarefish]

on the one hand, i believe in his gene mapping thesis.

on the other hand, the assertion that covid took 6-12 weeks to get from wuhan to the united states is severely flawed at face value and people i trust to not make shit up have provided corollary data which lends itself to a late 2019 introduction.

im not saying i know how to reconcile those two positions, but its the 2nd one that i personally subscribe to and its not really a close race.

I think the respiratory study I linked second from California with 3k cases and no Covid cases at all until late Feb is as compelling if not more. It is weird on the Wuhan thing but having 3k Ca samples and 6k Wa samples from already sick people is pretty compelling to me. . I certainly don’t believe California had any wide spread cases of any statistical note.

I don’t know what percentage of flights from China to the US first land in California but it has to be extremely high. If you don’t believe California was hit first then how do you explain California missing it?

[ErickAA]

I think the respiratory study I linked second from California with 3k cases and no Covid cases at all until late Feb is as compelling if not more. It is weird on the Wuhan thing but having 3k Ca samples and 6k Wa samples from already sick people is pretty compelling to me. . I certainly don’t believe California had any wide spread cases of any statistical note.

I don’t know what percentage of flights from China to the US first land in California but it has to be extremely high. If you don’t believe California was hit first then how do you explain California missing it?

A little bit of luck and built in social distancing.

Maybe just got lucky no super spreaders were out and about in the community early. California pretty much having no public transport, and much less apartment living also probably helped.

California probably had some infected people early, but they just didn't spread the disease very much.

[BCR]

I think the respiratory study I linked second from California with 3k cases and no Covid cases at all until late Feb is as compelling if not more. It is weird on the Wuhan thing but having 3k Ca samples and 6k Wa samples from already sick people is pretty compelling to me. . I certainly don’t believe California had any wide spread cases of any statistical note.

I don’t know what percentage of flights from China to the US first land in California but it has to be extremely high. If you don’t believe California was hit first then how do you explain California missing it?

It hasn’t really missed you. You’re just a fortunate state for a high population state. You took it seriously early and have a fairly fit populace. Our governor took it seriously here and we have 7000 cases with 1/4 of the population and you have 25000+ cases. So when adding in we are an older state, right about correct. You’re not like the other states that have got hit hard as far as mass transit.

There is nothing that could cause it to *miss* California short of herd immunity. If you think you have 20 million cases I don’t know what to do other than laugh. Even if you had 2 million cases, it wouldn’t miss you. And it’s clear you didn’t given they tested the direct lab specimens from 3000 California citizens sick with respiratory illness in January and Feb and had exactly zero Covid cases before mid Feb. I’m sure all those people are convinced they had it also.

Either we don’t actually have a test for Covid at all or you had something else. Zero cases from any case of those sick with respiratory illness is either the test doesn’t work at all or you clearly had something else that isn’t Covid. I don’t see an option three.

[ErickAA]

I don’t know what percentage of flights from China to the US first land in California but it has to be extremely high. If you don’t believe California was hit first then how do you explain California missing it?

It hasn’t really missed you. You’re just a fortunate state for a high population state. You took it seriously early and have a fairly fit populace. Our governor took it seriously here and we have 7000 cases with 1/4 of the population and you have 25000+ cases. So when adding in we are an older state, right about correct. You’re not like the other states that have got hit hard as far as mass transit.

There is nothing that could cause it to *miss* California short of herd immunity. If you think you have 20 million cases I don’t know what to do other than laugh. Even if you had 2 million cases, it wouldn’t miss you. And it’s clear you didn’t given they tested the direct lab specimens from 3000 California citizens sick with respiratory illness in January and Feb and had exactly zero Covid cases before mid Feb. I’m sure all those people are convinced they had it also.

Either we don’t actually have a test for Covid at all or you had something else. Zero cases from any case of those sick with respiratory illness is either the test doesn’t work at all or you clearly had something else that isn’t Covid. I don’t see an option three.

I think all 3000 of those citizens were from the same county, Santa Clara I believe. I am guessing if you looked at samples from a hospital in Monterey Park (a Los Angeles suburb that is almost entirely Chinese) the virus might have popped up a little earlier. But not several months earlier.

[sonatine]

Trump halts WHO funding, claims cover up

Mutters “Everybody knows what’s going on there”

[blake]

I don’t know what percentage of flights from China to the US first land in California but it has to be extremely high. If you don’t believe California was hit first then how do you explain California missing it?

It hasn’t really missed you. You’re just a fortunate state for a high population state. You took it seriously early and have a fairly fit populace. Our governor took it seriously here and we have 7000 cases with 1/4 of the population and you have 25000+ cases. So when adding in we are an older state, right about correct. You’re not like the other states that have got hit hard as far as mass transit.

There is nothing that could cause it to *miss* California short of herd immunity. If you think you have 20 million cases I don’t know what to do other than laugh. Even if you had 2 million cases, it wouldn’t miss you. And it’s clear you didn’t given they tested the direct lab specimens from 3000 California citizens sick with respiratory illness in January and Feb and had exactly zero Covid cases before mid Feb. I’m sure all those people are convinced they had it also.

Either we don’t actually have a test for Covid at all or you had something else. Zero cases from any case of those sick with respiratory illness is either the test doesn’t work at all or you clearly had something else that isn’t Covid. I don’t see an option three.

with the amount of homeless in california, why hasn't covid 19 have just wiped them out? i don't know the answer, i just think it's strange.

[Sloppy Joe]

fyp

Crazy thing is all the Druffs and sidedishes of the world are falling for everything he's saying right now.

Absolute, indefensible lunacy today.

[nightmarefish]

These press conferences are surreal.

[ErickAA]

It hasn’t really missed you. You’re just a fortunate state for a high population state. You took it seriously early and have a fairly fit populace. Our governor took it seriously here and we have 7000 cases with 1/4 of the population and you have 25000+ cases. So when adding in we are an older state, right about correct. You’re not like the other states that have got hit hard as far as mass transit.

There is nothing that could cause it to *miss* California short of herd immunity. If you think you have 20 million cases I don’t know what to do other than laugh. Even if you had 2 million cases, it wouldn’t miss you. And it’s clear you didn’t given they tested the direct lab specimens from 3000 California citizens sick with respiratory illness in January and Feb and had exactly zero Covid cases before mid Feb. I’m sure all those people are convinced they had it also.

Either we don’t actually have a test for Covid at all or you had something else. Zero cases from any case of those sick with respiratory illness is either the test doesn’t work at all or you clearly had something else that isn’t Covid. I don’t see an option three.

with the amount of homeless in california, why hasn't covid 19 have just wiped them out? i don't know the answer, i just think it's strange.

It will probably wipe out 15% aged above 75, 10% above 60, and barely affect the younger cohorts. Same as everyone else.
Remember, Covid isn't actually that deadly. I am guessing a sizeable proportion of the homeless population will get infected and ~5% of those will die.

At my wife's hospital they had a 39 week pregnant homeless woman drugged out on who knows what come in. She tested positive for Covid. They did a C Section, she immediately gave up the baby, convalesced for a couple days, and walked right out the front door looking for her next fix.

500 years ago we would have just had sick people convalesce at home while everyone else went about their lives, the virus would have swept through the whole population, the vast majority of people would have recovered just fine, and life would have gone on without much hassle. Our modern respect for human life, which isn't something homeless don't worry too much about, is the main reason this is such a big deal.