So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[simpdog]

Pretty cool, maybe all countries will just follow the China model with a LOT of pain.

Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inf...covid19-curve/

i feel like ive said this before but please dont trust china numbers. at all. on anything. 100.

John Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.

There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.

But we'll never know.

[Salty_Aus]

i feel like ive said this before but please dont trust china numbers. at all. on anything. 100.

John Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.

There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.

But we'll never know.

Acoording to the figures there is less then 10k active cases in China. 70k have recovered.

Agree, I reckon the initial figures are at least double.

[Forum Wars]

i feel like ive said this before but please dont trust china numbers. at all. on anything. 100.

John Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.

There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.

But we'll never know.

Yeah, they're not real. But they are controlling this, that is real.

[sonatine]

John Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.

There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.

But we'll never know.

Yeah, they're not real. But they are controlling this, that is real.

yeah but their version of control is something our society isnt wired for. they sealed off a whole fucking province the size of washington state and just.. let it burn out. anyone who complained vanished.

like i dont see a middle ground for us; either this totally nothingburgers because white people just arent susceptible to it or we are talking about a nation-wide lockdown police state with the occasional food riots.

[donkdowndonedied]

Dammit, another backdoor pay protection package for chief executives at taxpayer expense!!!

Airlines are pleading for federal government financing to sustain them during the current slump due to virus.

I am okay with that, provided executive salaries are limited until the loans are repaid.

A reporter at the news conference just asked a question along those lines...cliffs: no executive bonus by companies receiving government loans

Pence was called to the podium by Trump to answer that question. He just said the government would do what it takes to sustain the industry---in other words, no.

Fuck...its the same story of 2008: the ruling class is protected from loss at the public expense!

And this is why Bernie Bros are Bernie Bros.

[donkdowndonedied]

so i heard 18% of the service industry is out of work or missing hours. thats... fucking wild.

In TX it is far more than 18%. Today, gyms, bars, restaurants, cardrooms, all shut down. I went to cancel my personal trainer but they locked the doors before their shutdown time of 5pm.

[donkdowndonedied]

Considering no one had tests, and we are going to get tests in, I don’t know how we will know when and if it’s spreading. It’s going to look ike it’s spreading more. Obviously we are isolated and that will help. Italy is probably near the peak and will begin to decline. We are weeks to a month from that point, maybe more like six weeks, and it will be hard to determine given the initial lack of testing.

Lots of family units and kids to pass this thing around. I mean how do schools go back to normal if there is no vaccine. Then it gets passed to their parents and then up the chain to the grandparents. Kids can't keep from infecting each other.

I don't think this thing was widespread. If it had been, we'd have more of those places like WA where 19 patients died of CV. Although maybe there are other places like this where no one was test. It is entirely possible we're quite infected, but I don't think so because just not enough people in hospitals. I flew Monday 8 days ago and thought there was a low chance of catching it.

Worst part is we have no idea how many people are asymptomatic. We know they exist but have literally 0 clue. I don't even know if they can test for antibodies to see if people had it in the past.

[Salty_Aus]

Yeah, they're not real. But they are controlling this, that is real.

yeah but their version of control is something our society isnt wired for. they sealed off a whole fucking province the size of washington state and just.. let it burn out. anyone who complained vanished.

like i dont see a middle ground for us; either this totally nothingburgers because white people just arent susceptible to it or we are talking about a nation-wide lockdown police state with the occasional food riots.

Westerners just aren't suited to being locked - down. I'm not sure it can be done here or in the US.
Most folks understand the situation and would be willing to self isolate at the very least. But thousands will not.

What remains to be seen is does the virus peek again in China and South Korea once they relax the quarantine.

Also the warmer weather doesn't appear to really help. Trump saying it will disappear like the seasonal flu with summer approaching is likely not true. Rampant in summer temp all over the world.

[GrenadaRoger]

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE...slowing-621145

important article by an important person.

I suspect in the next few days you will start to see many more of these articles.

contrast the rather optimistic tone of that article with the one just published by the Washington Post


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartanntp

very dismal times ahead forecast

and it seems UK & US is believes in the predictions of the English modelers rather than the one from Israel...

[Krypt]

-105 Israel manufactured this

[big dick]

Bottom line is I have about a 1/4Mill to spray around in the market, cash. This is a fabricated CNN bunch of bullshit. I am buying. When I hand you a $20, make sure you give me correct change bitches.

That's it? I'm gonna buy a few Billion worth.


And eat meat you stupid fucker it's good for you as is cheese



fabricated? Only a complete moron would say something so fucking stupid

[sonatine]

yeah but their version of control is something our society isnt wired for. they sealed off a whole fucking province the size of washington state and just.. let it burn out. anyone who complained vanished.

like i dont see a middle ground for us; either this totally nothingburgers because white people just arent susceptible to it or we are talking about a nation-wide lockdown police state with the occasional food riots.

Westerners just aren't suited to being locked - down. I'm not sure it can be done here or in the US.
Most folks understand the situation and would be willing to self isolate at the very least. But thousands will not.

What remains to be seen is does the virus peek again in China and South Korea once they relax the quarantine.

Also the warmer weather doesn't appear to really help. Trump saying it will disappear like the seasonal flu with summer approaching is likely not true. Rampant in summer temp all over the world.

the fact that it absolutely flourished in bangkok tells you everything you need to know about his warm weather theory.

[big dick]

I can't believe there are people like bottomset who think this is all made up media bullshit

The fat fucking sorry excuse for a president that you nitwits worship has even declared a national emergency. A few weeks too late and many more are gonna die now that wouldn't have but whatever right? Until someone you're close with dies who maybe wouldn't have had we had a real president in office. And by real president Im talking bush reagan obama ect.

This maniac claimed a few weeks ago this was just a hoax. How can any you guys who support him still back him? You gotta be straight stupid to still support this clown.

I Wish romney or any other republican who ran in 2016 was president right now. Anyone but this fucking idiot and I would feel a whole hell of a lot better right now about my safety and safety of my friends family and the american public

[BCR]

I suspect in the next few days you will start to see many more of these articles.

contrast the rather optimistic tone of that article with the one just published by the Washington Post


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartanntp

very dismal times ahead forecast

and it seems UK & US is believes in the predictions of the English modelers rather than the one from Israel...

That really smart people are miles apart makes sense as we truly don’t know anything well enough to model imo.

We have China first. We can’t trust their numbers and we will never have the will to suppress it as they did. Then Iran who we can’t trust whatsoever. I bet their numbers are off by a magnitude of 100. Then South Korea who was incredibly proactive in a way that passed us by a month ago.

Italy is the only template of a country that is somewhat similar, yet a decade older in median age, and caught early and unprepared. I trust their death totals completely. But they've been overwhelmed since the jump, so they can’t waste a second testing asymptomatic people. How can you model anything when you have death numbers that are unreliable in most places hit so far and no total cases to calculate the deaths into?

I think it will get nasty in clusters. but I truthfully wouldn’t be shocked by 25- 50k or 500k dead. Or a million. If brilliant number crunchers are miles apart, would you bet your net worth on o/u 150k by end year?

That seems way lower than we can expect. Better than the best case scenario by the English model and most estimates. I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking either side of that number though. Italy sounds like hell on earth atm and yet it’s still only 2500 dead right now. If they aren’t at the peak at all and it ends up 25000, that still wouldn’t tell you a ton as far as we are concerned.

I have no idea and I’ve been watching it for months. Outside Italy, most of Europe is on a similar timeline to us. We are more like those countries than anything hit thus far. We are just so dissimilar to China or Iran or South Korea in every way that I can’t make anything of those countries.

[zealanddonk]

people are going to have much bigger concerns than a police state in about 10 days and an awful lot of folks are going to be grateful if/when it arrives.

I am being totally serious here, but what do you guestimate the # of PFA posters that will perish in 2020? 20%? Obviously healthy posters are not part of the fabric here. Likely 70% of the posters here eat meat, cheese bread and mayonnaise every day.

If you died, we'd lose 20% of the accounts here.

[big dick]

it's like 20 pages long but I will post the first page for everyone to see without clicking the link


https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf


Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin,
Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria
Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van
Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker,
Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.
On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London
Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased

[TheXFactor]

[TheXFactor]

[Dan Druff]

Helpful chart.

I was sneezing tonight so I looked this up. Not corona.

More likely because it's cold in southern CA tonight (30s where I am), and the heater is on, so dust is probably blowing in the air and causing me to sneeze.

Flu and coronavirus have very similar symptoms, though if you have a lot of nasal congestion, it's probably the flu and not corona.

[phantom]