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Thread: So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

  1. #12421
    Diamond dwai's Avatar
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    weird, I can do this without being vaccinated as well

    this basically just slaps down the maskers as anti science bigots

  2. #12422
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwai View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BCR View Post

    It’s been being developed for 15 years and everyone here will eventually get treatment by the mRNA mechanism in the future. The biggest problem it presents is how to pay social security when it eventually adds 5-7 years to average lifespan in next 20 years. It will be the norm delivery system for multiple cancers and other maladies in the short term future.

    The western world will be back to normal life by summer. After that, having been a vocal anti vax proponent will be equivalent to believing the earth is flat.
    you really think we'll be back to normal?

    they're already trying to push masks and social distancing for people who ARE vaccinated

    I hope you're right but I don't see this authorization stopping

    As expected.

     
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      dwai: we'll see how this plays out

  3. #12423
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Two articles that roughly outline your specific failure...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/u...avirus-us.html

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ailure/614191/

    ...many many words. That tends to happen if you aim for something truthful. I assume Druff spends the time it would take to read either of them to create another wall of text based on memes and "common sense".

    “This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

    "Although the disease first arrived in the U.S. in mid-January, genetic evidence shows that the specific viruses that triggered the first big outbreaks, in Washington State, didn’t land until mid-February."... this shit about 10k times when you start talking about specific communities that are closed enough to be considered separate for spread and containment starting from different states, cities and towns. Growth in all of them is exponential, but it correlates mostly to local cases. There's only a small ripple effect from cases across the country.

    "Diagnostic tests are easy to make, so the U.S. failing to create one seemed inconceivable. Worse, it had no Plan B. Private labs were strangled by FDA bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Sabeti’s lab developed a diagnostic test in mid-January and sent it to colleagues in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Senegal. “We had working diagnostics in those countries well before we did in any U.S. states,” she told me."
    Okay? I'm not sure why you believe any of this backs the points you raise.

    Today, on May 13, 2021, about 15 1/2 months since most Americans heard of the coronavirus, we still don't have a reliable COVID test. Even if we shipped our best test today back in time to February 2020, they wouldn't be sufficient for preventing the outbreak.

    In gimmick's imaginary world, we had a reliable test for COVID which could have been used to quickly contain and stop the virus from spreading throughout the country, but this didn't happen because Trump is a bad orange man who prevented it.

  4. #12424
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    The CDC statement on masking, while months late, is huge as far as returning back to normal.

    As a recently vaccinated person (considered fully vaccinated May 1), I've found it really irritating to have to wear my mask just because it makes others feel more comfortable. I understand that people don't know if I'm vaccinated or not, but at the same time, if they wanted a vaccine, they should really have it by now. So why am I masking?

    Fortunately I don't need to go anywhere for long periods of time, so the mask isn't that bothersome. So if I go to the store or wherever, I just put it on, do what I need to do, and take it off. Still, it would be great not having to do this.

    More importantly, this could be the path to more things opening normally. I mentioned in the MLB thread how I ran into a social distancing buzzsaw when trying to get tickets for Wednesday's Dodgers game. Due to reduced capacity and the inability for resellers to split 4 tickets into 2-and-2 for sale, there was a HUGE shortage of sets of 2 seats available, and thus the selection was poor and the prices super high. I skipped it and watched it on TV. Ben is excited to go again this year, and I had to tell him beforehand that I would probably fail getting tickets, and explained why. It would really be nice if they could just open this all up again.

    Nevada just removed their statewide mask mandate. This is also huge. Now the chance goes way up that I won't have to wear a mask this WSOP, which in turn brings the chance way up that I will attend. Time to practice my Stud game a bit more, which admittedly needs work.

  5. #12425
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    WSOP 2021 will still be a shit show.

    Will they force people to prove that they had the vaccine in order to play?

    Plus you would have to play at the crappy Rio.

    But the good news would be far less players than usual.

    You won't see a poker room this crowded again ever.



  6. #12426
    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Two articles that roughly outline your specific failure...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/u...avirus-us.html

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ailure/614191/

    ...many many words. That tends to happen if you aim for something truthful. I assume Druff spends the time it would take to read either of them to create another wall of text based on memes and "common sense".

    “This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

    "Although the disease first arrived in the U.S. in mid-January, genetic evidence shows that the specific viruses that triggered the first big outbreaks, in Washington State, didn’t land until mid-February."... this shit about 10k times when you start talking about specific communities that are closed enough to be considered separate for spread and containment starting from different states, cities and towns. Growth in all of them is exponential, but it correlates mostly to local cases. There's only a small ripple effect from cases across the country.

    "Diagnostic tests are easy to make, so the U.S. failing to create one seemed inconceivable. Worse, it had no Plan B. Private labs were strangled by FDA bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Sabeti’s lab developed a diagnostic test in mid-January and sent it to colleagues in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Senegal. “We had working diagnostics in those countries well before we did in any U.S. states,” she told me."
    Okay? I'm not sure why you believe any of this backs the points you raise.

    Today, on May 13, 2021, about 15 1/2 months since most Americans heard of the coronavirus, we still don't have a reliable COVID test. Even if we shipped our best test today back in time to February 2020, they wouldn't be sufficient for preventing the outbreak.

    In gimmick's imaginary world, we had a reliable test for COVID which could have been used to quickly contain and stop the virus from spreading throughout the country, but this didn't happen because Trump is a bad orange man who prevented it.
    And other countries relied on magic as we know.

    It's normal that there is a window period with tests. Doesn't mean they aren't reliable. You seem to believe that every part of the country was infected in February. It took almost 4 months to have the whole country covered. First few months tards were taking victory laps because it was mostly the heathens in blue states getting infected.

    But yea the mong riffing on injecting people with disinfectant was clearly the best man for the job.

     
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      rum dick: Rofl

  7. #12427
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Okay? I'm not sure why you believe any of this backs the points you raise.

    Today, on May 13, 2021, about 15 1/2 months since most Americans heard of the coronavirus, we still don't have a reliable COVID test. Even if we shipped our best test today back in time to February 2020, they wouldn't be sufficient for preventing the outbreak.

    In gimmick's imaginary world, we had a reliable test for COVID which could have been used to quickly contain and stop the virus from spreading throughout the country, but this didn't happen because Trump is a bad orange man who prevented it.
    And other countries relied on magic as we know.

    It's normal that there is a window period with tests. Doesn't mean they aren't reliable. You seem to believe that every part of the country was infected in February. It took almost 4 months to have the whole country covered. First few months tards were taking victory laps because it was mostly the heathens in blue states getting infected.

    But yea the mong riffing on injecting people with disinfectant was clearly the best man for the job.
    Which "other countries" used testing to get their way out of COVID?

    Don't just name countries with better outcomes, and don't name hive-mind countries like South Korea where the government simply got everyone to stay home and lower the spread. And don't name tiny countries with tiny populations.

    I want you to name medium-to-large countries which literally tested their way out of bad COVID outcomes, and explain how they did it.

    You're just spewing nonsense. If COVID is transmitting most when presymptomatic, and if presymptomatic testing has a huge false negative issue (up to 67%), then testing is not going to contain any spreads. At best, testing will give individuals a semi-reliable diagnosis (reliable if positive, not so reliable if negative), and can inform governments as to how bad an outbreak is. However, this wouldn't have prevented the spread, and when testing was sufficient, the left bungled their response badly.

  8. #12428
    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Two articles that roughly outline your specific failure...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/u...avirus-us.html

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ailure/614191/

    ...many many words. That tends to happen if you aim for something truthful. I assume Druff spends the time it would take to read either of them to create another wall of text based on memes and "common sense".

    “This isn’t actually rocket science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the New York City health department and the C.D.C. for a combined 15 years. “We know what to do, and we’re not doing it.”

    "Although the disease first arrived in the U.S. in mid-January, genetic evidence shows that the specific viruses that triggered the first big outbreaks, in Washington State, didn’t land until mid-February."... this shit about 10k times when you start talking about specific communities that are closed enough to be considered separate for spread and containment starting from different states, cities and towns. Growth in all of them is exponential, but it correlates mostly to local cases. There's only a small ripple effect from cases across the country.

    "Diagnostic tests are easy to make, so the U.S. failing to create one seemed inconceivable. Worse, it had no Plan B. Private labs were strangled by FDA bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Sabeti’s lab developed a diagnostic test in mid-January and sent it to colleagues in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Senegal. “We had working diagnostics in those countries well before we did in any U.S. states,” she told me."
    Okay? I'm not sure why you believe any of this backs the points you raise.
    Sometimes even i forget because you seem to think you get more points for extra words of gibberish. It's was about this line...

    "there's simply no way to contact trace your way out of something like COVID, unless you find Patient Zero"

    ...that would go back to the second quote. If you go about looking for regional Patient Zeroes, you're in a position to stop the chain thousands of times. The first cases weren't the cause of major outbreaks months later. Now obv there's literally no reason to find patient zero to break the chain. It's just random gibberish Druff heard somewhere or concluded with his infallible "common sense", another one of his favorite logical fallacies.

  9. #12429
    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    And other countries relied on magic as we know.

    It's normal that there is a window period with tests. Doesn't mean they aren't reliable. You seem to believe that every part of the country was infected in February. It took almost 4 months to have the whole country covered. First few months tards were taking victory laps because it was mostly the heathens in blue states getting infected.

    But yea the mong riffing on injecting people with disinfectant was clearly the best man for the job.
    Which "other countries" used testing to get their way out of COVID?

    Don't just name countries with better outcomes, and don't name hive-mind countries like South Korea where the government simply got everyone to stay home and lower the spread. And don't name tiny countries with tiny populations.

    I want you to name medium-to-large countries which literally tested their way out of bad COVID outcomes, and explain how they did it.

    You're just spewing nonsense. If COVID is transmitting most when presymptomatic, and if presymptomatic testing has a huge false negative issue (up to 67%), then testing is not going to contain any spreads. At best, testing will give individuals a semi-reliable diagnosis (reliable if positive, not so reliable if negative), and can inform governments as to how bad an outbreak is. However, this wouldn't have prevented the spread, and when testing was sufficient, the left bungled their response badly.
    Australia. I've already explained the logic months ago. Doubt you got smarter since then.

  10. #12430
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Okay? I'm not sure why you believe any of this backs the points you raise.
    Sometimes even i forget because you seem to think you get more points for extra words of gibberish. It's was about this line...

    "there's simply no way to contact trace your way out of something like COVID, unless you find Patient Zero"

    ...that would go back to the second quote. If you go about looking for regional Patient Zeroes, you're in a position to stop the chain thousands of times. The first cases weren't the cause of major outbreaks months later. Now obv there's literally no reason to find patient zero to break the chain. It's just random gibberish Druff heard somewhere or concluded with his infallible "common sense", another one of his favorite logical fallacies.
    So let me get this straight.

    Somehow with a test full of false negatives (especially at the beginning of infection), we are supposed to identify these "regional patient zeroes", and then somehow trace down everyone they came into contact with in a fully open society, and then also make sure none of these people travel outside of their respective local areas.

    Right.

    Very realistic plan.

    You brought up Washington. Let's take this very simple example.

    Joe in Seattle has COVID in February 2020. Joe has no symptoms yet, but is highly contagious. Feeling normal, Joe goes around the city, coming into contact with a ton of people, including indoors. If you had a gun to Joe's head, he couldn't name 1% of the people he came into contact with.

    Two days later, Joe starts to feel some symptoms.

    How do we prevent a COVID outbreak at this point? What if we test Joe and he's one of the 38% who show false negative after the symptoms start? What about the hundreds of people Joe encountered, some of whom caught COVID from him? How do we identify them?

    There simply isn't a way to do this when you're dealing with a highly contagious disease with presymptomatic transmission, combined with a test full of false negatives.

    I'm sorry, but all of your usual babble and goalpost moving isn't going to change these simple facts. It would have been great if COVID tests had very few false negatives, and if transmission only started after symptoms showed up, but that's not the way it occurred in real life.

  11. #12431
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Our Republican Governor said, “CDC has new guidelines today? Fuck off with that. Keeping restrictions. We’ll decide”

    Gotta maintain the government pecking order. You may suggest only.

    states flexing is an absolutely fascinating development. I wasn’t kidding before. Find a state that suits you.

     
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      rum dick: This
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-13-2021 at 05:05 PM.

  12. #12432
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    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Which "other countries" used testing to get their way out of COVID?

    Don't just name countries with better outcomes, and don't name hive-mind countries like South Korea where the government simply got everyone to stay home and lower the spread. And don't name tiny countries with tiny populations.

    I want you to name medium-to-large countries which literally tested their way out of bad COVID outcomes, and explain how they did it.

    You're just spewing nonsense. If COVID is transmitting most when presymptomatic, and if presymptomatic testing has a huge false negative issue (up to 67%), then testing is not going to contain any spreads. At best, testing will give individuals a semi-reliable diagnosis (reliable if positive, not so reliable if negative), and can inform governments as to how bad an outbreak is. However, this wouldn't have prevented the spread, and when testing was sufficient, the left bungled their response badly.
    Australia. I've already explained the logic months ago. Doubt you got smarter since then.
    They didn't test their way out of it. They just never got a terrible problem. They had 910 deaths out of 25 million people. It helps that they're an island which is pretty far from everything.

    It has never been fully understood how Australia had such a minor COVID problem compared to the rest of the world, though one theory tossed around involves vaccination they gave kids for decades which the rest of the world didn't, which some believe also gave partial immunity to coronaviruses.

    I won't claim to understand how Australia had such a good COVID outcome, but it appears to have been all luck, not intelligent policy. I know that some are taking victory laps over their policies such as "testing and contact tracing" and border closures (even on the state level), but all of this defies what we know about the highly contagious virus. With something like COVID, you can only contain it if you either lock everyone down completely in their homes, or if you jump on the very first few cases and isolate them. The latter is hard because of the presymptomatic transmission and unreliable testing. While Australia had very strict policies regarding incoming flights and people going from state-to-state during small outbreaks, they were also wide open regarding people congregating within the cities.

    None of this makes any sense. The best explanation is that they just got lucky with some factor over there which was different than most of the world -- perhaps that vaccination.

  13. #12433
    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Australia. I've already explained the logic months ago. Doubt you got smarter since then.
    They didn't test their way out of it. They just never got a terrible problem. They had 910 deaths out of 25 million people. It helps that they're an island which is pretty far from everything.

    It has never been fully understood how Australia had such a minor COVID problem compared to the rest of the world, though one theory tossed around involves vaccination they gave kids for decades which the rest of the world didn't, which some believe also gave partial immunity to coronaviruses.

    I won't claim to understand how Australia had such a good COVID outcome, but it appears to have been all luck, not intelligent policy. I know that some are taking victory laps over their policies such as "testing and contact tracing" and border closures (even on the state level), but all of this defies what we know about the highly contagious virus. With something like COVID, you can only contain it if you either lock everyone down completely in their homes, or if you jump on the very first few cases and isolate them. The latter is hard because of the presymptomatic transmission and unreliable testing. While Australia had very strict policies regarding incoming flights and people going from state-to-state during small outbreaks, they were also wide open regarding people congregating within the cities.

    None of this makes any sense. The best explanation is that they just got lucky with some factor over there which was different than most of the world -- perhaps that vaccination.
    Lol. Just lucky.

    When you do it right, you don't get ridiculous number of bodies.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...ling-1.4364482

    Just some lucky Asians again i guess. Add Taiwan and Vietnam to the list.

  14. #12434
    Platinum gimmick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gimmick View Post

    Sometimes even i forget because you seem to think you get more points for extra words of gibberish. It's was about this line...

    "there's simply no way to contact trace your way out of something like COVID, unless you find Patient Zero"

    ...that would go back to the second quote. If you go about looking for regional Patient Zeroes, you're in a position to stop the chain thousands of times. The first cases weren't the cause of major outbreaks months later. Now obv there's literally no reason to find patient zero to break the chain. It's just random gibberish Druff heard somewhere or concluded with his infallible "common sense", another one of his favorite logical fallacies.
    So let me get this straight.

    Somehow with a test full of false negatives (especially at the beginning of infection), we are supposed to identify these "regional patient zeroes", and then somehow trace down everyone they came into contact with in a fully open society, and then also make sure none of these people travel outside of their respective local areas.

    Right.

    Very realistic plan.

    You brought up Washington. Let's take this very simple example.

    Joe in Seattle has COVID in February 2020. Joe has no symptoms yet, but is highly contagious. Feeling normal, Joe goes around the city, coming into contact with a ton of people, including indoors. If you had a gun to Joe's head, he couldn't name 1% of the people he came into contact with.

    Two days later, Joe starts to feel some symptoms.

    How do we prevent a COVID outbreak at this point? What if we test Joe and he's one of the 38% who show false negative after the symptoms start? What about the hundreds of people Joe encountered, some of whom caught COVID from him? How do we identify them?

    There simply isn't a way to do this when you're dealing with a highly contagious disease with presymptomatic transmission, combined with a test full of false negatives.

    I'm sorry, but all of your usual babble and goalpost moving isn't going to change these simple facts. It would have been great if COVID tests had very few false negatives, and if transmission only started after symptoms showed up, but that's not the way it occurred in real life.
    Does Joe have a phone with Bluetooth?

    What's the goal post you think i'm moving?

    You don't have to catch every case and contact. Depending on how extensive back tracing you do changes those numbers. The running theme is still if you have enough people doing the tracing or if significant portions of the work are automated you will eventually get to people before they know they've been infected. And i've obv explained this to you before.

    Now since we're talking about US in February, Joe never gets tested because CDC botched the test and you didn't have a backup plan.

  15. #12435
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    Druff you seem to be going out of your way to exclude false POSITIVES, which are roughly 70% of all tests, covid is fake af you're all gay

     
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      splitthis: Super gay

  16. #12436
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    Bill Maher has tested positive despite being fully vaccinated.

    Yankees player Gleyber Torres has tested positive despite being both fully vaccinated and having COVID late last year or early this year.

    Both are asymptomatic.

    However, there are questions whether asymptomatic people transmit. This has never been established. There has been some belief that asymptomatic people don't transmit, but presymptomatic people do.

    But this does raise some questions as to whether or not the vaccines are all that effective at stopping people from catching COVID, and perhaps are just symptom blockers. However if they're symptom blockers AND asymptomatic people don't transmit, that's fine.

    Still a lot to be learned.

    Pfizer and Moderna did test the people in their study group in 2020, and found that while 6% or so vaccinated people got COVID, that severe illness was just about nonexistent.

    So it's very possible that Torres and Maher -- both people with relatively high exposure -- were just among those 6%.

    There's really not any reason to panic unless we start seeing fully vaccinated people routinely getting sick. But it's something to watch.

  17. #12437
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Bill Maher has tested positive despite being fully vaccinated.

    Yankees player Gleyber Torres has tested positive despite being both fully vaccinated and having COVID late last year or early this year.

    Both are asymptomatic.

    However, there are questions whether asymptomatic people transmit. This has never been established. There has been some belief that asymptomatic people don't transmit, but presymptomatic people do.

    But this does raise some questions as to whether or not the vaccines are all that effective at stopping people from catching COVID, and perhaps are just symptom blockers. However if they're symptom blockers AND asymptomatic people don't transmit, that's fine.

    Still a lot to be learned.

    Pfizer and Moderna did test the people in their study group in 2020, and found that while 6% or so vaccinated people got COVID, that severe illness was just about nonexistent.

    So it's very possible that Torres and Maher -- both people with relatively high exposure -- were just among those 6%.

    There's really not any reason to panic unless we start seeing fully vaccinated people routinely getting sick. But it's something to watch.
    stop being so anti vax, that means it's working!


    ROFL

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  20. #12440
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    Bless your precious little heart, dwai.

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