So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[Walter Sobchak]

I am so happy that opening gyms are in phase 1. Imma gonna cry when I can walk through those doors again.

Enjoy them for a month or two before they close again. I’m a little shocked they’re opening them in the first phase. I can’t really think of much worse places than the Petri dish that is a gym. Even high end gyms. Everything is shared equipment.

How the fuck do you properly clean dumbbells before the next guy grabs them? Clean long bars exactly? Almost any serious lifter uses chalk. Good luck with that. Thankfully pool appear safe as long as properly maintained.

Seems impossible to control and my gym always had spray disinfectant next to everything. The way these phases are set up, it just reverts back to lockdown the first spike. I give that a few weeks to a month and it will be shut down again. Cases have doubled or close to doubled last week in every rural state without a stay at home order. And those states have no one living there.

If one funeral creates a giant cluster, I can’t imagine what a gym will do. I’m happy for San. I am surprised a guy who has been proactive as DeWine would ok gyms of all places. I’m guessing someone made a two pronged argument about them going under fast because of the nature of the business and people getting out of shape and it presenting a bigger health problem. I can see that argument having validity, but gyms are going to be a damn quick incubator for a reversal.

Reopening too fast will absolutely kill a lot of people. It's beyond stupid.

[tony bagadonuts]

Not surprisingly, Vegas is starting to push back against the shutdown. They have to. It's a one-note economy. If the casinos are shut down, everything collapses there.

Here's the mayor bitching about it: https://www.newsweek.com/las-vegas-m...te-now-1498434

Ideas have been tossed around to open up local, non-strip casinos first, so as to allow residents to get back to work. This is dumb, because people will start flocking back to Vegas to go to those casinos instead, and the same problem will start up all over again. Also, most of the casino employees work at the big strip hotels, so this plan doesn't accomplish much.

But I knew this would happen. It was clear that Nevada would be one of the earliest states to push back against a continued shutdown, and would either open back up or get into a big battle with the federal government over it. It's looking like Trump is going to step aside, and the state is going to decide its own fate.

You won't see me at those casinos. Not for a good while.

In other news Mayor Larry Vaughn of Amity Island in New England is pushing Sheriff Brody to open the beaches by the 4th of July.

[Walter Sobchak]

A lot of those people are going to get sick.

It's sad, but eventually stupidity will kill you. And listening to Trump and the right wing hate machine is stupid.

[v12cl]

We just going to ignore the Stanford study?

50X the number of cases vs confirmed cases, meaning a considerably lower death rate.

Community spread in Northern California happened much earlier than reported, basically undetected.

Damn good news.

[OSA]

I disagree, in general healthier people attend gyms. Mine is large enough to easily maintain distance. As far as barbells, yes clean as best you can, but the key is to clean your own hands before and after use.

I’d bring 2 bottles. A bottle of your own disinfectant and a water bottle to each station. Bring a washcloth for use with disinfectant.

You aren’t generating endless trash from used paper towels or wipes.

The commercial disinfectant wipes are gonna be on back order quick.

You aren’t constantly hunting down the gym’s bottles or wipes.


Your own bottle of disinfectant might be a new look for the serious fitness type. Who knows?

The last days before close @ Equinox, they were wiping things down every 90 minutes. Now probably will be every hour. That's enough for me.

[Walter Sobchak]

imagine what it would have been like without this thread.

It is interesting, nearly 4 months after your initial Wuhan/Lab post, the MSM is now reporting this might be legit and probably obvious. Good call. You do understand though when Tom Cotton raised your theory in early February, Brian Williams, CNN and that Fareed guy all called him a conspiracist fear monger. You nailed this, but so did Tucker Carlson in January. That has to sting. The left got it wrong the right got it right. It's called a paradox Sonatine for you.

It's not a Chinese bioweapon. Confirmed by scientists already.

It's very unlikely it escaped from a Chinese research facility. Slight possibility.

Overwhelming chance is it really came from caged animals kept together in unsanitary conditions and then eaten. Wasn't the first virus to originate that way and likely won't be the last.

[RS_]

"We, the Democrats, are the pro-science party."

"Also, we the Democrats believe that gender is a social construct, and in fact there are 52 of them."

"Also, we the Democrats had major Presidential candidates list their preferred pronouns on their Twitter bios, even though none of them ever identified as trans."

"Also, we the Democrats, are totally cool with men competing as women in sports, because there's no advantage. Because we're pro-science."

"Also, we the Democrats think that babies in their mother's wombs aren't human beings, even if days away from being born at the 9-month mark. It's up to the moms whether they want to kill these fully formed human beings, because... science?"

Science. A convenient word to say when attempting to assert false intellectual superiority.

pretty much every single person i know personally is left wing and not a single one agrees with one thing on that list.

this is why we consider you laughably ignorant when it comes to the real world, and dont take you seriously.

Why don't they believe in science?

[tgull]

It is interesting, nearly 4 months after your initial Wuhan/Lab post, the MSM is now reporting this might be legit and probably obvious. Good call. You do understand though when Tom Cotton raised your theory in early February, Brian Williams, CNN and that Fareed guy all called him a conspiracist fear monger. You nailed this, but so did Tucker Carlson in January. That has to sting. The left got it wrong the right got it right. It's called a paradox Sonatine for you.

It's not a Chinese bioweapon. Confirmed by scientists already.

It's very unlikely it escaped from a Chinese research facility. Slight possibility.

Overwhelming chance is it really came from caged animals kept together in unsanitary conditions and then eaten. Wasn't the first virus to originate that way and likely won't be the last.

Either way, and I don't give a shit, you don't shut down a country and create a world depression over some fucking bat flu. I was just pointing out there is a lot of chatter that this originated from a lab. And nobody serious is stating this was a bio weapon so you are reading too many blogs. Stop trying to sound so smart.

[sonatine]

imagine what it would have been like without this thread.

It is interesting, nearly 4 months after your initial Wuhan/Lab post, the MSM is now reporting this might be legit and probably obvious. Good call. You do understand though when Tom Cotton raised your theory in early February, Brian Williams, CNN and that Fareed guy all called him a conspiracist fear monger. You nailed this, but so did Tucker Carlson in January. That has to sting. The left got it wrong the right got it right. It's called a paradox Sonatine for you.

Whats funny is, the people (left and right) denying the lab theory loudest were all on the joint intelligence committee.

Meaning; obviously they knew perfectly well it was from the lab, and they recognized the strategic disadvantages of making that public. But of course, the right wing doesnt play chess, it plays tic tac toe using horse shoes or some shit, so naturally they plunge ahead into the breach, potentially disrupting the supplies of meds and ppe that we are quite literally dependent on China for in the name of cheap political victories.

What made me saddest however was when I pointed out how brazenly unlikely it was that anything like this could happen in nature, people had already gotten guthooked by the 'wet market theory' and treated me like some sort of death tripping conspiracy addicted lunatic, because the only people who agreed with me openly were conspiracy addicted lunatics from the right wing.

[RegGaymer]

Coronavirus is a fake ass media creation!
You heard it here first...

[BCR]

We just going to ignore the Stanford study?

50X the number of cases vs confirmed cases, meaning a considerably lower death rate.

Community spread in Northern California happened much earlier than reported, basically undetected.

Damn good news.

I don’t know what’s new about it? It came to the conclusion that “2.5% and 4.2%.”
of the population already had it. That’s the exact range the modelers studying outbreaks put it at last week when I posted that guys findings. That’s not enough to have any effect at all except for that 2-4%, that’s if they have immunity. I’m not sure that’s even established at this point.

No one thinks this thing kills 10% of anyone. Every case is primarily a hospital admission worthy case. The death rate is optimistic at this point, but 26k of Ca’s 28k cases are still active. It’s kind of what people expected as far as exposure amount. Where CA is exceeding expectations is deaths. They’re low, but it’s early, and they’re younger and far healthier than US average. It’s not bad news, but kind of expected.

[sonatine]

Coronavirus is a fake ass media creation!
You heard it here first...

case in point ^

[RegGaymer]

Not read a single word of this thread btw, nor have I read a single word of the forum in the past couple years.

Consider yourself blessed

[nightmarefish]

We just going to ignore the Stanford study?

50X the number of cases vs confirmed cases, meaning a considerably lower death rate.

Community spread in Northern California happened much earlier than reported, basically undetected.

Damn good news.

I don’t know what’s new about it? It came to the conclusion that “2.5% and 4.2%.”
of the population already had it. That’s the exact range the modelers studying outbreaks put it at last week when I posted that guys findings. That’s not enough to have any effect at all except for that 2-4%, that’s if they have immunity. I’m not sure that’s even established at this point.

No one thinks this thing kills 10% of anyone. Every case is primarily a hospital admission worthy case. The death rate is optimistic at this point, but 26k of Ca’s 28k cases are still active. It’s kind of what people expected as far as exposure amount. Where CA is exceeding expectations is deaths. They’re low, but it’s early, and they’re younger and far healthier than US average. It’s not bad news, but kind of expected.

Don't they figure the death rate for the flu the same way? Or is there a more precise calculation that can be done for the flu? I guess what I'm saying is whenever they post a death rate for any virus or flu or whatever won't it always be higher than what it actually was?

[Hockey Guy]

Not read a single word of this thread btw, nor have I read a single word of the forum in the past couple years.

Consider yourself blessed

Pretty tough for you to claim "You heard it here first" then.

[ErickAA]

We just going to ignore the Stanford study?

50X the number of cases vs confirmed cases, meaning a considerably lower death rate.

Community spread in Northern California happened much earlier than reported, basically undetected.

Damn good news.

I don’t know what’s new about it? It came to the conclusion that “2.5% and 4.2%.”
of the population already had it. That’s the exact range the modelers studying outbreaks put it at last week when I posted that guys findings. That’s not enough to have any effect at all except for that 2-4%, that’s if they have immunity. I’m not sure that’s even established at this point.

No one thinks this thing kills 10% of anyone. Every case is primarily a hospital admission worthy case. The death rate is optimistic at this point, but 26k of Ca’s 28k cases are still active. It’s kind of what people expected as far as exposure amount. Where CA is exceeding expectations is deaths. They’re low, but it’s early, and they’re younger and far healthier than US average. It’s not bad news, but kind of expected.

The Stanford study makes a lot of assumptions and probably undercounts death rate. There is a study in Germany that came out that looked at a lot more patients and the IFR is around 0.4%, which is about double the upper bound of Stanford Study. Still 4x as deadly as the flu for comparison.

Of course, given that indications are some portion of people are going to catch this multiple times, we have to find out whether previous infection makes the second infection milder (even if there isn't temporary total immunity for everyone as hoped).

I know Sonatine has this notion that infection #2 will be just as bad or worse as #1 (and it is certainly possible it is), but there is no indication of this so far, and its more likely it is milder due to some partial immunity.

[blake]

We just going to ignore the Stanford study?

50X the number of cases vs confirmed cases, meaning a considerably lower death rate.

Community spread in Northern California happened much earlier than reported, basically undetected.

Damn good news.

can you link that? that would be encouraging

[BCR]

I don’t know what’s new about it? It came to the conclusion that “2.5% and 4.2%.”
of the population already had it. That’s the exact range the modelers studying outbreaks put it at last week when I posted that guys findings. That’s not enough to have any effect at all except for that 2-4%, that’s if they have immunity. I’m not sure that’s even established at this point.

No one thinks this thing kills 10% of anyone. Every case is primarily a hospital admission worthy case. The death rate is optimistic at this point, but 26k of Ca’s 28k cases are still active. It’s kind of what people expected as far as exposure amount. Where CA is exceeding expectations is deaths. They’re low, but it’s early, and they’re younger and far healthier than US average. It’s not bad news, but kind of expected.

Don't they figure the death rate for the flu the same way? Or is there a more precise calculation that can be done for the flu? I guess what I'm saying is whenever they post a death rate for any virus or flu or whatever won't it always be higher than what it actually was?

I don’t know the answer regarding regular seasonal flu. In outbreaks I’ve seen that they go back and revise down the CFR after they’ve studied the exposure and fatality rate. I’m not sure that’s doable with something with the numbers of garden variety flu.

I know this last flu was said to be really bad. Kind of similar to this if the math holds. The main difference being it’s far more infectious than regular flu and has a slightly worse target range taking out 40 and 50 year olds at a higher rate. Most years flu is milder. This would be like a really super bad flu season that was over twice as infectious. You figure we crossed 100 deaths a month ago today. We crossed 36k today. So say 8 really bad months of these type numbers and 4 hopefully milder summer months and you’d be looking at like 300k dead if not for the shutdown.

The caveat will be what’s it look like if we open it back up. I have no idea. Pure conjecture.

I mean with us still piling up 2k deaths a day now, and 36k deaths in a month, we are going to be over 60k a month from today even if we start rapidly declining. Every day from here forward needs a 500 death day in second half of month to keep us at only 65k deaths on may 17. That’s close to a really horrible flu year in 2 months with most of everyone locked down. We will get a respite from the lockdown, but I see no way it doesn’t fire up again and easily cross 100 to 125k deaths by end of the year. Even with numbers much lower than we are racking up now. It’s flattening, but it’s a long way down and it will rise again as we open shit up. No real comparison to the flu from what I can tell. Simply much worse considering we don’t do shit for flu. We need a vaccine and this will be old news at that point

[ErickAA]

splitthis: Alere is a bootleg company that sold non working inr machines

Whatever happened in their INR machine business, Alere is regarded as a very popular, well-regarded company in the clinical HIV testing arena.

[BetCheckBet]

A lot of those people are going to get sick.

It's sad, but eventually stupidity will kill you. And listening to Trump and the right wing hate machine is stupid.

The real sad cases is that for the most part they will be fine. It’s not about themselves but spreading the disease to high risk populations. Sane people are not worried about their health. It’s fair that liberal media has hyped the danger way too much. But sane people are worried about others health.