So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[Dan Druff]

Here's the basic problem we're dealing with.

I think abown83 said that, as a country, we're actually better off if we just get it overwith, infect as many as quickly as possible, get herd immunity, and yes, a bunch of people are going to die. However, the percentage of people dead is still relatively low compared to the country as a whole, so it can continue functioning without these people, especially with most being old/sick already, and thus a burden upon society anyway.

Harsh but sadly true. Unfortunately, we can't just take that solution because human beings aren't numbers on a balance sheet. You're not going to go along with this if it's you or your mom who ends up in the ground, just so the country can be better long term. Thus, we could not use such a solution unless we were of hive mind, which human beings aren't.

I mention this because there are some realities which both sides don't want to face.

The left doesn't want to face the reality that the economy is going to be completely fucked if we stay down for much longer, and that will also bring its own set of problems (including death and despair). At the same time, there is no game-changer which would allow us them to give a date when it's safe to open up. Therefore, they have to lie to everyone and claim that we can contact trace and test our way out of this mess.

The right doesn't want to face the reality that we are realistically looking at 300k-1m people dying from this, and that opening things up will put us closer to the higher end of that number, because these people get deprived of possible advances (treatments/vaccines) down the road. So they lie about the likely death rate and death toll, and keep trying to compare it (incorrectly) to the seasonal flu or swine flu.

And while I've always hated the King Solomon middle-of-the-road approach, as it tends to be a cowardly copout in most cases, the best solution really does lie somewhere in the middle.

We need to reopen up, but we need to do it intelligently. Testing can play a part in this, but more to discern whether or not the current phase of reopening has come with acceptable loss (or hopefully minimal loss), and this must be done about 3 weeks after each phase begins.

That's the smart way. Unfortunately, neither side is interested in being smart about this.

[Salty_Aus]

Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.

Look at our own COVID-19-infected member drawingdead. I asked him where he's been in the past 7 days. He said the supermarket and the auto parts store.

Okay, what next? We're stuck. It would require an insane amount of resources (and perhaps be impossible) to track down everyone at these stores when he was there (including those who were there hours before him).

If there were almost no cases in the US, then yes, all resources could be focused upon guys like drawingdead to find any possible carrier. In a country where the cases will not be that low any time soon (even with continued social distancing), it's impossible.

Contact tracing can only work if:

1) There is a complete lockdown where nobody goes out into public at all, so it's easy to trace down who they've been in contact with
-or-
2) There are very few overall cases, so massive resources can be dedicated to trace down possible contacts of the few cases -- almost the way you'd search for a patient zero

The left lives in some fantasy world right now where we can contact trace soon if we just continue hunkering down.

Contact tracing only works if you've basically contained the virus, and are getting very few new cases.
Not when you're getting 30,000 new cases per day.... that ship has already sailed for now.
You'd need to get the new infections under 500 per day in the US to realistically contact trace.
Maybe if your self confessed genius had done his job, you'd be in a position to contact trace.
Honestly, I think you should just give up and let the virus "wash over" the community, you're never going to contain it now IMHO... leave the contact tracing for first world countries. *cheeky smile*

[Dan Druff]

Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.

Look at our own COVID-19-infected member drawingdead. I asked him where he's been in the past 7 days. He said the supermarket and the auto parts store.

Okay, what next? We're stuck. It would require an insane amount of resources (and perhaps be impossible) to track down everyone at these stores when he was there (including those who were there hours before him).

If there were almost no cases in the US, then yes, all resources could be focused upon guys like drawingdead to find any possible carrier. In a country where the cases will not be that low any time soon (even with continued social distancing), it's impossible.

Contact tracing can only work if:

1) There is a complete lockdown where nobody goes out into public at all, so it's easy to trace down who they've been in contact with
-or-
2) There are very few overall cases, so massive resources can be dedicated to trace down possible contacts of the few cases -- almost the way you'd search for a patient zero

The left lives in some fantasy world right now where we can contact trace soon if we just continue hunkering down.

Contact tracing only works if you've basically contained the virus, and are getting very few new cases.
Not when you're getting 30,000 new cases per day.... that ship has already sailed for now.
You'd need to get the new infections under 500 per day in the US to realistically contact trace.
Maybe if your self confessed genius had done his job, you'd be in a position to contact trace.
Honestly, I think you should just give up and let the virus "wash over" the community, you're never going to contain it now IMHO... leave the contact tracing for first world countries. *cheeky smile*

Yes, that's what I said (the first part of what you wrote). Contact tracing only works if you've either contained it or if there are barely any cases yet. It could also theoretically work if there were virtually zero instances of people going out in public, which of course isn't possible in the US.

Aus got lucky, though. The lack of spreading there was either due to a lower number of imported cases into the country, the reversed climate (it showed up in the middle of your summer), or both.

[Walter Sobchak]

Here's the basic problem we're dealing with.

I think abown83 said that, as a country, we're actually better off if we just get it overwith, infect as many as quickly as possible, get herd immunity, and yes, a bunch of people are going to die. However, the percentage of people dead is still relatively low compared to the country as a whole, so it can continue functioning without these people, especially with most being old/sick already, and thus a burden upon society anyway.

Harsh but sadly true. Unfortunately, we can't just take that solution because human beings aren't numbers on a balance sheet. You're not going to go along with this if it's you or your mom who ends up in the ground, just so the country can be better long term. Thus, we could not use such a solution unless we were of hive mind, which human beings aren't.

I mention this because there are some realities which both sides don't want to face.

The left doesn't want to face the reality that the economy is going to be completely fucked if we stay down for much longer, and that will also bring its own set of problems (including death and despair). At the same time, there is no game-changer which would allow us them to give a date when it's safe to open up. Therefore, they have to lie to everyone and claim that we can contact trace and test our way out of this mess.

The right doesn't want to face the reality that we are realistically looking at 300k-1m people dying from this, and that opening things up will put us closer to the higher end of that number, because these people get deprived of possible advances (treatments/vaccines) down the road. So they lie about the likely death rate and death toll, and keep trying to compare it (incorrectly) to the seasonal flu or swine flu.

And while I've always hated the King Solomon middle-of-the-road approach, as it tends to be a cowardly copout in most cases, the best solution really does lie somewhere in the middle.

We need to reopen up, but we need to do it intelligently. Testing can play a part in this, but more to discern whether or not the current phase of reopening has come with acceptable loss (or hopefully minimal loss), and this must be done about 3 weeks after each phase begins.

That's the smart way. Unfortunately, neither side is interested in being smart about this.

I disagree. The left knows the economy will be fucked. Most of what I've heard on the left is "listen to the experts." And the experts say we can begin to open up, but only after we are prepared to open up, which we aren't yet. the experts also say "open up in phases, and make sure each phase doesn't screw us up before we move on to the next phase." Whereas the protesters are saying "everything back to normal, right now."

So if you're for a phased opening, you're agreeing with the left.

We also need to be better prepared for future events of this type. And we can be, but not with people like Trump in office.

[Salty_Aus]

Contact tracing only works if you've basically contained the virus, and are getting very few new cases.
Not when you're getting 30,000 new cases per day.... that ship has already sailed for now.
You'd need to get the new infections under 500 per day in the US to realistically contact trace.
Maybe if your self confessed genius had done his job, you'd be in a position to contact trace.
Honestly, I think you should just give up and let the virus "wash over" the community, you're never going to contain it now IMHO... leave the contact tracing for first world countries. *cheeky smile*

Yes, that's what I said (the first part of what you wrote). Contact tracing only works if you've either contained it or if there are barely any cases yet. It could also theoretically work if there were virtually zero instances of people going out in public, which of course isn't possible in the US.

Aus got lucky, though. The lack of spreading there was either due to a lower number of imported cases into the country, the reversed climate (it showed up in the middle of your summer), or both.

I wouldn't say it was luck.
In the early days of this virus we had more confirmed cases then the US, we were like 5th for total cases on the global list for a few days.

The difference being we actually tested quite comprehensively in the early days, we did nearly 10,000 tests while you guys scratched your bum and did 477 total.
We were nearly overwhelmed too, we were so busy testing those from China, Iran, Italy and the rest of Europe that we allowed travel to and from the US, and then 90% of our cases came in via the US. I honestly thought we were fucked when we were getting 500 new cases per day. (mostly directly from the US)

Yeah the weather has played a part I feel, perhaps mandatory BCG vaccinations for so many years too has helped.

[Dan Druff]

Here's the basic problem we're dealing with.

I think abown83 said that, as a country, we're actually better off if we just get it overwith, infect as many as quickly as possible, get herd immunity, and yes, a bunch of people are going to die. However, the percentage of people dead is still relatively low compared to the country as a whole, so it can continue functioning without these people, especially with most being old/sick already, and thus a burden upon society anyway.

Harsh but sadly true. Unfortunately, we can't just take that solution because human beings aren't numbers on a balance sheet. You're not going to go along with this if it's you or your mom who ends up in the ground, just so the country can be better long term. Thus, we could not use such a solution unless we were of hive mind, which human beings aren't.

I mention this because there are some realities which both sides don't want to face.

The left doesn't want to face the reality that the economy is going to be completely fucked if we stay down for much longer, and that will also bring its own set of problems (including death and despair). At the same time, there is no game-changer which would allow us them to give a date when it's safe to open up. Therefore, they have to lie to everyone and claim that we can contact trace and test our way out of this mess.

The right doesn't want to face the reality that we are realistically looking at 300k-1m people dying from this, and that opening things up will put us closer to the higher end of that number, because these people get deprived of possible advances (treatments/vaccines) down the road. So they lie about the likely death rate and death toll, and keep trying to compare it (incorrectly) to the seasonal flu or swine flu.

And while I've always hated the King Solomon middle-of-the-road approach, as it tends to be a cowardly copout in most cases, the best solution really does lie somewhere in the middle.

We need to reopen up, but we need to do it intelligently. Testing can play a part in this, but more to discern whether or not the current phase of reopening has come with acceptable loss (or hopefully minimal loss), and this must be done about 3 weeks after each phase begins.

That's the smart way. Unfortunately, neither side is interested in being smart about this.

I disagree. The left knows the economy will be fucked. Most of what I've heard on the left is "listen to the experts." And the experts say we can begin to open up, but only after we are prepared to open up, which we aren't yet. the experts also say "open up in phases, and make sure each phase doesn't screw us up before we move on to the next phase." Whereas the protesters are saying "everything back to normal, right now."

So if you're for a phased opening, you're agreeing with the left.

We also need to be better prepared for future events of this type. And we can be, but not with people like Trump in office.

Overall, I agree more with the left on this one, yes. However, I have lots of issues with their ideas, as well. The fact that we're even talking about contact tracing at this point shows that the left doesn't get it.

The left doesn't just defer to the experts, either. They defer to the experts when the experts say things they like. When those same experts don't say things they like, then those people are accused of saying what Trump wants them to say.

Besides, it's clear to me that we can only half-trust the information we get from the government and media, because they're engaging in what they think is lying for the greater good.

Remember all of the lies about the masks, and the subsequent admission that this was a lie for the good of hospital workers?

I believe we're still getting fed other lies and other information is being suppressed. As I mentioned before, I think they are exaggerating the true danger to people under 35, for fear that if they don't, these people won't social distance. Which is probably a valid concern, but during a crisis like this, we need truthful information, not lies meant to push us to act how they want.

[TheXFactor]

The left doesn't just defer to the experts, either. They defer to the experts when the experts say things they like. When those same experts don't say things they like, then those people are accused of saying what Trump wants them to say.

Besides, it's clear to me that we can only half-trust the information we get from the government and media, because they're engaging in what they think is lying for the greater good.

The media must stop having these "experts" from the Heritage Foundation, Cato Institute and the American Enterprise Institute on these news programs and talk shows. They are not fucking "experts". They are bias representatives of conservative Republican think tanks that have an agenda. The Cato Institute was setup by Charles Koch to lie about climate change and the oil & gas industry.

[BeerAndPoker]

I think a booming profession to be in after quarantine is over is being a divorce lawyer.

You can bet a ton of divorces will happen once this shit ends.

[MumblesBadly]

Druff,

I found the scientists you mentioned during this week’s radio show who were just recently only projecting about 70,000 deaths in the US from the corona plague. They’ve updated their model and projection just a tad.

Key coronavirus model doubles projected US deaths to 134,000 as social distancing fades
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/healt...ths/index.html

[abrown83]

I am going to go through some simple stats that should highlight why the IFR of 0.2% (2X flu) argument just can't be possible. NYC has had over 20,000 "extra" deaths year over year over a typical year. Covid is going to be the reason for pretty much all of these extra deaths. Its population is 8 million. If the IFR was 0.2% then 10 million New Yorkers would need to be infected, well over the entire population.

We know from multiple antibody tests the infected rate popping up is in the 15-20% range.

An IFR of 1% (10x flu) gives us 2 million infected, which is 25% of the population, which is lines up much better than IFR's of 0.2-0.3%, which just doesn't work in NYC (or any other city in the world that has been heavily hit).

There may be some slight variation in strains, but it isn't that much. This thing is just real deadly and hasn't spread that much.

You are missing one incredibly important point, New York for terms of numbers that they are using isn’t 8 million. New York City including suburbs is 20 million but the issue is that spreads to a few states so maybe 12 million people? Look up the county numbers, highest counties are “New York City” but really suburbs.

Also how does 45% Brown people skew the numbers, since they seem to be more susceptible to the virus?

[Tellafriend]

hey guys great news!

https://scitechdaily.com/coronavirus...tiplies-there/


"More extensive testing using not only nose and throat swabs, but also rectal swabs or stool samples may thus be needed."

Indeed. One of the stocks i follow, EXAS (the shit in a box for colon cancer company) has been working to get approval for just that.

[Krypt]

hey guys great news!

https://scitechdaily.com/coronavirus...tiplies-there/


"More extensive testing using not only nose and throat swabs, but also rectal swabs or stool samples may thus be needed."

Indeed. One of the stocks i follow, EXAS (the shit in a box for colon cancer company) has been working to get approval for just that.

you’re such a fucking clown

[tgull]

Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.

Look at our own COVID-19-infected member Drawingdead. I asked him where he's been in the past 7 days. He said the supermarket and the auto parts store.

Okay, what next? We're stuck. It would require an insane amount of resources (and perhaps be impossible) to track down everyone at these stores when he was there (including those who were there hours before him).

If there were almost no cases in the US, then yes, all resources could be focused upon guys like Drawingdead to find any possible carrier. In a country where the cases will not be that low any time soon (even with continued social distancing), it's impossible.

Contact tracing can only work if:

1) There is a complete lockdown where nobody goes out into public at all, so it's easy to trace down who they've been in contact with
-or-
2) There are very few overall cases, so massive resources can be dedicated to trace down possible contacts of the few cases -- almost the way you'd search for a patient zero

The left lives in some fantasy world right now where we can contact trace soon if we just continue hunkering down.

Contact Tracing has to be the dumbest idea ever, to institute in the middle of a US pandemic. Consider:

1) You would have to hire probably a half a million people to do it correctly in the a country this size, both geography and population
2) You would have to screen and do back ground checks on all these people, over half would fail the initial background check
3) You would have to train all these people
4) You would have to get all these people set up on payroll, benefits, etc..
5) You would need to set up a management structure to manage all these testers. Half would quit after a month since it likely will be a dangerous job
6) You would effectively have to create a new Department like Homeland Security in the early 2000s, which took years to finally get it right
7) You would need to get Congress to appropriate the funds

The whole thing is positively laughable, but it's a CNN talking point so I can see why a select few parrot it on this site. Most people here cannot even consistently find their way to work without a GPS, so to understand the complexity of contact tracing in the US is too much to ask. Really it is. Contact tracing is something that takes years to implement, and that assumes you lock everyone down for months like you did in Wuhan and deliver 99% of groceries to it's effective prisoners. Lots of luck on that in this country. See how well beach mitigation is going in this country.

[abrown83]

I am going to go through some simple stats that should highlight why the IFR of 0.2% (2X flu) argument just can't be possible. NYC has had over 20,000 "extra" deaths year over year over a typical year. Covid is going to be the reason for pretty much all of these extra deaths. Its population is 8 million. If the IFR was 0.2% then 10 million New Yorkers would need to be infected, well over the entire population.

We know from multiple antibody tests the infected rate popping up is in the 15-20% range.

An IFR of 1% (10x flu) gives us 2 million infected, which is 25% of the population, which is lines up much better than IFR's of 0.2-0.3%, which just doesn't work in NYC (or any other city in the world that has been heavily hit).

There may be some slight variation in strains, but it isn't that much. This thing is just real deadly and hasn't spread that much.

You are missing one incredibly important point, New York for terms of numbers that they are using isn’t 8 million. New York City including suburbs is 20 million but the issue is that spreads to a few states so maybe 12 million people? Look up the county numbers, highest counties are “New York City” but really suburbs.

Also how does 45% Brown people skew the numbers, since they seem to be more susceptible to the virus?

Ahh I figured out the math

13,500 people divided by 1,2000,000 to 1,600,000 infected= .8% to 1.1% death rate.

I am interested in comparing those numbers versus where I live for example...

We have tested 1 in every 182 people in the State (one of the highest in the country).

20% of our tests come back positive.

Now if we figure 40% of people show no symptoms, 40% show mild symptoms....so let's say 75% of those people never get tested.

So we actually have 3x the number of reported cases.

That gives my State a .6% death rate.

But of the 188 deaths, 87 are over the age of 80 (18.7% death rate), 75 are 60-80 (5.5% death rate), 22 are 40-60 (.6% death rate), 4 are 18-40 (.1% death rate).

My State is White and very old, NYC is younger and very brown, but has a higher death rate. Guessing this has something to do with the air pollution and minorities in NYC? Curious what your thoughts are.

[tgull]

Let's give me some credit here. I was the first to wave the proverbial flag on this site that obese were a target of this virus, I just was. I may have been among the first in the country. Now everyone is coming around. Not saying I was like Sonatine predicting the Wuhan lab connection in January, but it's not bad if you ask me.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ns-closed.html

[gauchojake]

With a sub 20 BMI you're safe bottomset

[gauchojake]

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original

So that's bad news for the ol herd immunity theory

[Tellafriend]

Indeed. One of the stocks i follow, EXAS (the shit in a box for colon cancer company) has been working to get approval for just that.

you’re such a fucking clown

Still sore I pointed out that you are a broke dick? Use your $1200 to restock:

[blake]

i'm sorry but i love drakkar. haven't had it since high school but still

[MrTickle]

This disease map has Coronavirus where it belongs IMO, and also gives some perspective just how it stacks up against other diseases pre vaccines. It aint measles, and it aint smallpox, and it aint Ebola. But it is A LOT more deadly and debilitating than flu.

What we don't know that could make it worse is how long immunity lasts or whether there is long term complications, especially following mild illness.

If this was an endemic disease chances are very high we would all just get it as kids, it wouldn't even be that bad for most, and we would have some level of immunity through our lives so that it was never a problem, until maybe you get old and your immune system starts dysfuncitoning. Noone would be having their first exposure at 40+ years of age the way we are now.

I don't know for sure this is how it would play out if it was endemic, but I think there is a fairly high likelihood.

that scale is so tilting