yeah but their version of control is something our society isnt wired for. they sealed off a whole fucking province the size of washington state and just.. let it burn out. anyone who complained vanished.
like i dont see a middle ground for us; either this totally nothingburgers because white people just arent susceptible to it or we are talking about a nation-wide lockdown police state with the occasional food riots.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Lots of family units and kids to pass this thing around. I mean how do schools go back to normal if there is no vaccine. Then it gets passed to their parents and then up the chain to the grandparents. Kids can't keep from infecting each other.
I don't think this thing was widespread. If it had been, we'd have more of those places like WA where 19 patients died of CV. Although maybe there are other places like this where no one was test. It is entirely possible we're quite infected, but I don't think so because just not enough people in hospitals. I flew Monday 8 days ago and thought there was a low chance of catching it.
Worst part is we have no idea how many people are asymptomatic. We know they exist but have literally 0 clue. I don't even know if they can test for antibodies to see if people had it in the past.
Westerners just aren't suited to being locked - down. I'm not sure it can be done here or in the US.
Most folks understand the situation and would be willing to self isolate at the very least. But thousands will not.
What remains to be seen is does the virus peek again in China and South Korea once they relax the quarantine.
Also the warmer weather doesn't appear to really help. Trump saying it will disappear like the seasonal flu with summer approaching is likely not true. Rampant in summer temp all over the world.
contrast the rather optimistic tone of that article with the one just published by the Washington Post
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartanntp
very dismal times ahead forecast
and it seems UK & US is believes in the predictions of the English modelers rather than the one from Israel...
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
-105 Israel manufactured this
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
I can't believe there are people like bottomset who think this is all made up media bullshit
The fat fucking sorry excuse for a president that you nitwits worship has even declared a national emergency. A few weeks too late and many more are gonna die now that wouldn't have but whatever right? Until someone you're close with dies who maybe wouldn't have had we had a real president in office. And by real president Im talking bush reagan obama ect.
This maniac claimed a few weeks ago this was just a hoax. How can any you guys who support him still back him? You gotta be straight stupid to still support this clown.
I Wish romney or any other republican who ran in 2016 was president right now. Anyone but this fucking idiot and I would feel a whole hell of a lot better right now about my safety and safety of my friends family and the american public
Last edited by big dick; 03-17-2020 at 10:05 PM.
That really smart people are miles apart makes sense as we truly don’t know anything well enough to model imo.
We have China first. We can’t trust their numbers and we will never have the will to suppress it as they did. Then Iran who we can’t trust whatsoever. I bet their numbers are off by a magnitude of 100. Then South Korea who was incredibly proactive in a way that passed us by a month ago.
Italy is the only template of a country that is somewhat similar, yet a decade older in median age, and caught early and unprepared. I trust their death totals completely. But they've been overwhelmed since the jump, so they can’t waste a second testing asymptomatic people. How can you model anything when you have death numbers that are unreliable in most places hit so far and no total cases to calculate the deaths into?
I think it will get nasty in clusters. but I truthfully wouldn’t be shocked by 25- 50k or 500k dead. Or a million. If brilliant number crunchers are miles apart, would you bet your net worth on o/u 150k by end year?
That seems way lower than we can expect. Better than the best case scenario by the English model and most estimates. I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking either side of that number though. Italy sounds like hell on earth atm and yet it’s still only 2500 dead right now. If they aren’t at the peak at all and it ends up 25000, that still wouldn’t tell you a ton as far as we are concerned.
I have no idea and I’ve been watching it for months. Outside Italy, most of Europe is on a similar timeline to us. We are more like those countries than anything hit thus far. We are just so dissimilar to China or Iran or South Korea in every way that I can’t make anything of those countries.
When faced with a difficult decision, ask yourself "What would Micon do?", then do the opposite.
PFA Rookie of the Year Awards
2012: The Templar (unknown)
2013: Jasep $5000+
2015: Micon's gofundme legal defense $3k begging for 100k:
2018: 4Dragons
2019: Dutch Boyd: Mike Postle
2020: Covid19
2021: SMIFlorida and some sort of shit coins for $50k
2022: BDubs leaks chums club info
2023: 22nd Feb 4th Dec Youtube channels removed
2024: Dustin Morgan wins Chrissy's $1000 contest
it's like 20 pages long but I will post the first page for everyone to see without clicking the link
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin,
Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria
Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van
Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker,
Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.
On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London
Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
Helpful chart.
I was sneezing tonight so I looked this up. Not corona.
More likely because it's cold in southern CA tonight (30s where I am), and the heater is on, so dust is probably blowing in the air and causing me to sneeze.
Flu and coronavirus have very similar symptoms, though if you have a lot of nasal congestion, it's probably the flu and not corona.
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